Tennis
2009-07-05 - WIMBLEDON Mens Open vs
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
It's that time of the year again as the third Tennis Grand Slam of the year at one of the World's most famous sporting arenas begins - Wimbledon.
This year we have already received the first surprise of this years tournament as Rafael Nadal has exited before the first ball has been struck. The second change, and altogether a good surprise, is the roof covering Centre Court meaning the weather will not play as much havoc as it has done. It won't be a surprise if this is the driest tournament we have had in years!
First Quarter of the Draw
The first quarter is now devoid of the number 1 seed in Nadal which meant the organisers had to move a couple of the seeds around to ensure there was still a balance to the tournament. This boiled down to Juan Martin Del Potro, the number 5 seed, moving to the top of the draw.
This is not necessarily a good thing with the dangeround Lleyton Hewitt, a former Wimbledon winner and World Number 1, being scheduled to meet Del Potro in the 2nd round. Del Potro has not had the best previous grass court results which has opened up this top quarter of the draw.
Other dangerous players await Del Potro in the top half with Dmitry Tursunov seeded to meet him in the 3rd round if they both progress that far. Tursunov won a grass tournament last week at Eastbourne in the last warm up tournament before Wimbledon.
Someone who may take real advantage of the absence of Rafael Nadal may be a twice former runner up here at Wimbledon - Andy Roddick. There are some concerns after he hurt his ankle 2 weeks ago at Queens but it seems his retirement was a precaution after all. Roddick has a tough opener with Jeremy Chardy of France, but will then be seeded to meet Dimitrov, Melzer and Davydenko to make the Quarter Final. This should not propose a problem for Roddick if the ankle is fine and his form this season will give him a real chance.
Possible Quarter Final - Hewitt v Roddick
Quarter Winner - Andy Roddick
Second Quarter of the Draw
The 2nd Quarter is headed up by Andy Murray, the great British hope, and the reigning Champion of Queens, usually a tournament which gives a good indication of Wimbledon success. This year he managed to win that tournament thanks in large part to the absence of Nadal, Djokovic, Federer, Tsonga and a injury pull out for Roddick.
However, Murray is playing at a very good level and will be going very close this season. He has been paired with a good first round opponent in Robert Kendrick and should not be posed too many problems en route to the Quarter Finals. The schedule expects him to meet Gulbis, Troicki and Safin before the Quarter Finals, all very beatable opponents.
Gilles Simon is the 2nd highest rated seed in this quarter, but the real danger comes from Fernando Gonzalez who beat Murray in the Quarter Finals at the French Open this season. Gonzalez has had decent, if unspectacular, results on grass previously but the draw seems to have been kind.
Possible Quarter Final- Murray v Gonzalez
Quarter Winner- Andy Murray
Third Quarter of Tee Draw
James Blake was another person who was moved around due to the withdrawal of Nadal and he now sits at the top of the 3rd quarter. However his main threat will come from Novak Djokovic.
Novak Djokovic faces Julien Benneteau in the first round and should come through to the quarter final with the draw shaping up the way it has. His real threat to that position will be Mardy Fish, a possible 3rd round opponent, but the American has been surprisingly unsuccessful on previous visits to this tournament. For a man with a big serve and big groundstrokes, I would have expected him to have done better here.
While Blake sits atop of this section, the main threat to Djokovic may come from the big serving Croation Marin Cilic. The number 11 seed in this tournament has all the weapons that will make him a danger on this surface. Unfortunately for him he has not had the best draw with a possible meeting with fellow big serving Croation Ivan Ljubicic or big serving American Sam Querrey in the 2nd round.
This problem is compounded with his potential 3rd round opponent- Tommy Haas. The German was about 2cm from beating Roger Federer in the French Open recently in the 4th round when he was leading by 2 sets with a break point to go 4-3 up in the 3rd set. Haas quickly recovered from that defeat to win a grass tournament in Halle, a tournament Federer pulled out of after dominating it in recent seasons. Haas showed some real quality in beating Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Novak Djokovic in winning that tournament.
Possible Quarter Final - Haas v Djokovic
Quarter Winner - Tommy Haas
Fourth Quarter of the Draw
The final quarter is the home of the latest Career Grand Slam winner Roger Federer who also happens to be the odds on favourite to win this tournament. Experts had greatly exaggerated the downfall of Federer after recent defeats to Nadal, Djokovic and Murray but now the converse seems to be happening as the same experts now call him unbeatable here.
The draw has been kind for Federer with possible meetings with Philip Kohlschreiber in the 3rd round and Robin Soderling in the 4th round being obstacles. However, Federer would be expected to dispose of those challenges on his way to the Quarter Final where his first real test will occur.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is not seeded to meet Federer but must be considered one of the real dark horses in this tournament. With his big serve and flashy groundstrokes, Tsonga also has a strong pedigree on this surface. His real problems will come in the shape of the giant Croation Ivo Karlovic in the 3rd round, although Karlovic has not had a good tournament here for a few years which is a surprise.
Another dangerous opponent in this section is the man of 2009, Fernando Verdasco. Verdasco has had a really good year, highlighted by his performance at the Australian Open at the beginning of the year. However, his form has not been as solid of late and he faces a tough grass court opponent in the 2nd round in Nicolas Mahut. Verdasco has performed well here at Wimbledon in the last few years but has yet to progress beyond the 4th round.
Possible Quarter Final- Tsonga v Federer
Quarter Winner- Roger Federer
Semi Final and Beyond
It seems from the way the draw has panned out that we will have a final consisting of Roger Federer against one of the Andys, either Murray or Roddick. Andy Murray has looked in the best position to win a Grand Slam and the loss of Rafael Nadal to the draw seems to have opened the door for him to make the final.
The final would be close to call, Murray having the better of the meetings between himself and Federer, whereas Federer has the experience of winning this tournament and Grand Slams in general. The gulf was clear when the two met in the final of the US Open last year.
I think Federer is rightly favourite to win this tournament but his odds seem far too low and so I will tip Murray and hope to lay off if he makes the final.
BEST BETTING TIP :
Winner Andy Murray 3.70 at PinnacleSportsFirst Quarter Winner Andy Roddick 2.62 at Paddy Power
Third Quarter Winner Tommy Haas 6.00 at Bet365
