Gooners Football Spreadsheet betting analysis

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SPREADSHEET PREDICTIONS - NAVIGATION MENU

INSIDE THE NUMB3RS - THE CURRENT BETTING SHEET PREDICTIONS

TEAMS   ML   RATINGS     RESULT %   DV SHEET   HOME ODDS   DRAW ODDS   AWAY ODDS  
DATE GAME_ID HOME AWAY   PK   M H A   OBS   HW D AW   PK STATS   $ Val Bookie   $ Val Bookie   $ Val Bookie  
2014-11-24  6006200   Granada   Almeria      -16   909  925    25    36  36   28      More   2.05   74%   Ladbrokes     3.40   122%   BetVictor     4.21   118%   Pinnacle    
2014-11-24  1005840   Aston_Villa   Southampton    -   -79   949  1027    191    28  28   45      More   5.25   147%   BetVictor     3.60   101%   BetVictor     1.85   83%   Interwetten    
2014-11-23  6006199   Villarreal   Getafe      48   1008  960    333    48  24   28      More   1.50   72%   Interwetten     4.80   115%   Pinnacle     8.50   238%   BetVictor    
2014-11-23  6006198   Elche   Cordoba      25   945  920    111    50  25   24      More   2.00   100%   Coral     3.45   86%   Interwetten     4.58   110%   Pinnacle    
2014-11-23  6006197   Levante   Valencia      -84   921  1005    33    30  27   42      More   6.02   181%   Pinnacle     3.90   105%   BetVictor     1.70   71%   Ladbrokes    
2014-11-23  6006196   Vallecano   Celta_Vigo      -80   953  1034    75    27  31   43      More   2.80   76%   Coral     3.57   111%   Pinnacle     2.70   116%   Ladbrokes    
2014-11-23  3004700   Stuttgart   Augsberg      -27   965  992    442    37  26   38      More   2.54   94%   Pinnacle     3.50   91%   Pinnacle     2.94   112%   Pinnacle    
2014-11-23  3004699   Hamburg   Bremen      19   971  952    508    46  24   30      More   2.10   97%   Interwetten     3.75   90%   Pinnacle     4.17   125%   Pinnacle    
2014-11-23  2005448   Genoa   Palermo      26   1006  980    248    48  29   22    +   More   2.25   108%   BetVictor     3.31   96%   Pinnacle     3.70   81%   BetVictor    
2014-11-23  2005447   Milan_AC   Inter_Milan      46   1042  996    140    54  29   18    +   More   2.71   146%   Pinnacle     3.30   96%   Betway     2.90   52%   MyBet    
2014-11-23  2005446   Verona   Fiorentina      -57   990  1047    127    16  35   49      More   3.77   60%   Pinnacle     3.51   123%   Pinnacle     2.13   104%   Pinnacle    
2014-11-23  2005445   Udinese   Chievo      71   1012  941    306    52  28   20      More   1.91   99%   Coral     3.51   98%   Pinnacle     5.06   101%   Pinnacle    
2014-11-23  2005444   Parma   Empoli      77   999  922    183    54  23   22      More   2.16   117%   Pinnacle     3.49   80%   Pinnacle     3.75   83%   Ladbrokes    
2014-11-23  2005443   Napoli   Cagliari    +   163   1125  962    84    77  15       More   1.41   109%   Betsson     5.20   78%   Pinnacle     9.00   63%   BetVictor    
2014-11-23  2005442   Cesena   Sampdoria      -7   952  959    189    43  33   24      More   4.71   203%   Pinnacle     3.50   116%   Bet365     2.00   48%   Interwetten    
2014-11-23  2005441   Torino   Sassuolo      47   1017  970    283    52  30   18      More   1.85   96%   Pinnacle     3.60   108%   MyBet     5.03   91%   Pinnacle    
2014-11-23  1005839   Hull_City   Tottenham      -52   968  1020    270    33  29   39      More   3.50   116%   BetVictor     3.40   99%   Bet365     2.25   88%   Coral    
2014-11-23  1005838   Crystal_Palace   Liverpool    -   -81   968  1050    226    21  23   57      More   4.75   100%   MyBet     3.70   85%   BetVictor     1.83   104%   Paddy    
2014-11-22  6006195   La_Coruna   Real_Sociedad      9   959  950    259    41  27   32      More   3.49   143%   Pinnacle     3.32   90%   Pinnacle     2.40   77%   Interwetten    
2014-11-22  6006194   Barcelona   Sevilla    +   202   1187  985    82    83  12       More   1.25   104%   Ladbrokes     7.40   89%   Pinnacle     13.75   69%   Pinnacle    
2014-11-22  6006193   Eibar   Real_Madrid    -   -187   949  1136    35    11  26   63      More   19.00   209%   BetVictor     7.35   191%   Pinnacle     1.22   77%   Pinnacle    
2014-11-22  6006192   Atletico_Madrid   Malaga    +   153   1115  962    156    74  14   12      More   1.45   107%   Interwetten     4.50   63%   MyBet     9.50   114%   Pinnacle    
2014-11-22  3004698   Cologne   Hertha_Berlin      28   983  956    642    45  26   29      More   2.17   98%   Pinnacle     3.40   88%   MyBet     3.80   110%   Pinnacle    
2014-11-22  3004697   Schalke   Wolfsburg      73   1122  1049    44    59  23   18      More   3.09   182%   Pinnacle     3.60   83%   BetVictor     2.60   47%   Interwetten    
2014-11-22  3004696   Paderborn   Dortmund      -93   985  1078    120    32  21   48      More   7.60   243%   Pinnacle     5.00   105%   Pinnacle     1.50   72%   Interwetten    
2014-11-22  3004695   Mainz   Freiburg      77   1037  960    600    54  28   18      More   2.19   118%   Pinnacle     3.60   101%   MyBet     3.75   68%   MyBet    
2014-11-22  3004694   Hannover   Leverkusen    =   -5   1022  1027    477    34  27   39      More   4.09   139%   Pinnacle     3.75   101%   BetVictor     2.20   86%   Interwetten    
2014-11-22  3004693   Monchengladbach   Eintracht_F    +   114   1082  968    364    64  20   16      More   1.55   99%   Interwetten     5.01   100%   Pinnacle     7.57   121%   Pinnacle    
2014-11-22  3004692   Bayern_Munich   Hoffenheim    +   242   1214  972    30    90  7       More   1.16   104%   Pinnacle     9.65   68%   Pinnacle     20.00   60%   BetVictor    
2014-11-22  2005440   Lazio   Juventus      -47   1055  1102    13    38  23   38      More   4.21   160%   Pinnacle     3.54   81%   Pinnacle     2.00   76%   Bet365    
2014-11-22  2005439   Atalanta   Roma_AS      -41   993  1034    140    31  30   39      More   5.05   157%   Pinnacle     3.56   107%   Pinnacle     1.85   72%   Interwetten    
2014-11-22  1005837   Arsenal   Man_Utd      69   1104  1035    142    58  28   14      More   2.40   139%   Interwetten     3.55   99%   Betsson     3.40   48%   BetVictor    
2014-11-22  1005836   Stoke_City   Burnley    +   137   1015  879    148    60  24   16      More   1.70   102%   Ladbrokes     3.75   90%   BetVictor     5.75   92%   BetVictor    
2014-11-22  1005835   Newcastle   QPR      77   989  912    382    52  27   21      More   1.75   91%   Ladbrokes     3.75   101%   BetVictor     5.00   105%   BetVictor    
2014-11-22  1005834   Man_City   Swansea    +   168   1164  996    260    77  17       More   1.40   108%   Paddy     5.05   86%   Coral     9.00   54%   Betsson    
2014-11-22  1005833   Leicester   Sunderland    =   -9   971  981    532    43  27   30      More   2.25   97%   Interwetten     3.40   92%   BetVictor     3.60   108%   BetVictor    
2014-11-22  1005832   Everton   West_Ham      59   1047  988    450    48  28   24      More   1.80   86%   BetVictor     3.80   106%   BetVictor     5.00   120%   Coral    
2014-11-22  1005831   Chelsea   WBA    +   164   1146  982    306    75  16       More   1.23   92%   Betsson     6.50   104%   Bet365     17.00   136%   BetVictor    

 

A BASIC KEY FOR THE SPREADSHEET : (in response to a few queries on Twitter and Facebook)

RATINGS : These are the ratings for the two teams adjusted for the venue. H = Home Team, A = Away Team, M = Margin between the two sides.
NOTES : A one goal margin win (on average) is 100 points - but given randomness, poisson distribution and standard devation - even 50-75 points is a strong indicator.

PICKS : There are two pick types ...
ML PK = Most likely pick (the most likely result). + is a home win, = is a draw, - is an away win. These are usually obvious to most punters.
DV PK = Discovered Value Pick. + is a home win, = is a draw, - is an away win. These consider the potential risk/reward of odds and potential profits.

OTHER STUFF : Some other notes about the sheet.
OBS : The number of Observations (or previous games) that have helped to shape the result %. The more obs, the better accuracy. 100+ obs is good data.
RESULT % : HW = Home Win, D = Draw. AW = Away Win. These are percentage estimates based on results from previous games with similar ratings.
VAL : This is the potential value of the decimal odds, when considering the expected result %. Eg. 2.00 * 50% = 100% value which is fair value

NOTES : Obvious winners and big favourites are very rarely "good value".
The bookies know they're likely to win too and usually offer a poor price and taking these bets usually means a losing season overall. Always look for value. (100% or better)

If there is anything else you need to know - drop me a line on the GoonersGuide Facebook Page.

 

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