Champions League
2013-04-10 - Juventus vs Bayern Munich
A Sports Betting Pick by ROzsolt
Football : Champions League: Quarter finals
Venue: "Juventus Arena", Turin
Wednesday 10th April – Kickoff time: 20:45 GMT+1
Juventus
Juventus travelled to Munich on the back of an 18-match unbeaten run in UEFA competitions, but they were not match to the soon to be German champions, the Bianconeri were totally outplayed in a match in which they could have conceded more.
Juve had gone 490 minutes without conceding in the competition, since a FC Nordsjælland goal on matchday three, but it only took David Alaba 25 seconds to find the net at the Fusball Arena.
Barcelona set a good example for Juventus in the previous leg when they’ve overturned a 2-0 deficit against AC Milan, but it’s difficult to compare any side with Barcelona.
However, Arsenal was close to cause a huge upset in the second leg of the round of 16 against Bayern, they managed to score twice in Munich and were close to net a decisive third goal. That only proves that Bayern Munich can have bad days as well, especially if they are not 100% focused.
Juventus holds a solid W14 D2 L4 in their last 20 home games against Bundesliga opponents and they are also unbeaten in their last 11 home games in the competition. The last time they’ve lost a game in Turin in the UCL was back in 2009 when they’ve succumbed to a 4-1 defeat against Bayern on matchday six of the group stages.
Some of the regulars have been rested in the weekend match against Pescara, so we should see Pirlo and Chiellini back in the starting line-up, but Antonio Conte cannot count on Stephan Lichtsteiner and Arturo Vidal who are suspended. Striker Giovinco will probably miss this one out too through injury.
Probable Juventus line-up:
Bonucci, Barzagli, Chiellini
Padoin, Pogba, Pirlo, Marchisio, Peluso
Vucinic, Quagliarella
Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich’s superb home form continued with a comfortable 2-0 win over Juventus in the first leg of this tie and the German side’s objective of winning all three major trophies this season is looking more and more achievable.
Coach Jupp Heynckes praised his team’s performance after the first leg win, he declared that their plan to put pressure on Juventus and annihilate Andrea Pirlo couldn’t have worked any better.
They will now travel to Juventus in with the intention to preserve that lead and throughout their history they’ve been quite successful doing it, when winning 2-0 at home first they have recorded ten aggregate wins and only two defeats.
This will be Bayern Munich’s 15th meeting with Italian opposition in five seasons, their away record against Serie A sides stands at W5 D3 L9.
Bayern will travel to Turin without Toni Kroos who injured his adductor, but Javi Martinez is available again for the Germans after being suspended for the first leg.
Probable Bayern Munich line-up:
Lahm, Van Buyten, Dante, Alaba
Martinez, Schweinsteiger
Robben, Muller, Ribery
Mandzukic
The Betting Verdict
Juventus have won all five European quarter-finals they have played against German opponents, but I can’t see them pulling it off a sixth time, not after what happened in the first leg.
Bayern Munich suffered a scare in the previous round against Arsenal, so I guess they will be more careful this time. I think there is no stopping Bayern from qualifying for the semi-final the third time in four seasons.
The Bianconeri will have to play a perfect match in order to stand a chance, unlike their Saturday Serie A clash against bottom placed Pescara when they missed a bunch of chances and only found the net deep into the second half through a Vucinic penalty.
Their job seems nearly impossible though, they need to score at least twice with the fear that any Bayern Munich goal could end this tie and knowing what Bayern are capable of on counter attacks that could be a scary thought.
However, I can’t see the Germans pushing for the win since there is no need for it and Juventus are no mugs when playing at home, they won’t give up so easily even if Bayern will score, so I’ll take the Italians not to lose this match.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Juventus 1-1 Bayern Munich
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
