Gooners Football Spreadsheet betting analysis

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SPREADSHEET PREDICTIONS - NAVIGATION MENU

INSIDE THE NUMB3RS - THE CURRENT BETTING SHEET PREDICTIONS

TEAMS   ML   RATINGS     RESULT %   DV SHEET   HOME ODDS   DRAW ODDS   AWAY ODDS  
DATE GAME_ID HOME AWAY   PK   M H A   OBS   HW D AW   PK STATS   $ Val Bookie   $ Val Bookie   $ Val Bookie  
2014-11-26  4002319   Arsenal   Dortmund      5   1013  1008    65    38  31   31    -   More   2.40   91%   Bet365     3.60   112%   BetVictor     3.13   97%   Pinnacle    
2014-11-26  4002318   Anderlecht   Galatasaray      -32   823  855    23    39  22   39      More   2.29   89%   BetOnline     3.56   78%   Pinnacle     3.42   133%   Pinnacle    
2014-11-26  4002317   Leverkusen   Monaco    +   107   1021  914    81    69  16   15      More   1.65   114%   BetVictor     4.16   67%   Pinnacle     6.00   90%   BetVictor    
2014-11-26  4002316   Ludogorets   Liverpool    -   -117   876  993    23    13  35   52      More   4.50   59%   Coral     3.75   131%   Coral     1.93   100%   Pinnacle    
2014-11-26  4002315   Basel   Real_Madrid      -76   978  1055    12    17  50   33      More   8.41   143%   Pinnacle     5.27   264%   Pinnacle     1.45   48%   Interwetten    
2014-11-26  4002314   Malmo   Juventus      -63   888  951    32    31  22   47      More   11.17   346%   Pinnacle     5.41   119%   Pinnacle     1.40   66%   Interwetten    
2014-11-26  4002313   Atletico_Madrid   Olympiakos    +   155   1041  886    73    84  11       More   1.37   115%   Pinnacle     5.00   55%   BetVictor     11.00   55%   BetVictor    
2014-11-26  4002312   Zenit_St_Petersburg   Benfica      28   931  903    105    50  25   26      More   2.12   106%   Pinnacle     3.50   88%   BetVictor     3.84   100%   BetVictor    

 

A BASIC KEY FOR THE SPREADSHEET : (in response to a few queries on Twitter and Facebook)

RATINGS : These are the ratings for the two teams adjusted for the venue. H = Home Team, A = Away Team, M = Margin between the two sides.
NOTES : A one goal margin win (on average) is 100 points - but given randomness, poisson distribution and standard devation - even 50-75 points is a strong indicator.

PICKS : There are two pick types ...
ML PK = Most likely pick (the most likely result). + is a home win, = is a draw, - is an away win. These are usually obvious to most punters.
DV PK = Discovered Value Pick. + is a home win, = is a draw, - is an away win. These consider the potential risk/reward of odds and potential profits.

OTHER STUFF : Some other notes about the sheet.
OBS : The number of Observations (or previous games) that have helped to shape the result %. The more obs, the better accuracy. 100+ obs is good data.
RESULT % : HW = Home Win, D = Draw. AW = Away Win. These are percentage estimates based on results from previous games with similar ratings.
VAL : This is the potential value of the decimal odds, when considering the expected result %. Eg. 2.00 * 50% = 100% value which is fair value

NOTES : Obvious winners and big favourites are very rarely "good value".
The bookies know they're likely to win too and usually offer a poor price and taking these bets usually means a losing season overall. Always look for value. (100% or better)

If there is anything else you need to know - drop me a line on the GoonersGuide Facebook Page.

 

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RECOMMENDED BOOKMAKER SITES : Direct Bet links :
Bet365 | BetFred | BetVictor | BoyleSports | Coral | Centrebet | ColossusPools | Interwetten | Ladbrokes | MyBet | Paddy Power | PinnacleSports | SkyBet |

OFFSHORE SPORTSBOOKS (US PLAYERS) :
BetOnline | Bookmaker.com | Bovada | Nitrogen Sports |



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Gooners Football Betting Spreadsheet