International
2009-04-01 - Scotland vs Iceland
A Sports Betting Pick by Gooner
Football: International, 2010 FIFA World Cup
UEFA European Qualifiers
Wednesday 1st April 2009 - Kickoff 20:00
Scotland (3rd - Group 9 - 1-1-2 2:5 4 pts)
So Scotland were outclassed by the Dutch as expected - but the real battle for Scotland was always going to be for second place so it's imperative that the players forget about the weekend and get about winning home games.
And winning at home is something that Scotland have generally managed to do quite well in qualifying competitions - with a 12-7-3 home record (54%) since that start of 2001.
In Euro2008 qualifying Scotland ran up a 5-0-1 record beating both France and Ukraine, and only losing 1-2 at home to Italy.
Scotland Team News :
Scotland have been handed a huge boost with the news vice-captain Stephen McManus should be fit to face Iceland after missing the defeat in Holland with an ankle injury.
Spurs defender Alan Hutton is also in line for a starting place with 37-year-old Graham Alexander and Wolves player Christophe Berra likely to make way.
GROUP FORM
06/09/08 L 0-1 A v FYR Macedonia
10/09/08 W 2-1 A v Iceland
11/10/08 D 0-0 H v Norway
28/03/09 L 0-3 A v Netherlands
Iceland (2nd - Group 9 - 1-1-2 4:6 4 pts)
Iceland had the weekend off, and so will have had plenty of time to prepare for this game, but the players may not have enjoyed reflecting on their last result a 1-2 home defeat by the Faroe Islands in a friendly game.
Iceland's qualification form is also patchy at best, with the solitary victory coming in a 1-0 home win over FYR Macedonia.
Travelling form has never been a strength of Icelandic football, with the national team recording a 4-2-16 string of results since the start of 2001. (72% loss rate)
Iceland started Euro2008 with a fine 3-0 win at Northern Ireland but then squandered that start by losing the five other away games without scoring a goal.
Again, Iceland started this campaign with a good 2-2 draw in Norway, but slowly that level of football is slipping away.
GROUP FORM
06/09/08 D 2-2 A v Norway
10/09/08 L 1-2 H v Scotland
11/10/08 L 0-2 A v Netherlands
15/10/08 W 1-0 H v FYR Macedonia
Group 9 Standings
Team Pl W D L GF GA PtsScotland beat Iceland 2-1 in Reykjavik in the reverse fixture back in September 2008.
Netherlands 4 4 0 0 8 1 12
Iceland 4 1 1 2 4 6 4
Scotland 4 1 1 2 2 5 4
FYR Macedonia 3 1 0 2 2 3 3
Norway 3 0 2 1 2 3 2
Despite the fact that The Netherlands are running away with the group, there is still plenty to play for as the eight best runners-ups from the nine groups will take part in a two-legged playoff for a World Cup spot.
That means that a draw does not really suit either side, a win being essential to lift the points total.
The Betting Verdict
Scotland have done quite well against sides ranked as "minnows" (under 800 in my ratings) - running up a 9-0-1 record, including a 2-1 win in 2003 over Iceland.
Scotland have beaten Iceland in all five previous meetings at all venues, with a total goal difference of 10-2.
IT all seems to point towards a home win - and the price on Scotland is higher than the 1.35 to 1.40 that I'd expected to see.
The Pick :
Scotland 2-0 Iceland
