NFL Football
2011-09-11 - Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
American Football : North America : NFL
Sunday, September 11th, 2011, 1:00PM US
(6:00PM GMT)
PREVIEW
Cracking opening match for us as these two defensive powerhouses renew their rivalry in Week 1. Matches between these two are always close, with the last 6 regular season games being decided by 4 points or less, and 3 of the last 8 going to OT. Understandably, the spread is set at just 1, but I think the wrong team is being favoured here.
Last season, with Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger out through suspension, Baltimore capitalised in a come-from-behind win, with Joe Flacco chucking a TD pass with 30 seconds to go to win 17-14. Later in the season, Roethlisberger led his side to a 13-10 win, with Polamalu sacking Flacco to cause the late fumble leading to a touchdown. Thrilling stuff, but none as thrilling as the playoff match between these two, where Big Ben led his team from a 14 point HT deficit to a 31-24 win to reach the Superbowl. When the chips were down, the Steelers had a 24-3 2nd half. That is telling. Here's the bottom line, the last 7 times the Steelers have played this match with Ben throwing the ball, they have won.
The big change here, and one that will effect the game, is all the new faces Baltimore will field. The Ravens got rid of WR Derrick Mason, TE Todd Heap, RB Willis McGahee and NT Kelly Gregg. In their place come Lee Evans (not the comedian), Ricky Williams and Bryant McKinnie. Mc Kinnie should help protect Flacco a bit more while Williams is a direct replacement for McGahee. Decent signings but it still means they won't be as gelled together as Pittsburgh are. It showed in preseason.
Polamalu and the rest of his team are big game players. They live for these games and the pressure it forces them in. Polamalu can always be relied on and last year the Steelers won every game in which he came up with an interception. The man will likely try and get to Flacco like he did last year and I don't feel the Ravens QB will be protected as well as the Steelers will protect Ben. Look for a couple of key turnovers to change this game around, not to mention Bens ability to throw big passes when he needs to.
BETTING VERDICT
This is going to be a defensive match. Pittsburgh gave up the fewest points during last years regular season, while Baltimore gave up the 3rd least. Pittsburgh allowed the least rushing yards during the regular season while Baltimore gave up the 5th fewest.
It'll be tight, but I have to give the edge to Pittsburgh here. To get them with a point is value as Pittsburgh have been impressive in the pre-season and Baltimore are still dealing with fresh faces, which will have an effect.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Pittsburgh Steelers
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take the Pittsburgh Steelers +1 @ 2.04 (Pinnacle)
