CHAMPIONS LEAGUE BETTING PICK - BARCELONA V PARIS SAINT-GERMAIN

Champions League

2013-04-10 - Barcelona vs Paris Saint-Germain

A Sports Betting Pick by Auls

Barcelona v Paris Saint-Germain
Football: European Champions League
Wednesday 10 April 2013 - Kick Off 7:45pm
This game is live on TV

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Barcelona

I think Barcelona have to consider themselves a little fortunate to have got away from the French capital with a draw, but they won't be overly happy as they did see Lionel Messi go down with an injury that may seem him miss this second leg. The favourites to reach the Semi Finals are Barcelona thanks to their 2 away goals from the first leg, but this tie is certainly not as clear cut as the bookies may think.

With La Liga in hand, Barcelona will be expected to reach their sixth straight Semi Final in the Champions League and join domestic rivals Real Madrid in the last four. Barcelona have a 13 point lead over Real Madrid in Spain, and they are unbeaten in all 4 home games in the Champions League this season, winning 3 of those games. They are unbeaten in 20 home games in the Champions League and will feel confident of completing the win in this tie at the Nou Camp.

Barcelona are unbeaten in their last 6 games in all competitions, including a 4-0 win over Milan in the Second Round of the Champions League that saw them come through to the Quarter Final with a 4-2 aggregate win. They have won 7 of their last 8 home games in all competitions, the only exception being a 1-3 loss to Real Madrid in the Copa Del Rey.

Lionel Messi will need a late fitness test, but he isn't the only concern for the home team in this one. Pedro and Adriano both need to pass fitness tests, while Javier Mascherano and Carles Puyol are both absent.

Paris Saint-Germain

The late equaliser at the Parc de Princes has given Paris Saint-Germain the belief that they are still in this tie, while their overall performance will have the side believing they are capable of hanging with one of the best teams in Europe. The injuries in the Barcelona squad will also provide some confidence for PSG as they need to either win the game 0-1, or score at least twice to give themselves a chance of shocking the Catalans.

After missing out on the title last season, Paris Saint-Germain are certainly on course to right that wrong as they lead Marseille by 7 points in the French domestic top flight. Further aiding the belief of the French side as they visit Spain will be the fact that they did beat Valencia 1-2 in this country in the Second Round, while Paris Saint-Germain have won their last 3 away games in the competition after a 1-0 loss to Porto in the Group Stage.

Paris Saint-Germain are unbeaten in their last 6 games in all competitions, although their away form hasn't been the best in recent games. PSG won 0-2 at Rennes on Saturday, but had not won any of their previous 3 away games, losing 2 of those games. However, goals haven't been a problem and Paris Saint-Germain have scored at least 2 goals in 7 of their last 9 away games in all competitions.

Blaise Matuidi got the second equaliser in this tie last week, but he is suspended, while Thiago Motta is a doubt. Alex and Thiago Silva both missed out on the win at Rennes, and will need late fitness tests to determine their availability.

Head to Head

This will be the second time that Barcelona will host Paris Saint-Germain following a 1-1 draw back in the 1995 Quarter Final that PSG eventually won 3-2 on aggregate.

Prediction

I have found it a little difficult finding an angle for this game, but the only thing I wanted to do was to get a decent way of backing the away side.

I considered Paris Saint-Germain to score, to score twice and eventually settled on Ezequiel Lavezzi to score at any time thanks to his scoring run in the Champions League. Lavezzi scored in both legs against Valencia and had scored in 4 straight Champions League games before last week and I do think PSG will create chances in this one.

As the most likely scorer of anything that comes his way, Lavezzi is worth an interest at 6.00 to take advantage of defensive issues Barcelona have had all season.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

BEST BETTING TIP :

I'll back Ezequiel Lavezzi to score anytime @ 6.00 (Coral)