Gooners Football Spreadsheet betting analysis

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SPREADSHEET PREDICTIONS - NAVIGATION MENU

INSIDE THE NUMB3RS - THE CURRENT BETTING SHEET PREDICTIONS

TEAMS   ML   RATINGS     RESULT %   DV SHEET   HOME ODDS   DRAW ODDS   AWAY ODDS  
DATE GAME_ID HOME AWAY   PK   M H A   OBS   HW D AW   PK STATS   $ Val Bookie   $ Val Bookie   $ Val Bookie  
2014-08-25  6006090   Vallecano   Atletico_Madrid    -   -97   957  1054    64    22  22   56      More   7.05   155%   Pinnacle     4.41   97%   Pinnacle     1.53   86%   BetVictor    
2014-08-25  6006089   Real_Madrid   Cordoba    +   285   1205  920    88    91  5       More   1.09   99%   Pinnacle     14.13   71%   Pinnacle     31.00   155%   BetVictor    
2014-08-25  1005740   Man_City   Liverpool    +   86   1179  1093    40    60  20   20      More   1.95   117%   Paddy     3.60   72%   Bet365     4.50   90%   BetVictor    
2014-08-24  6006088   Levante   Villarreal      -20   985  1004    190    37  27   36      More   3.41   126%   Pinnacle     3.34   90%   Pinnacle     2.35   85%   MyBet    
2014-08-24  6006087   Celta_Vigo   Getafe      29   995  966    348    48  31   22      More   2.01   96%   Pinnacle     3.60   112%   Paddy     4.18   92%   Pinnacle    
2014-08-24  6006086   Barcelona   Elche    +   258   1184  926    106    86  7       More   1.13   97%   MyBet     10.59   74%   Pinnacle     23.73   190%   Pinnacle    
2014-08-24  6006085   Eibar   Real_Sociedad      -33   940  973    148    41  29   30      More   3.42   140%   Pinnacle     3.40   99%   MyBet     2.32   70%   Pinnacle    
2014-08-24  3004601   Monchengladbach   Stuttgart    +   96   1070  975    409    62  22   16      More   2.05   127%   Bet365     3.67   81%   Pinnacle     3.94   63%   Pinnacle    
2014-08-24  3004600   Paderborn   Mainz      -17   950  967    318    39  26   35      More   3.11   121%   Pinnacle     3.60   94%   PaddyPower     2.50   88%   Coral    
2014-08-24  1005739   Sunderland   Man_Utd    -   -129   962  1090    154    17  23   60      More   5.25   89%   BetVictor     3.75   86%   BetVictor     1.80   108%   Paddy    
2014-08-24  1005738   Tottenham   QPR    +   121   1067  946    337    67  23   10    =   More   1.44   96%   BetVictor     4.33   100%   Bet365     9.00   90%   BetVictor    
2014-08-24  1005737   Hull_City   Stoke_City    =   -8   951  959    368    44  28   28      More   2.45   108%   BetVictor     3.25   91%   MyBet     3.25   91%   BetVictor    
2014-08-23  6006084   Almeria   Espanyol      -12   954  966    234    44  29   26    +   More   2.56   113%   Pinnacle     3.30   96%   Bet365     3.07   80%   Pinnacle    
2014-08-23  6006083   Sevilla   Valencia    +   109   1083  974    109    69  21   10      More   2.20   152%   Paddy     3.57   75%   Pinnacle     3.63   36%   Pinnacle    
2014-08-23  6006082   Granada   La_Coruna      -2   928  930    83    39  35   27      More   2.15   84%   Pinnacle     3.35   117%   MyBet     4.04   109%   Pinnacle    
2014-08-23  6006081   Malaga   Bilbao      -34   993  1028    153    35  30   35      More   3.03   106%   Pinnacle     3.39   102%   Pinnacle     2.53   89%   Pinnacle    
2014-08-23  3004599   Dortmund   Leverkusen      35   1096  1060    84    43  35   23      More   1.62   70%   Coral     4.33   152%   Bet365     6.30   145%   MyBet    
2014-08-23  3004598   Cologne   Hamburg      60   985  925    342    54  22   24      More   2.27   123%   Pinnacle     3.54   78%   Pinnacle     3.34   80%   Pinnacle    
2014-08-23  3004597   Hoffenheim   Augsberg      42   1046  1003    500    51  24   25      More   2.10   107%   Bet365     3.75   90%   Pinnacle     3.70   93%   MyBet    
2014-08-23  3004596   Hertha_Berlin   Bremen    =   3   949  946    281    41  28   30      More   2.20   90%   Interwetten     3.59   101%   Pinnacle     3.60   108%   Coral    
2014-08-23  3004595   Hannover   Schalke      -20   1012  1032    439    33  25   42      More   3.27   108%   Pinnacle     3.56   89%   Pinnacle     2.40   101%   MyBet    
2014-08-23  3004594   Eintracht_F   Freiburg      27   985  958    659    44  26   29      More   2.11   93%   Pinnacle     3.58   93%   Pinnacle     3.75   109%   MyBet    
2014-08-23  1005736   Everton   Arsenal      35   1080  1045    116    41  32   27      More   2.90   119%   BetVictor     3.40   109%   Bet365     2.60   70%   MyBet    
2014-08-23  1005735   Swansea   Burnley    +   119   1007  888    213    59  27   15      More   1.75   103%   BetVictor     3.60   97%   Bet365     5.25   79%   BetVictor    
2014-08-23  1005734   Southampton   WBA      71   1028  957    569    50  28   22      More   1.85   93%   BetVictor     3.60   101%   Bet365     4.50   99%   BetVictor    
2014-08-23  1005733   Crystal_Palace   West_Ham      38   993  955    673    45  29   26      More   2.55   115%   BetVictor     3.40   99%   Bet365     3.10   81%   BetVictor    
2014-08-23  1005732   Chelsea   Leicester    +   145   1121  976    340    73  19       More   1.22   89%   BetVictor     7.00   133%   Bet365     15.00   120%   BetVictor    
2014-08-23  1005731   Aston_Villa   Newcastle      8   968  960    547    44  29   27    +   More   2.60   114%   BetVictor     3.40   99%   Bet365     2.88   78%   BetVictor    
2014-08-22  3004593   Bayern_Munich   Wolfsburg    +   140   1180  1040    14    57  21   21      More   1.25   71%   Interwetten     7.30   153%   Pinnacle     13.60   286%   Pinnacle    

 

A BASIC KEY FOR THE SPREADSHEET : (in response to a few queries on Twitter and Facebook)

RATINGS : These are the ratings for the two teams adjusted for the venue. H = Home Team, A = Away Team, M = Margin between the two sides.
NOTES : A one goal margin win (on average) is 100 points - but given randomness, poisson distribution and standard devation - even 50-75 points is a strong indicator.

PICKS : There are two pick types ...
ML PK = Most likely pick (the most likely result). + is a home win, = is a draw, - is an away win. These are usually obvious to most punters.
DV PK = Discovered Value Pick. + is a home win, = is a draw, - is an away win. These consider the potential risk/reward of odds and potential profits.

OTHER STUFF : Some other notes about the sheet.
OBS : The number of Observations (or previous games) that have helped to shape the result %. The more obs, the better accuracy. 100+ obs is good data.
RESULT % : HW = Home Win, D = Draw. AW = Away Win. These are percentage estimates based on results from previous games with similar ratings.
VAL : This is the potential value of the decimal odds, when considering the expected result %. Eg. 2.00 * 50% = 100% value which is fair value

NOTES : Obvious winners and big favourites are very rarely "good value".
The bookies know they're likely to win too and usually offer a poor price and taking these bets usually means a losing season overall. Always look for value. (100% or better)

If there is anything else you need to know - drop me a line on the GoonersGuide Facebook Page.

 

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