NCAA Football
2011-09-23 - UCF Knights at BYU Cougars
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
American Football : North America : NCAAF
Friday, September 23rd, 2011, 8:00PM US
(1:00AM GMT)
PREVIEW
The UCF Knights are 2-1 and come into this off a tough loss last week. They beat Boston brilliantly earlier, 30-3, but FIU caught them out last week and dealt them a 17-10 loss. Amazingly, it was the first time UCF had surrendered a touchdown!
That loss, their only one so far, was due to the offence not doing their job, because keeping an opponent to just 17 is impressive. In fact, UCF own the best defence in many categories in C-USA and are best in the nation when defending the pass, giving up just 94 yards per game through their first 3 matches.
UCF have allowed 167 yards of total offence combined in their 3 games. That is bloody brilliant when you think they were playing the likes of Florida International and Boston College. Jonathon Davis leads the team with 18 tackles so far, with a 3rd of them resulting in a loss of yards for the opposition.
Now here's the problem for BYU. Their offence depends on their QB and the passing game. Jake Heaps has thrown 3 TDs in 722 yards of work but he has also been intercepted 4 times already. Heaps will get suffocated here by UCF's defence and with the ground game managing under 50 yards per game, I don't see how BYU can score here. The Cougars haven't managed to rush in a single TD so far through 2 games and are 1-2 overall coming into this match.
Last week, BYU turned the ball over no fewer than 7 times against Utah, and they mauled them 54-10, scoring 47 unanswered point at one stage! Now, if they don't turn the ball over like that again, they will give UCF a fight, but this is still the best pass defence in the land and BYU are genuinely struggling to get things going without a hiccup.
Another thing, UCF is off next week as they have a bye. That means they have nothing to look ahead to and can focus on bouncing back from last weeks loss with a suffocation of BYU on National TV.
BETTING VERDICT
Quite amazingly, UCF are dogged here by 3 points. I fancy them outright so will take them with the FG start.
The Pick :
UCF
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take UCF +3 @ 1.95 (Pinnacle)
