Gooners Football Spreadsheet betting analysis

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SPREADSHEET PREDICTIONS - NAVIGATION MENU

INSIDE THE NUMB3RS - THE CURRENT BETTING SHEET PREDICTIONS

TEAMS   ML   RATINGS     RESULT %   DV SHEET   HOME ODDS   DRAW ODDS   AWAY ODDS  
DATE GAME_ID HOME AWAY   PK   M H A   OBS   HW D AW   PK STATS   $ Val Bookie   $ Val Bookie   $ Val Bookie  
2014-10-05  6006150   Real_Madrid   Bilbao    +   187   1184  997    44    80  16       More   1.22   98%   BetVictor     8.15   130%   Pinnacle     15.50   78%   Pinnacle    
2014-10-05  6006149   Espanyol   Real_Sociedad      -3   965  968    286    45  26   29    +   More   2.66   120%   Pinnacle     3.35   87%   Pinnacle     3.05   88%   MyBet    
2014-10-05  6006148   Celta_Vigo   Villarreal      3   1006  1003    194    43  24   33    -   More   2.54   109%   Pinnacle     3.39   81%   Pinnacle     3.03   100%   Pinnacle    
2014-10-05  6006147   Sevilla   La_Coruna    +   150   1079  928    143    64  21   15      More   1.44   92%   Ladbrokes     4.97   104%   Pinnacle     9.40   141%   Pinnacle    
2014-10-05  3004655   Monchengladbach   Mainz      91   1070  979    408    56  25   18      More   1.91   107%   BetVictor     3.78   95%   Pinnacle     4.50   81%   Pinnacle    
2014-10-05  3004654   Wolfsburg   Augsberg      64   1060  996    434    53  24   23      More   1.76   93%   Pinnacle     3.98   96%   Pinnacle     5.00   115%   Coral    
2014-10-05  2005388   Napoli   Torino    +   87   1093  1006    59    61  20   19      More   1.57   96%   BetVictor     4.33   87%   Coral     7.61   145%   Pinnacle    
2014-10-05  2005387   Fiorentina   Inter_Milan      -37   992  1029    130    35  25   40      More   2.50   88%   BetVictor     3.38   85%   Pinnacle     3.20   128%   BetVictor    
2014-10-05  2005386   Juventus   Roma_AS    +   101   1150  1049      100  0       More   1.95   195%   Coral     3.55   0%   Pinnacle     4.75   0%   BetVictor    
2014-10-05  2005385   Udinese   Cesena    +   157   1039  882    62    74  21       More   1.55   115%   Ladbrokes     4.20   88%   Bet365     8.50   43%   Pinnacle    
2014-10-05  2005384   Sampdoria   Atalanta      41   1009  968    284    52  28   20      More   1.93   100%   BetVictor     3.47   97%   Pinnacle     4.67   93%   Pinnacle    
2014-10-05  2005383   Parma   Genoa      62   1016  955    311    50  33   17      More   1.96   98%   Pinnacle     3.50   116%   BetVictor     4.54   77%   Pinnacle    
2014-10-05  2005382   Lazio   Sassuolo      78   1034  956    259    56  27   17      More   1.51   85%   Pinnacle     4.50   122%   Bet365     8.27   141%   Pinnacle    
2014-10-05  2005381   Empoli   Palermo      -1   967  967    209    46  28   25      More   2.45   113%   BetVictor     3.30   92%   Betway     3.43   86%   Pinnacle    
2014-10-05  1005790   West_Ham   QPR    +   109   1017  908    318    58  26   15    =   More   1.94   113%   Pinnacle     3.60   94%   Bet365     4.40   66%   Pinnacle    
2014-10-05  1005789   Tottenham   Southampton      10   1042  1032    265    38  26   37      More   2.21   84%   Pinnacle     3.53   92%   Pinnacle     3.60   133%   BetVictor    
2014-10-05  1005788   Chelsea   Arsenal    +   92   1149  1057    107    63  21   16      More   1.70   107%   BetVictor     4.10   86%   Pinnacle     5.75   92%   BetVictor    
2014-10-05  1005787   Man_Utd   Everton      10   1055  1044    176    33  28   39      More   1.73   57%   Paddy     4.10   115%   Pinnacle     5.50   215%   Coral    
2014-10-04  6006146   Malaga   Granada      72   1011  939    298    47  32   22    =   More   1.85   87%   BetVictor     3.57   114%   Pinnacle     5.20   114%   Pinnacle    
2014-10-04  6006145   Almeria   Elche      33   954  921    149    50  29   21      More   2.21   111%   Pinnacle     3.40   99%   Coral     3.80   80%   Bet365    
2014-10-04  6006144   Eibar   Levante      -28   947  975    193    41  26   32      More   1.85   76%   Interwetten     3.50   91%   Coral     5.75   184%   BetVictor    
2014-10-04  6006143   Vallecano   Barcelona    -   -131   971  1102    41    17  27   56      More   12.00   204%   Coral     6.50   176%   Bet365     1.30   73%   Interwetten    
2014-10-04  6006142   Valencia   Atletico_Madrid      -5   1063  1068    13    31  23   46      More   2.88   89%   Coral     3.40   78%   Paddy     2.77   127%   Pinnacle    
2014-10-04  3004653   Eintracht_F   Cologne      69   982  913    315    55  22   23      More   2.45   135%   Pinnacle     3.40   75%   BetVictor     3.25   75%   Coral    
2014-10-04  3004652   Bremen   Freiburg      11   965  954    451    43  27   30      More   2.45   105%   BetVictor     3.60   97%   BetVictor     3.20   96%   Ladbrokes    
2014-10-04  3004651   Hoffenheim   Schalke      26   1046  1021    406    45  27   28    +   More   2.45   110%   Pinnacle     3.75   101%   BetVictor     3.00   84%   Coral    
2014-10-04  3004650   Dortmund   Hamburg    +   151   1077  926    219    69  20   11      More   1.37   95%   Interwetten     5.66   113%   Pinnacle     9.49   104%   Pinnacle    
2014-10-04  3004649   Bayern_Munich   Hannover    +   262   1192  930    15    93  0       More   1.16   108%   MyBet     9.58   0%   Pinnacle     23.00   161%   BetVictor    
2014-10-04  3004648   Leverkusen   Paderborn    +   108   1059  951    458    62  23   15      More   1.40   87%   Interwetten     5.82   134%   Pinnacle     10.58   159%   Pinnacle    
2014-10-04  2005380   Milan_AC   Chievo    +   94   1065  972    184    63  26   11      More   1.44   91%   BetVictor     4.75   124%   Bet365     9.93   109%   Pinnacle    
2014-10-04  2005379   Verona   Cagliari      42   999  957    340    46  33   21    =   More   2.11   97%   BetOnline     3.50   116%   BetVictor     3.91   82%   Pinnacle    
2014-10-04  1005786   Aston_Villa   Man_City    -   -168   956  1124    68    15  18   68      More   7.64   115%   Pinnacle     4.52   81%   Pinnacle     1.55   105%   Interwetten    
2014-10-04  1005785   Swansea   Newcastle      78   1013  936    524    52  27   21      More   1.89   98%   Betsson     3.69   100%   Pinnacle     4.75   100%   BetVictor    
2014-10-04  1005784   Sunderland   Stoke_City    =   -5   982  987    604    44  26   30      More   2.61   115%   Pinnacle     3.25   85%   Betway     3.13   94%   BetVictor    
2014-10-04  1005783   Liverpool   WBA    +   115   1084  969    319    64  24   13    =   More   1.45   93%   Pinnacle     5.00   120%   BetVictor     8.50   111%   BetVictor    
2014-10-04  1005782   Leicester   Burnley    +   118   995  877    166    57  28   16      More   1.80   103%   Coral     3.80   106%   Pinnacle     5.20   83%   BetVictor    
2014-10-04  1005781   Hull_City   Crystal_Palace      -59   951  1009    233    39  28   33      More   2.20   86%   Interwetten     3.52   99%   Pinnacle     4.10   135%   BetVictor    
2014-10-03  6006141   Getafe   Cordoba      35   952  917    134    50  31   19      More   2.08   104%   Pinnacle     3.40   105%   Coral     4.30   82%   BetVictor    
2014-10-03  3004647   Hertha_Berlin   Stuttgart      -39   954  994    348    35  26   39      More   2.40   84%   BetVictor     3.50   91%   BetVictor     3.25   127%   Pinnacle    
2014-10-01  4002271   Arsenal   Galatasaray    +   132   1012  880    88    75  15   10      More   1.57   118%   Pinnacle     4.50   68%   Bet365     6.50   65%   Bet365    
2014-10-01  4002270   Anderlecht   Dortmund    -   -145   830  975    19    32   68      More   6.00   0%   Bet365     4.26   136%   Pinnacle     1.65   112%   Interwetten    
2014-10-01  4002269   Leverkusen   Benfica    +   96   999  904    105    62  24   14      More   1.91   118%   Bet365     3.84   92%   Pinnacle     4.50   63%   Ladbrokes    
2014-10-01  4002268   Ludogorets   Real_Madrid    -   -192   855  1047      0   100      More   16.75   0%   Pinnacle     8.00   0%   Bet365     1.20   120%   Bet365    
2014-10-01  4002267   Basel   Liverpool      -57   944  1001    79    27  38   35    -   More   3.80   103%   Bet365     3.64   138%   Pinnacle     2.12   74%   Pinnacle    
2014-10-01  4002266   Malmo   Olympiakos      -21   880  901    44    36  36   27      More   4.09   147%   Pinnacle     3.50   126%   Bet365     2.20   59%   Interwetten    
2014-10-01  4002265   Atletico_Madrid   Juventus      56   1016  961    96    55  22   23    +   More   2.20   121%   Bet365     3.40   75%   Ladbrokes     3.89   89%   Pinnacle    
2014-10-01  4002264   Zenit_St_Petersburg   Monaco      31   947  916    123    54  22   24      More   1.73   93%   BetVictor     3.99   88%   Pinnacle     5.75   138%   Bet365    

 

A BASIC KEY FOR THE SPREADSHEET : (in response to a few queries on Twitter and Facebook)

RATINGS : These are the ratings for the two teams adjusted for the venue. H = Home Team, A = Away Team, M = Margin between the two sides.
NOTES : A one goal margin win (on average) is 100 points - but given randomness, poisson distribution and standard devation - even 50-75 points is a strong indicator.

PICKS : There are two pick types ...
ML PK = Most likely pick (the most likely result). + is a home win, = is a draw, - is an away win. These are usually obvious to most punters.
DV PK = Discovered Value Pick. + is a home win, = is a draw, - is an away win. These consider the potential risk/reward of odds and potential profits.

OTHER STUFF : Some other notes about the sheet.
OBS : The number of Observations (or previous games) that have helped to shape the result %. The more obs, the better accuracy. 100+ obs is good data.
RESULT % : HW = Home Win, D = Draw. AW = Away Win. These are percentage estimates based on results from previous games with similar ratings.
VAL : This is the potential value of the decimal odds, when considering the expected result %. Eg. 2.00 * 50% = 100% value which is fair value

NOTES : Obvious winners and big favourites are very rarely "good value".
The bookies know they're likely to win too and usually offer a poor price and taking these bets usually means a losing season overall. Always look for value. (100% or better)

If there is anything else you need to know - drop me a line on the GoonersGuide Facebook Page.

 

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