Gooners Football Spreadsheet betting analysis

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SPREADSHEET PREDICTIONS - NAVIGATION MENU

INSIDE THE NUMB3RS - THE CURRENT BETTING SHEET PREDICTIONS

TEAMS   ML   RATINGS     RESULT %   DV SHEET   HOME ODDS   DRAW ODDS   AWAY ODDS  
DATE GAME_ID HOME AWAY   PK   M H A   OBS   HW D AW   PK STATS   $ Val Bookie   $ Val Bookie   $ Val Bookie  
No Matches to display

 

A BASIC KEY FOR THE SPREADSHEET : (in response to a few queries on Twitter and Facebook)

RATINGS : These are the ratings for the two teams adjusted for the venue. H = Home Team, A = Away Team, M = Margin between the two sides.
NOTES : A one goal margin win (on average) is 100 points - but given randomness, poisson distribution and standard devation - even 50-75 points is a strong indicator.

PICKS : There are two pick types ...
ML PK = Most likely pick (the most likely result). + is a home win, = is a draw, - is an away win. These are usually obvious to most punters.
DV PK = Discovered Value Pick. + is a home win, = is a draw, - is an away win. These consider the potential risk/reward of odds and potential profits.

OTHER STUFF : Some other notes about the sheet.
OBS : The number of Observations (or previous games) that have helped to shape the result %. The more obs, the better accuracy. 100+ obs is good data.
RESULT % : HW = Home Win, D = Draw. AW = Away Win. These are percentage estimates based on results from previous games with similar ratings.
VAL : This is the potential value of the decimal odds, when considering the expected result %. Eg. 2.00 * 50% = 100% value which is fair value

NOTES : Obvious winners and big favourites are very rarely "good value".
The bookies know they're likely to win too and usually offer a poor price and taking these bets usually means a losing season overall. Always look for value. (100% or better)

If there is anything else you need to know - drop me a line on the GoonersGuide Facebook Page.

 

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RECOMMENDED BOOKMAKER SITES : Direct Bet links :
Bet365 | BetFred | BetVictor | BoyleSports | Coral | Centrebet | ColossusPools | Interwetten | Ladbrokes | MyBet | Paddy Power | PinnacleSports |

OFFSHORE SPORTSBOOKS (US PLAYERS) :
BetOnline | Bookmaker.com | Bovada |



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Gooners Football Betting Spreadsheet