Gooners Football Spreadsheet betting analysis

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SPREADSHEET PREDICTIONS - NAVIGATION MENU

INSIDE THE NUMB3RS - THE CURRENT BETTING SHEET PREDICTIONS

TEAMS   ML   RATINGS     RESULT %   DV SHEET   HOME ODDS   DRAW ODDS   AWAY ODDS  
DATE GAME_ID HOME AWAY   PK   M H A   OBS   HW D AW   PK STATS   $ Val Bookie   $ Val Bookie   $ Val Bookie  
2014-11-03  6006180   Vallecano   Eibar      5   964  959    283    45  23   33      More   2.10   95%   Coral     3.44   79%   Pinnacle     4.10   135%   BetVictor    
2014-11-03  2005428   Lazio   Cagliari      69   1043  974    187    46  35   19      More   1.57   72%   BetVictor     4.10   144%   MyBet     6.50   124%   Bet365    
2014-11-03  2005427   Cesena   Verona      -3   952  955    180    48  31   21      More   3.00   144%   BetVictor     3.30   102%   Ladbrokes     2.65   56%   MyBet    
2014-11-03  1005820   Crystal_Palace   Sunderland      23   986  963    691    47  27   25      More   2.15   101%   Ladbrokes     3.50   95%   Pinnacle     4.00   100%   BetVictor    
2014-11-02  6006179   Elche   Espanyol      -13   934  947    120    37  32   32      More   2.80   104%   BetVictor     3.20   102%   MyBet     2.91   93%   Pinnacle    
2014-11-02  6006178   Levante   Almeria      -27   909  937    29    45  31   24      More   2.54   114%   Pinnacle     3.30   102%   Interwetten     3.20   77%   BetVictor    
2014-11-02  6006177   Villarreal   Valencia      54   1033  979    201    50  24   25      More   2.30   115%   Interwetten     3.71   89%   Pinnacle     3.72   93%   Pinnacle    
2014-11-02  6006176   Bilbao   Sevilla      50   1040  990    160    52  26   22      More   2.50   130%   BetVictor     3.47   90%   Pinnacle     3.10   68%   Bet365    
2014-11-02  3004682   Paderborn   Hertha_Berlin      -1   970  971    549    38  28   34      More   2.75   105%   Pinnacle     3.50   98%   Bet365     2.80   95%   Ladbrokes    
2014-11-02  3004681   Cologne   Freiburg      54   999  945    602    50  24   26      More   1.95   98%   Ladbrokes     3.65   88%   MyBet     4.51   117%   Pinnacle    
2014-11-02  3004680   Monchengladbach   Hoffenheim      89   1072  983    376    57  24   20      More   2.05   117%   BetVictor     3.75   90%   BetVictor     4.00   80%   MyBet    
2014-11-02  2005426   Milan_AC   Palermo    +   127   1074  947    223    66  25     =   More   1.53   101%   Coral     4.33   108%   BetVictor     7.50   68%   BetVictor    
2014-11-02  2005425   Udinese   Genoa      58   1038  981    174    50  30   20    +   More   2.05   103%   Bet365     3.50   105%   Ladbrokes     4.20   84%   BetVictor    
2014-11-02  2005424   Torino   Atalanta      74   1024  950    295    54  27   19      More   2.00   108%   Coral     3.40   92%   Bet365     4.60   87%   BetVictor    
2014-11-02  2005423   Sampdoria   Fiorentina      -46   1018  1064    87    17  31   52      More   3.00   51%   BetVictor     3.25   101%   Ladbrokes     2.70   140%   BetVictor    
2014-11-02  2005422   Chievo   Sassuolo      -12   959  971    194    38  31   31      More   2.50   95%   BetVictor     3.30   102%   Interwetten     3.20   99%   BetVictor    
2014-11-02  1005819   Aston_Villa   Tottenham      -63   953  1016    237    35  29   35      More   3.85   135%   Pinnacle     3.58   104%   Pinnacle     2.15   75%   Ladbrokes    
2014-11-02  1005818   Man_City   Man_Utd    +   137   1168  1031    156    69  21   11      More   1.90   131%   Interwetten     4.02   84%   Pinnacle     4.75   52%   BetVictor    
2014-11-01  6006175   Real_Sociedad   Malaga      58   1004  946    360    48  27   25      More   2.24   108%   Pinnacle     3.50   95%   BetVictor     3.75   94%   Ladbrokes    
2014-11-01  6006174   Barcelona   Celta_Vigo    +   217   1219  1002    45    84  13       More   1.15   97%   BetVictor     10.56   137%   Pinnacle     23.48   47%   Pinnacle    
2014-11-01  6006173   Atletico_Madrid   Cordoba    +   194   1114  921    91    82  11       More   1.22   100%   Interwetten     7.06   78%   Pinnacle     21.00   147%   BetVictor    
2014-11-01  6006172   Granada   Real_Madrid    -   -196   924  1121    16    13  19   69      More   14.00   182%   Interwetten     6.55   124%   Pinnacle     1.26   87%   Pinnacle    
2014-11-01  3004679   Bayern_Munich   Dortmund    +   145   1218  1073      100  0       More   1.55   155%   BetVictor     4.77   0%   Pinnacle     6.81   0%   Pinnacle    
2014-11-01  3004678   Stuttgart   Wolfsburg      -54   980  1034    348    30  26   43      More   3.24   97%   Pinnacle     3.64   95%   Pinnacle     2.35   101%   Interwetten    
2014-11-01  3004677   Mainz   Bremen    +   125   1057  932    319    66  22   12      More   1.81   119%   Pinnacle     4.03   89%   Pinnacle     4.75   57%   Ladbrokes    
2014-11-01  3004676   Hannover   Eintracht_F      42   1016  974    751    46  28   27      More   2.40   110%   MyBet     3.65   102%   Pinnacle     3.12   84%   Pinnacle    
2014-11-01  3004675   Hamburg   Leverkusen    -   -95   951  1046    141    25  28   48      More   3.95   99%   Pinnacle     3.76   105%   Pinnacle     2.10   101%   Interwetten    
2014-11-01  2005421   Parma   Inter_Milan      -29   983  1012    162    35  23   42      More   3.20   112%   BetVictor     3.40   78%   Coral     2.40   101%   BetVictor    
2014-11-01  2005420   Empoli   Juventus    -   -131   964  1095    43    16  28   56      More   9.50   152%   BetVictor     4.50   126%   Ladbrokes     1.45   81%   MyBet    
2014-11-01  2005419   Napoli   Roma_AS      67   1113  1046    23    30  35   35      More   2.45   74%   MyBet     3.40   119%   BetVictor     3.13   110%   BetVictor    
2014-11-01  1005817   Stoke_City   West_Ham      35   1019  984    632    48  26   26      More   2.26   108%   BetOnline     3.41   89%   Pinnacle     3.50   91%   BetVictor    
2014-11-01  1005816   Leicester   WBA      12   983  971    654    46  26   28    +   More   2.26   104%   Pinnacle     3.50   91%   Pinnacle     3.43   96%   Pinnacle    
2014-11-01  1005815   Hull_City   Southampton      -48   973  1022    292    34  29   37      More   3.92   133%   Pinnacle     3.50   102%   Bet365     2.10   78%   BetVictor    
2014-11-01  1005814   Everton   Swansea      66   1054  988    403    50  28   22      More   1.75   88%   BetVictor     3.88   109%   Pinnacle     5.30   117%   Pinnacle    
2014-11-01  1005813   Chelsea   QPR    +   263   1160  898    106    82  11       More   1.18   97%   BetVictor     8.16   90%   Pinnacle     19.66   138%   Pinnacle    
2014-11-01  1005812   Arsenal   Burnley    +   204   1093  889    139    72  19       More   1.30   94%   Interwetten     6.25   119%   MyBet     13.10   118%   Pinnacle    
2014-11-01  1005811   Newcastle   Liverpool    -   -106   966  1072    195    21  18   62      More   4.10   86%   BetVictor     3.75   68%   BetVictor     2.00   124%   Coral    
2014-10-31  6006171   La_Coruna   Getafe      20   970  949    302    44  25   31      More   2.23   98%   Pinnacle     3.40   85%   Coral     3.95   122%   Betsson    
2014-10-31  3004674   Schalke   Augsberg    +   137   1126  988    132    65  19   16      More   1.95   127%   BetVictor     3.75   71%   BetVictor     4.50   72%   Pinnacle    

 

A BASIC KEY FOR THE SPREADSHEET : (in response to a few queries on Twitter and Facebook)

RATINGS : These are the ratings for the two teams adjusted for the venue. H = Home Team, A = Away Team, M = Margin between the two sides.
NOTES : A one goal margin win (on average) is 100 points - but given randomness, poisson distribution and standard devation - even 50-75 points is a strong indicator.

PICKS : There are two pick types ...
ML PK = Most likely pick (the most likely result). + is a home win, = is a draw, - is an away win. These are usually obvious to most punters.
DV PK = Discovered Value Pick. + is a home win, = is a draw, - is an away win. These consider the potential risk/reward of odds and potential profits.

OTHER STUFF : Some other notes about the sheet.
OBS : The number of Observations (or previous games) that have helped to shape the result %. The more obs, the better accuracy. 100+ obs is good data.
RESULT % : HW = Home Win, D = Draw. AW = Away Win. These are percentage estimates based on results from previous games with similar ratings.
VAL : This is the potential value of the decimal odds, when considering the expected result %. Eg. 2.00 * 50% = 100% value which is fair value

NOTES : Obvious winners and big favourites are very rarely "good value".
The bookies know they're likely to win too and usually offer a poor price and taking these bets usually means a losing season overall. Always look for value. (100% or better)

If there is anything else you need to know - drop me a line on the GoonersGuide Facebook Page.

 

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Gooners Football Betting Spreadsheet