Brazilian Serie A
2009-08-02 - Flamengo vs Nautico
A Sports Betting Pick by Merlin
Football: Brazil, Serie A
Sunday 2nd August 2009 at 4.00pm (local)
Venue: Estádio Jornalista Mário Filho (MARACANA), in Rio de Janeiro.
FLAMENGO (7th - Home Rec : 4-3-1 15:8)
Fla are no world beaters right now but are positioned respectably in 10th which sets them up nicely to start pushing for that coveted top 6 finish.
At the time of writing they are yet to play leaders, Atletico MG on Thursday night but frankly that's by-the-by and has no direct relationship with this game, save an injury to a key player.
Two games ago Flamengo took to the Sao Paulo highway and made it very worthwhile by mugging Santos 1-2, bringing full points back to the river (Rio). It's rather telling that Santos did the same to Nautico the other day.
Flamengo have nothing to fear today and it should be a lazy Sunday
afternoon at Maracana.
Interim coach, Andrade has called for a full house at Maracana and when they beat Nautico on Sunday he maybe, just maybe, stay on as permanent coach.
FLAMENGO League Stats :
Games played: 15
League Position: 7th
Wins: 6
Losses: 4
Draws: 5
Away Wins: 2
Home Wins: 4
Red Cards: 2
Yellow Cards: 43
Goals Scored: 23 (from 160 shots/headers on target)
Goals Conceded: 23
Passing Errors: 35.67%
NAUTICO (20th - Away Rec : 1-2-5 10:24)
We are not yet at the turn of the 2009 season and Nautico are already strong candidates to be playing beach football next year (demotion to Serie B).
11 donkeys on the beach sounds about right to me - by the way I'm fully entitled to fire polemics as I'm a regular paying customer at the Aflitos turnstyles.
There was a ray of hope 2 games ago when Nautico crossed the city to play Sport grabbing a 3-3 draw in a thriller, they took the lead twice, relinquished both times!
Santos came-up from Sao Paulo on Wednesday and put things back in perspective by taking the 3 points down south.
Business as usual!
NAUTICO League Stats :
Games played: 15
League Position: 20th
Wins: 2
Losses: 8
Draws: 5
Away Wins: 1
Home Wins: 1
Red Cards: 6
Yellow Cards: 52
Goals Scored: 17 (from 151 shots/headers on target)
Goals Conceded: 33
Passing Errors: 28.80%
THE BETTING VERDICT
The rubro-negro's (scarlet and blacks) should have a relatively easy ride today.It would take a huge leap of faith to believe that Nautico can get anything from this save a bloody nose.
The last 4 meetings between these 2 is 3-1 to Fla, Nautico winning once at home (last game of the season in 2007, Flamengo finished 3rd that year).
Sportsbooks are going around 1.44 for what looks like a formality we could spice it up a bit with some exotic sauce, but I'm essentially a straight-up man myself.
However, I wouldn't castigate you if you were to go home win, half-time, full-time or even first goal 30 to 40 minutes (if you could find a book).
UPDATE :
I wrote this preview prior to Flamengo's Thursday night encounter with Atletico MG and Flamengo convincingly won the game 3-1.
That victory really does consolidate this home victory prediction and as I write the 1.44 odds are standing up, this looks big in the context of Sunday's game.
