Gooners Football Spreadsheet betting analysis

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SPREADSHEET PREDICTIONS - NAVIGATION MENU

INSIDE THE NUMB3RS - THE CURRENT BETTING SHEET PREDICTIONS

TEAMS   ML   RATINGS     RESULT %   DV SHEET   HOME ODDS   DRAW ODDS   AWAY ODDS  
DATE GAME_ID HOME AWAY   PK   M H A   OBS   HW D AW   PK STATS   $ Val Bookie   $ Val Bookie   $ Val Bookie  
2014-05-26  3004572   Leverkusen   Dortmund      -64   1048  1112    35    20  31   49      More   3.17   63%   Pinnacle     3.75   116%   BetVictor     2.32   114%   Pinnacle    
2014-05-26  3004571   Wolfsburg   Freiburg    +   99   1053  954    485    62  23   15      More   1.47   91%   Interwetten     5.11   118%   Pinnacle     7.42   111%   Pinnacle    
2014-05-26  3004570   Mainz   Nurnberg    +   101   1047  946    494    61  24   15      More   1.67   102%   BetVictor     4.21   101%   Pinnacle     5.75   86%   Pinnacle    
2014-05-26  3004569   Hoffenheim   Eintracht_F      94   1048  954    516    61  23   16      More   1.96   120%   Pinnacle     4.00   92%   BetVictor     3.85   62%   Pinnacle    
2014-05-26  3004568   Hertha_Berlin   Braunschweig      27   950  923    228    48  22   29      More   2.05   98%   BetVictor     3.61   79%   Pinnacle     4.20   122%   Ladbrokes    
2014-05-26  3004567   Bayern_Munich   Bremen    +   234   1185  952    34    85  12       More   1.25   106%   Pinnacle     7.13   86%   Pinnacle     13.50   41%   Betsson    
2014-04-28  6006049   Celta_Vigo   Valladolid      35   947  912    99    49  35   15      More   1.85   91%   Pinnacle     3.75   131%   Bet365     4.82   72%   Pinnacle    
2014-04-28  2005298   Sassuolo   Juventus    -   -180   924  1104    14    21   71      More   9.00   63%   BetVictor     5.00   105%   Ladbrokes     1.45   103%   Interwetten    
2014-04-28  1005697   Arsenal   Newcastle    +   150   1115  965    359    74  19       More   1.30   96%   BetVictor     6.22   118%   Pinnacle     12.53   100%   Pinnacle    
2014-04-27  7004583   Zwolle   PSV      -46   1010  1055    198    31  19   50      More   5.25   163%   BetVictor     4.27   81%   Pinnacle     1.73   87%   Coral    
2014-04-27  7004582   Vitesse   GA_Eagles    +   142   1054  912    282    69  21   10      More   1.33   92%   BetVictor     6.11   128%   Pinnacle     11.00   110%   Bet365    
2014-04-27  7004581   Roda   Groningen      -27   974  1001    310    35  28   37      More   2.60   91%   Coral     3.84   108%   Pinnacle     2.82   104%   Pinnacle    
2014-04-27  7004580   Nijmegen   Twente    -   -99   948  1047    118    24  23   53      More   5.00   120%   Bet365     4.28   98%   Pinnacle     1.75   93%   BetVictor    
2014-04-27  7004579   Heracles   Ajax    -   -152   952  1104    102    22   72      More   5.75   40%   Bet365     4.37   96%   Pinnacle     1.67   120%   BetVictor    
2014-04-27  7004578   Heerenveen   Utrecht    +   91   1043  952    335    59  20   21      More   1.55   91%   MyBet     4.87   97%   Pinnacle     6.10   128%   Betsson    
2014-04-27  7004577   Feyenoord   Cambuur    +   205   1153  948    180    83  12       More   1.25   104%   Bet365     6.77   81%   Pinnacle     15.00   60%   Coral    
2014-04-27  7004576   Den_Haag   AZ_Alkmaar      24   1010  986    404    47  27   27      More   2.65   125%   Pinnacle     3.60   97%   BetVictor     2.81   76%   Pinnacle    
2014-04-27  7004575   Breda   Waalwijk      49   998  949    418    52  23   25      More   2.05   107%   Coral     3.76   86%   Pinnacle     3.80   95%   Bet365    
2014-04-27  6006048   Villarreal   Barcelona      -88   1005  1094    17    24  12   65      More   7.49   180%   Pinnacle     4.84   58%   Pinnacle     1.50   98%   BetVictor    
2014-04-27  6006047   Bilbao   Sevilla      63   1063  1000    89    49  26   25      More   1.96   96%   Pinnacle     3.81   99%   Pinnacle     4.03   101%   Pinnacle    
2014-04-27  6006046   Valencia   Atletico_Madrid      -52   1018  1070    25    36  28   36      More   4.92   177%   Pinnacle     3.75   105%   Bet365     1.85   67%   MyBet    
2014-04-27  6006045   Espanyol   Almeria    +   114   987  873    67    57  27   16      More   1.70   97%   Ladbrokes     4.13   112%   Pinnacle     5.50   88%   Bet365    
2014-04-27  3004574   Schalke   Monchengladbach    +   141   1125  984    143    66  18   16      More   2.01   133%   Pinnacle     3.77   68%   Pinnacle     3.90   62%   Pinnacle    
2014-04-27  3004573   Augsberg   Hamburg      75   1008  933    516    53  27   21      More   1.91   101%   BetVictor     3.75   101%   Pinnacle     4.47   94%   Pinnacle    
2014-04-27  2005297   Atalanta   Genoa      33   989  957    307    41  34   25    =   More   2.25   92%   Pinnacle     3.40   116%   Bet365     3.70   93%   BetVictor    
2014-04-27  2005296   Torino   Udinese      35   1007  972    263    51  27   21      More   1.95   99%   Ladbrokes     3.62   98%   Pinnacle     4.75   100%   Bet365    
2014-04-27  2005295   Sampdoria   Chievo      58   998  941    313    50  32   17    =   More   2.47   124%   Pinnacle     3.20   102%   Bet365     3.40   58%   BetVictor    
2014-04-27  2005294   Livorno   Lazio      -22   946  968    132    37  28   35      More   3.40   126%   BetVictor     3.58   100%   Pinnacle     2.29   80%   Pinnacle    
2014-04-27  2005293   Cagliari   Parma      -44   976  1020    131    33  24   44      More   3.30   109%   BetVictor     3.33   80%   Pinnacle     2.40   106%   BetVictor    
2014-04-27  2005292   Verona   Cagliari      20   980  960    256    41  34   25      More   2.31   95%   Pinnacle     3.62   123%   Pinnacle     3.30   83%   Ladbrokes    
2014-04-27  1005696   Crystal_Palace   Man_City    -   -106   991  1097    192    16  21   63      More   8.07   129%   Pinnacle     5.09   107%   Pinnacle     1.45   91%   BetVictor    
2014-04-27  1005695   Liverpool   Chelsea    +   104   1164  1060    86    64  20   16      More   1.71   109%   Pinnacle     4.20   84%   MyBet     5.25   84%   BetVictor    
2014-04-27  1005694   Sunderland   Cardiff    =   -3   939  942    250    41  34   25      More   1.95   80%   BetVictor     3.70   126%   Pinnacle     4.33   108%   Bet365    
2014-04-26  6006044   Real_Betis   Real_Sociedad      -43   914  957    46    43  22   35      More   3.30   142%   Interwetten     3.76   83%   Pinnacle     2.30   81%   Ladbrokes    
2014-04-26  6006043   Real_Madrid   Osasuna    +   313   1219  905    47    98  0       More   1.07   105%   Pinnacle     19.78   0%   Pinnacle     36.00   72%   BetVictor    
2014-04-26  6006042   Getafe   Malaga      -31   930  961    114    36  29   35      More   2.15   77%   Ladbrokes     3.41   99%   Pinnacle     3.90   137%   BetVictor    
2014-04-26  6006041   Granada   Vallecano      57   990  933    302    47  29   24      More   2.30   108%   BetVictor     3.55   103%   Pinnacle     3.34   80%   Pinnacle    
2014-04-26  2005291   Inter_Milan   Napoli      -62   985  1047    119    16  33   51      More   2.30   37%   Ladbrokes     3.54   117%   Pinnacle     3.44   175%   Pinnacle    
2014-04-26  2005290   Bologna   Fiorentina    -   -108   961  1069    73    16  40   44      More   3.75   60%   BetVictor     3.30   132%   Bet365     2.25   99%   Pinnacle    
2014-04-26  1005693   Man_Utd   Norwich    +   177   1032  855    58    69  22       More   1.40   97%   BetVictor     5.28   116%   Pinnacle     9.54   86%   Pinnacle    
2014-04-26  1005692   WBA   West_Ham      17   978  961    632    46  28   27    +   More   1.95   90%   BetVictor     3.80   106%   Pinnacle     4.20   113%   BetVictor    
2014-04-26  1005691   Swansea   Aston_Villa      39   1000  961    701    45  29   26      More   1.70   77%   BetVictor     3.82   111%   Pinnacle     6.00   156%   BetVictor    
2014-04-26  1005690   Stoke_City   Tottenham      25   1046  1021    313    43  27   30      More   3.19   137%   Pinnacle     3.52   95%   Pinnacle     2.45   74%   BetVictor    
2014-04-26  1005689   Fulham   Hull_City      -23   932  955    202    43  28   29      More   2.30   99%   BetVictor     3.43   96%   Pinnacle     3.51   102%   Pinnacle    
2014-04-26  1005688   Southampton   Everton      -39   1000  1040    267    33  28   39      More   2.97   98%   Pinnacle     3.57   100%   Pinnacle     2.50   98%   BetVictor    
2014-04-25  6006040   Elche   Levante      -10   972  982    276    46  24   30    +   More   1.70   78%   Ladbrokes     3.75   90%   BetVictor     6.65   200%   Pinnacle    
2014-04-25  3004566   Hannover   Stuttgart      53   1011  958    676    48  25   27      More   2.82   135%   Pinnacle     3.60   90%   BetVictor     2.70   73%   Ladbrokes    
2014-04-25  2005289   Roma_AS   Milan_AC    +   112   1139  1027    10    30  50   20      More   1.90   57%   Interwetten     3.76   188%   Pinnacle     5.00   100%   Coral    

 

A BASIC KEY FOR THE SPREADSHEET : (in response to a few queries on Twitter and Facebook)

RATINGS : These are the ratings for the two teams adjusted for the venue. H = Home Team, A = Away Team, M = Margin between the two sides.
NOTES : A one goal margin win (on average) is 100 points - but given randomness, poisson distribution and standard devation - even 50-75 points is a strong indicator.

PICKS : There are two pick types ...
ML PK = Most likely pick (the most likely result). + is a home win, = is a draw, - is an away win. These are usually obvious to most punters.
DV PK = Discovered Value Pick. + is a home win, = is a draw, - is an away win. These consider the potential risk/reward of odds and potential profits.

OTHER STUFF : Some other notes about the sheet.
OBS : The number of Observations (or previous games) that have helped to shape the result %. The more obs, the better accuracy. 100+ obs is good data.
RESULT % : HW = Home Win, D = Draw. AW = Away Win. These are percentage estimates based on results from previous games with similar ratings.
VAL : This is the potential value of the decimal odds, when considering the expected result %. Eg. 2.00 * 50% = 100% value which is fair value

NOTES : Obvious winners and big favourites are very rarely "good value".
The bookies know they're likely to win too and usually offer a poor price and taking these bets usually means a losing season overall. Always look for value. (100% or better)

If there is anything else you need to know - drop me a line on the GoonersGuide Facebook Page.

 

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