NFL Football
2011-12-15 - Jacksonville Jaguars at Atlanta Falcons
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
American Football : North America : NFL
Thursday, December 15th, 2011, 8:20PM US
(1:20AM GMT)
PREVIEW
Last week Atlanta were 23-7 down against Carolina, staring at a loss, before Matt Ryan threw and led his team to a win, thanks to 16 unanswered points. Coach Mike Smith left the team plane and was hospitalised later that night (too much for him?) and joined the team on Monday. Anyway, Jacksonville come to the Dome to play them, but I feel this is a bad ATS spot for the Falcons, who play New Orleans next.
The Jags halted a 3 game losing streak in style, crushing Tampa Bay 41-14 on the back of their biggest offensive output this season. The Jags, newly acquired by a Pakistani born businessman from Illinois, will try to improve on their 4-9 mark in Atlanta, but I feel in the Dome, you have to go with Matt Ryan to get his team the win. Against the spread, I'm not so sure.
The Falcons have been very good this season against the run, but perhaps they are flagging. Carolina might have lost to them as Ryan went into hero mode, but they still managed to run for 157 yards. The week before, Houston managed 146 rushing yards against Atlanta. Jacksonville might not win, but they have a weapon in Maurice Jones-Drew, who had 4 TDs last week against Tampa Bay, giving him a new franchise record.
This is a bad spot for Atlanta, who had to give everything they had to get past Carolina from that massive deficit. Now, they are on a short week, probably in worse condition than the Jags, who rolled over their opponents, and they will just want to get the win and move on to preparations for next weeks huge game against divisional rivals, the New Orleans Saints. Remember, Atlanta lost a heartbreaker against the Saints a few weeks ago when they made a bad call in OT, and they need to win the next meeting against Brees and his team.
BETTING VERDICT
The line is hovering between 12 and 11 at different books (editor - it's now jumped to 13.5) but I feel there is a big chance of a letdown here from Atlanta.
In another situation, I'd expect Atlanta to win by two TDs but they have no need for a big win. Backdoor covers happen frequently in these spots and I'm going to go with the Jags at +12, as I can see them keeping this one within 10.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Jacksonville Jags cover
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take the Jacksonville Jaguars +13.5 @ 2.01 (Pinnacle)
