International
2009-06-17 - South Africa vs New Zealand
A Sports Betting Pick by Gooner
Football: International, FIFA Confederations Cup
Wednesday, 17th June 2009 - Kickoff 19:30 GMT
South Africa (FIFA Rank 74)
South Africa's first game in the confedrations Cup confirmed everything that I'd read about the host side in the last six months.
Technically the players are well skilled and athletic, but the style of play is very individualistic, a curious blend of African and Brazilian styles, that possibly only works when you have players that are "world class" and can beat their man.
The Bafana Bafana lack those sort of players and as a consequence they were unable to run their posession and territorial advantage against Iraq into good chances - although only incompetance from Parker upfront in the 85th minute prevented a late winning goal.
South Africa desperately need to win this match to maintain a chance of progressing to the semi-finals, but will they be able to break the shackles of coach Joel Santana's defensively minded system and actually play their natural game?
New Zealand (FIFA Rank 82)
Let's be clear about this - as Oceania Champions New Zealand are the minnows of the competition - and every game that they play at this level is a huge learning experience for the side.
Without a professional league at home, some of these players are virtually amateur often are playing in front of just 300-400 spectators in the local championship. However, most of the side are full-time professionals, plying their trade in a myriad of minor leagues.
New Zealand are playing in their 4th Confederations Cup, and this is their 11th group match, and if you are looking for trends then I should point that New Zealand have lost all 10 of their previous group games at this level.
But the level of football is improving, and surely that is one of the aims of the Confederations Cup when they include the minnows, and this New Zealand side does contain two good strikers in Smeltz and Killen, and the "All Whites" do actually try to get forward and score - a marked improvement on previous sides that simply tried to keep the score down.
Possible Teams
Khune
Booth, Gaxa, Masilela, Davids
Mokoena, Sibaya, Pienaar, Modise
Mashego, Parker
New Zealand
Moss
Mulligan, Lochhead, Vicelich, Boyens
Bertos, Elliott, Brown, Barron
Smeltz, Killen
The Betting Verdict
The New Zealand side are still defensively naive, and it is stretching the imagination to believe that they will keep a clean sheet against South Africa - who will dominate that the game.
However, New Zealand are tall and strong in the air, scoring two goals against Italy from set pieces and a 3rd from a penalty, and I can see New Zealand getting a goal during the match.
However, South Africa have the individual skills to create more, and I expect the host to grab a much needed victory.
The Pick :
South Africa 2-1 New Zealand (maybe 2-0)
BEST BETTING TIP :
I expect SOUTH AFRICA to win - but a fair price would be 1.50 (1/2) not the lowly prices on offer.New Zealand fans (both of you) or backers of the underdogs might want a couple of speculative score anytime bets on the Kiwi strikers to have something to cheer :
- Shane Smeltz (#9) score anytime 5.00 at Ladbrokes
- Chris Killen (#10) score anytime 4.50 at Paddy Power
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
I feel that the +1.5 goal handicap means that NEW ZEALAND are worth a shot not to lose by two goals - although that does mean that we probably need New Zealand to score.
