Gooners Football Spreadsheet betting analysis

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SPREADSHEET PREDICTIONS - NAVIGATION MENU

INSIDE THE NUMB3RS - THE CURRENT BETTING SHEET PREDICTIONS

TEAMS   ML   RATINGS     RESULT %   DV SHEET   HOME ODDS   DRAW ODDS   AWAY ODDS  
DATE GAME_ID HOME AWAY   PK   M H A   OBS   HW D AW   PK STATS   $ Val Bookie   $ Val Bookie   $ Val Bookie  
2014-10-27  1005810   QPR   Aston_Villa      19   957  938    388    43  30   27      More   2.50   108%   Ladbrokes     3.30   99%   Interwetten     3.42   92%   Pinnacle    
2014-10-26  6006170   Getafe   Atletico_Madrid    -   -104   949  1053    59    25  20   54      More   8.10   203%   Pinnacle     4.00   80%   Bet365     1.62   87%   Ladbrokes    
2014-10-26  6006169   Sevilla   Villarreal      73   1091  1018    30    57  23   20      More   2.15   123%   BetOnline     3.56   82%   Pinnacle     3.75   75%   Bet365    
2014-10-26  6006168   Espanyol   La_Coruna      64   980  916    186    41  33   26      More   1.93   79%   Pinnacle     3.51   116%   Pinnacle     4.70   122%   Paddy    
2014-10-26  6006167   Malaga   Vallecano      52   1014  961    323    46  26   28      More   1.95   90%   BetVictor     3.58   93%   Pinnacle     4.50   126%   Betway    
2014-10-26  3004673   Monchengladbach   Bayern_Munich    -   -108   1061  1170    10    20   80      More   8.72   0%   Pinnacle     4.95   99%   Pinnacle     1.50   120%   Interwetten    
2014-10-26  3004672   Wolfsburg   Mainz      75   1063  988    419    55  22   23      More   1.75   96%   Interwetten     4.16   92%   Pinnacle     5.50   127%   Pinnacle    
2014-10-26  2005408   Milan_AC   Fiorentina    =   13   1076  1063    46    30  39   30      More   2.10   63%   BetVictor     3.46   135%   Pinnacle     4.04   121%   Pinnacle    
2014-10-26  2005407   Napoli   Verona    +   120   1094  974    144    67  23   10      More   1.50   101%   Ladbrokes     4.87   112%   Pinnacle     9.00   90%   BetVictor    
2014-10-26  2005406   Lazio   Torino      32   1036  1004    116    46  31   23    +   More   1.83   84%   PaddyPower     3.73   116%   Pinnacle     5.60   129%   Pinnacle    
2014-10-26  2005405   Cesena   Inter_Milan      -50   957  1007    107    37  21   42      More   7.50   278%   BetVictor     3.92   82%   Pinnacle     1.75   74%   Interwetten    
2014-10-26  2005404   Udinese   Atalanta      65   1026  962    282    51  30   19      More   1.93   98%   BetVictor     3.50   105%   Interwetten     4.75   90%   BetVictor    
2014-10-26  2005403   Juventus   Palermo    +   203   1150  947    37    73  11   16      More   1.22   89%   Bet365     6.92   76%   Pinnacle     18.85   302%   Pinnacle    
2014-10-26  2005402   Chievo   Genoa      -2   968  971    232    46  27   28      More   2.55   117%   BetVictor     3.25   88%   Coral     3.34   94%   Pinnacle    
2014-10-26  1005809   Man_Utd   Chelsea      -47   1065  1112    107    21  28   50      More   3.00   63%   BetVictor     3.54   99%   Pinnacle     2.60   130%   Interwetten    
2014-10-26  1005808   Tottenham   Newcastle    +   107   1052  944    396    64  24   12    =   More   1.80   115%   BetVictor     3.97   95%   Pinnacle     5.00   60%   Ladbrokes    
2014-10-26  1005807   Burnley   Everton    -   -108   926  1035    101    23  28   50      More   4.95   114%   Betsson     3.87   108%   Pinnacle     1.86   93%   Pinnacle    
2014-10-25  6006166   Eibar   Granada      14   950  936    204    43  31   26      More   2.20   95%   Ladbrokes     3.30   102%   Interwetten     4.07   106%   Pinnacle    
2014-10-25  6006165   Cordoba   Real_Sociedad      -29   924  953    80    44  24   33      More   3.60   158%   Pinnacle     3.40   82%   BetVictor     2.30   76%   Interwetten    
2014-10-25  6006164   Valencia   Elche    +   154   1078  924    132    66  17   17      More   1.40   92%   BetVictor     5.00   85%   Interwetten     9.84   167%   Pinnacle    
2014-10-25  6006163   Real_Madrid   Barcelona    +   96   1205  1108      50   50      More   2.40   0%   MyBet     3.80   190%   BetVictor     3.10   155%   Interwetten    
2014-10-25  6006162   Almeria   Bilbao      -26   951  977    222    43  25   32      More   3.52   151%   Pinnacle     3.52   88%   Pinnacle     2.40   77%   Interwetten    
2014-10-25  3004671   Leverkusen   Schalke      35   1048  1013    430    48  25   27      More   1.90   91%   Interwetten     4.21   105%   Pinnacle     4.65   126%   Betsson    
2014-10-25  3004670   Hoffenheim   Paderborn      93   1054  961    502    59  26   15      More   1.67   99%   BetVictor     4.33   113%   Bet365     5.60   84%   MyBet    
2014-10-25  3004669   Hertha_Berlin   Hamburg      20   966  946    449    46  24   30      More   2.31   106%   Pinnacle     3.50   84%   Ladbrokes     3.40   102%   Pinnacle    
2014-10-25  3004668   Eintracht_F   Stuttgart      3   985  982    677    41  29   30    -   More   2.40   98%   MyBet     3.64   106%   Pinnacle     3.13   94%   Pinnacle    
2014-10-25  3004667   Dortmund   Hannover    +   139   1057  918    249    63  23   13      More   1.33   84%   Interwetten     6.63   152%   Pinnacle     13.60   177%   Pinnacle    
2014-10-25  3004666   Augsberg   Freiburg      84   1040  955    584    56  26   17      More   1.93   108%   BetVictor     3.65   95%   Pinnacle     4.45   76%   Betsson    
2014-10-25  2005401   Sampdoria   Roma_AS      -35   1015  1049    115    20  35   45      More   4.30   86%   BetVictor     3.50   123%   Bet365     2.05   92%   BetVictor    
2014-10-25  2005400   Parma   Sassuolo      46   1000  954    351    46  34   20    =   More   1.80   83%   Ladbrokes     3.82   130%   Pinnacle     5.39   108%   Pinnacle    
2014-10-25  2005399   Empoli   Cagliari      35   987  951    310    42  35   23    =   More   2.10   88%   Ladbrokes     3.46   121%   Pinnacle     3.99   92%   Pinnacle    
2014-10-25  1005806   Swansea   Leicester      48   1005  957    702    45  29   26      More   1.97   89%   Pinnacle     3.66   106%   Pinnacle     4.33   113%   Coral    
2014-10-25  1005805   WBA   Crystal_Palace      6   992  986    642    45  26   29    +   More   1.95   88%   Ladbrokes     3.66   95%   Pinnacle     4.50   131%   BetVictor    
2014-10-25  1005804   Sunderland   Arsenal      -47   999  1046    272    29  28   43      More   5.50   160%   Bet365     4.07   114%   Pinnacle     1.74   75%   Pinnacle    
2014-10-25  1005803   Southampton   Stoke_City    +   90   1060  970    393    54  27   19      More   1.62   87%   BetVictor     4.20   113%   Pinnacle     6.49   123%   Pinnacle    
2014-10-25  1005802   Liverpool   Hull_City    +   134   1082  948    316    74  17       More   1.47   109%   Pinnacle     4.80   82%   Pinnacle     8.00   72%   BetVictor    
2014-10-25  1005801   West_Ham   Man_City    -   -101   1027  1128    132    21  23   55      More   6.50   137%   BetVictor     4.59   106%   Pinnacle     1.59   87%   Betsson    
2014-10-24  6006161   Celta_Vigo   Levante      19   991  972    349    47  27   26      More   1.50   71%   Interwetten     4.56   123%   Pinnacle     8.25   215%   Betsson    
2014-10-24  3004665   Bremen   Cologne      54   964  910    240    53  21   26      More   2.72   144%   Pinnacle     3.44   72%   Pinnacle     2.76   72%   Pinnacle    

 

A BASIC KEY FOR THE SPREADSHEET : (in response to a few queries on Twitter and Facebook)

RATINGS : These are the ratings for the two teams adjusted for the venue. H = Home Team, A = Away Team, M = Margin between the two sides.
NOTES : A one goal margin win (on average) is 100 points - but given randomness, poisson distribution and standard devation - even 50-75 points is a strong indicator.

PICKS : There are two pick types ...
ML PK = Most likely pick (the most likely result). + is a home win, = is a draw, - is an away win. These are usually obvious to most punters.
DV PK = Discovered Value Pick. + is a home win, = is a draw, - is an away win. These consider the potential risk/reward of odds and potential profits.

OTHER STUFF : Some other notes about the sheet.
OBS : The number of Observations (or previous games) that have helped to shape the result %. The more obs, the better accuracy. 100+ obs is good data.
RESULT % : HW = Home Win, D = Draw. AW = Away Win. These are percentage estimates based on results from previous games with similar ratings.
VAL : This is the potential value of the decimal odds, when considering the expected result %. Eg. 2.00 * 50% = 100% value which is fair value

NOTES : Obvious winners and big favourites are very rarely "good value".
The bookies know they're likely to win too and usually offer a poor price and taking these bets usually means a losing season overall. Always look for value. (100% or better)

If there is anything else you need to know - drop me a line on the GoonersGuide Facebook Page.

 

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