Gooners Football Spreadsheet betting analysis

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SPREADSHEET PREDICTIONS - NAVIGATION MENU

INSIDE THE NUMB3RS - THE CURRENT BETTING SHEET PREDICTIONS

TEAMS   ML   RATINGS     RESULT %   DV SHEET   HOME ODDS   DRAW ODDS   AWAY ODDS  
DATE GAME_ID HOME AWAY   PK   M H A   OBS   HW D AW   PK STATS   $ Val Bookie   $ Val Bookie   $ Val Bookie  
2014-04-21  6006039   Malaga   Villarreal      -6   987  994    222    48  23   28    +   More   3.00   144%   BetVictor     3.32   76%   Pinnacle     2.61   73%   Pinnacle    
2014-04-21  1005687   Man_City   WBA    +   200   1167  967    250    79  15       More   1.22   96%   BetVictor     7.58   114%   Pinnacle     16.16   97%   Pinnacle    
2014-04-20  6006038   Barcelona   Atletico_Madrid    +   162   1226  1064      75  0   25      More   1.31   98%   Pinnacle     6.50   0%   Bet365     12.00   300%   Coral    
2014-04-20  6006037   Sevilla   Granada    +   152   1070  919    131    62  24   15      More   1.45   90%   BetVictor     5.00   120%   Interwetten     9.62   144%   Pinnacle    
2014-04-20  6006036   Vallecano   Real_Betis      48   974  925    229    43  31   25      More   2.05   88%   MyBet     3.75   116%   Pinnacle     3.90   98%   Interwetten    
2014-04-20  6006035   Almeria   Celta_Vigo      -12   951  964    221    45  29   27    +   More   2.78   125%   Pinnacle     3.30   96%   Interwetten     2.90   78%   Interwetten    
2014-04-20  3004565   Stuttgart   Schalke      -39   992  1032    411    31  25   44      More   2.80   87%   MyBet     3.62   91%   Pinnacle     2.62   115%   Pinnacle    
2014-04-20  3004564   Nurnberg   Leverkusen      -68   965  1033    271    29  29   42      More   4.12   119%   Pinnacle     3.92   114%   Pinnacle     1.93   81%   BetVictor    
2014-04-20  1005686   Everton   Man_Utd      -48   1070  1118    91    21  29   51      More   2.47   52%   Pinnacle     3.53   102%   Pinnacle     3.13   160%   BetVictor    
2014-04-20  1005685   Hull_City   Arsenal      -24   985  1009    424    38  28   33      More   5.35   203%   Pinnacle     3.75   105%   Bet365     1.80   59%   BetVictor    
2014-04-20  1005684   Norwich   Liverpool    -   -97   1007  1105    189    17  22   61      More   9.00   153%   BetVictor     5.47   120%   Pinnacle     1.40   85%   Ladbrokes    
2014-04-19  6006034   Real_Sociedad   Espanyol      84   1056  971    134    59  19   22      More   1.85   109%   BetVictor     3.80   72%   Interwetten     5.00   110%   Betsson    
2014-04-19  6006033   Levante   Getafe      5   941  936    134    42  28   30      More   2.57   108%   Pinnacle     3.30   92%   Interwetten     3.14   94%   Pinnacle    
2014-04-19  6006032   Osasuna   Valencia      -20   955  975    221    49  27   24    +   More   2.83   139%   Pinnacle     3.31   89%   Pinnacle     2.80   67%   BetVictor    
2014-04-19  3004563   Hamburg   Wolfsburg      -45   975  1020    402    34  25   41      More   3.19   108%   Pinnacle     3.65   91%   Pinnacle     2.50   103%   Interwetten    
2014-04-19  3004562   Bremen   Hoffenheim      -20   952  972    337    37  28   35      More   3.06   113%   Pinnacle     3.80   106%   Pinnacle     2.50   88%   Interwetten    
2014-04-19  3004561   Freiburg   Monchengladbach      10   1008  998    666    43  27   30    =   More   3.25   140%   MyBet     3.55   96%   Pinnacle     2.33   70%   Pinnacle    
2014-04-19  3004560   Dortmund   Mainz    +   103   1090  987    263    60  21   19      More   1.39   83%   Pinnacle     5.54   116%   Pinnacle     8.51   162%   Pinnacle    
2014-04-19  3004559   Braunschweig   Bayern_Munich    -   -188   993  1182    14    14   79      More   7.87   55%   Pinnacle     5.14   72%   Pinnacle     1.50   119%   Interwetten    
2014-04-19  3004558   Augsberg   Hertha_Berlin      -3   1008  1011    596    38  26   37      More   1.93   73%   BetVictor     3.64   95%   Pinnacle     4.45   165%   Pinnacle    
2014-04-19  2005288   Fiorentina   Roma_AS      -59   1020  1079    54    33  20   46      More   3.25   107%   BetVictor     3.43   69%   Pinnacle     2.42   111%   Pinnacle    
2014-04-19  2005287   Juventus   Bologna    +   207   1152  945    29    72  14   14      More   1.18   85%   Pinnacle     7.70   108%   Pinnacle     23.00   322%   Pinnacle    
2014-04-19  2005286   Udinese   Napoli      -63   991  1053    124    19  29   52      More   4.00   76%   Interwetten     3.50   102%   Bet365     2.21   115%   Pinnacle    
2014-04-19  2005285   Parma   Inter_Milan      -20   1035  1055    103    29  28   43      More   2.63   76%   BetVictor     3.46   97%   Pinnacle     2.93   126%   Pinnacle    
2014-04-19  2005284   Lazio   Torino      42   1050  1008    94    47  24   29    +   More   1.93   91%   BetVictor     3.50   84%   Coral     4.85   141%   Pinnacle    
2014-04-19  2005283   Genoa   Cagliari      60   1004  944    326    52  32   16    =   More   2.35   122%   Pinnacle     3.25   104%   Coral     3.80   61%   Interwetten    
2014-04-19  2005282   Chievo   Sassuolo      26   974  949    274    38  33   29    =   More   2.10   80%   BetVictor     3.45   114%   Interwetten     4.12   119%   Pinnacle    
2014-04-19  2005281   Catania   Sampdoria    =   5   970  964    234    41  33   25      More   2.30   94%   Ladbrokes     3.43   113%   Pinnacle     3.70   93%   BetVictor    
2014-04-19  2005280   Atalanta   Verona      53   1005  952    326    50  34   16    =   More   2.10   105%   Coral     3.30   112%   BetVictor     4.56   73%   Pinnacle    
2014-04-19  2005279   Milan_AC   Livorno    +   151   1036  885    77    69  19   12      More   1.33   92%   Ladbrokes     5.96   113%   Pinnacle     13.11   157%   Pinnacle    
2014-04-19  1005683   Chelsea   Sunderland    +   210   1176  966    228    78  17       More   1.21   94%   Pinnacle     7.50   128%   MyBet     18.00   108%   BetVictor    
2014-04-19  1005682   West_Ham   Crystal_Palace      22   1010  988    685    47  26   27      More   2.38   112%   BetVictor     3.37   88%   Pinnacle     3.60   97%   Coral    
2014-04-19  1005681   Newcastle   Swansea      -27   944  972    298    40  29   32      More   2.80   112%   BetVictor     3.42   99%   Pinnacle     2.80   90%   Ladbrokes    
2014-04-19  1005680   Cardiff   Stoke_City      -37   913  950    107    35  35   31      More   2.53   89%   Pinnacle     3.31   116%   Pinnacle     3.10   96%   Pinnacle    
2014-04-19  1005679   Aston_Villa   Southampton      -48   946  994    248    38  30   32      More   3.60   137%   BetVictor     3.43   103%   Pinnacle     2.30   74%   Interwetten    
2014-04-19  1005678   Tottenham   Fulham    +   126   1044  918    276    63  24   14      More   1.55   98%   Interwetten     4.56   109%   Pinnacle     7.00   98%   Ladbrokes    

 

A BASIC KEY FOR THE SPREADSHEET : (in response to a few queries on Twitter and Facebook)

RATINGS : These are the ratings for the two teams adjusted for the venue. H = Home Team, A = Away Team, M = Margin between the two sides.
NOTES : A one goal margin win (on average) is 100 points - but given randomness, poisson distribution and standard devation - even 50-75 points is a strong indicator.

PICKS : There are two pick types ...
ML PK = Most likely pick (the most likely result). + is a home win, = is a draw, - is an away win. These are usually obvious to most punters.
DV PK = Discovered Value Pick. + is a home win, = is a draw, - is an away win. These consider the potential risk/reward of odds and potential profits.

OTHER STUFF : Some other notes about the sheet.
OBS : The number of Observations (or previous games) that have helped to shape the result %. The more obs, the better accuracy. 100+ obs is good data.
RESULT % : HW = Home Win, D = Draw. AW = Away Win. These are percentage estimates based on results from previous games with similar ratings.
VAL : This is the potential value of the decimal odds, when considering the expected result %. Eg. 2.00 * 50% = 100% value which is fair value

NOTES : Obvious winners and big favourites are very rarely "good value".
The bookies know they're likely to win too and usually offer a poor price and taking these bets usually means a losing season overall. Always look for value. (100% or better)

If there is anything else you need to know - drop me a line on the GoonersGuide Facebook Page.

 

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Gooners Football Betting Spreadsheet