Gooners Football Spreadsheet betting analysis

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SPREADSHEET PREDICTIONS - NAVIGATION MENU

INSIDE THE NUMB3RS - THE CURRENT BETTING SHEET PREDICTIONS

TEAMS   ML   RATINGS     RESULT %   DV SHEET   HOME ODDS   DRAW ODDS   AWAY ODDS  
DATE GAME_ID HOME AWAY   PK   M H A   OBS   HW D AW   PK STATS   $ Val Bookie   $ Val Bookie   $ Val Bookie  
2014-09-17  4002255   Porto   BATE_Borisov      89   963  874    107    61  21   19      More   1.29   79%   Ladbrokes     6.00   126%   BetVictor     15.01   285%   Pinnacle    
2014-09-17  4002254   Bilbao   Shaktar_Donetsk      29   955  926    139    44  24   32      More   2.05   90%   Pinnacle     3.50   84%   Bet365     4.20   134%   Ladbrokes    
2014-09-17  4002253   NK_Maribor   Sporting_Lisbon    -   -162   756  918      33  33   33      More   4.75   157%   Bet365     3.47   115%   Pinnacle     2.00   66%   Ladbrokes    
2014-09-17  4002252   Chelsea   Schalke      89   1039  949    69    68  13   19    +   More   1.38   94%   Betsson     5.54   72%   Pinnacle     10.42   198%   Pinnacle    
2014-09-17  4002251   Barcelona   APOEL_Nicosia    +   227   1088  861    27    78  15       More   1.07   83%   Pinnacle     18.00   270%   Pinnacle     41.00   287%   BetVictor    
2014-09-17  4002250   Ajax   Paris_SG      -59   939  998    78    27  38   35    =   More   5.25   142%   Pinnacle     3.94   150%   Pinnacle     1.90   67%   Interwetten    
2014-09-17  4002249   Bayern_Munchen   Man_City      90   1073  983    24    54  17   29      More   1.66   90%   BetOnline     4.50   77%   Bet365     5.55   161%   Betsson    
2014-09-17  4002248   Roma_AS   CSKA_Moscow      59   946  887    125    60  18   22      More   1.60   96%   Interwetten     4.10   74%   Pinnacle     6.80   150%   Pinnacle    

 

A BASIC KEY FOR THE SPREADSHEET : (in response to a few queries on Twitter and Facebook)

RATINGS : These are the ratings for the two teams adjusted for the venue. H = Home Team, A = Away Team, M = Margin between the two sides.
NOTES : A one goal margin win (on average) is 100 points - but given randomness, poisson distribution and standard devation - even 50-75 points is a strong indicator.

PICKS : There are two pick types ...
ML PK = Most likely pick (the most likely result). + is a home win, = is a draw, - is an away win. These are usually obvious to most punters.
DV PK = Discovered Value Pick. + is a home win, = is a draw, - is an away win. These consider the potential risk/reward of odds and potential profits.

OTHER STUFF : Some other notes about the sheet.
OBS : The number of Observations (or previous games) that have helped to shape the result %. The more obs, the better accuracy. 100+ obs is good data.
RESULT % : HW = Home Win, D = Draw. AW = Away Win. These are percentage estimates based on results from previous games with similar ratings.
VAL : This is the potential value of the decimal odds, when considering the expected result %. Eg. 2.00 * 50% = 100% value which is fair value

NOTES : Obvious winners and big favourites are very rarely "good value".
The bookies know they're likely to win too and usually offer a poor price and taking these bets usually means a losing season overall. Always look for value. (100% or better)

If there is anything else you need to know - drop me a line on the GoonersGuide Facebook Page.

 

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RECOMMENDED BOOKMAKER SITES : Direct Bet links :
Bet365 | BetFred | BetVictor | BoyleSports | Coral | Centrebet | ColossusPools | Interwetten | Ladbrokes | MyBet | Paddy Power | PinnacleSports |

OFFSHORE SPORTSBOOKS (US PLAYERS) :
BetOnline | Bookmaker.com | Bovada |



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Gooners Football Betting Spreadsheet