World Cup
2009-06-06 - Uruguay vs Brazil
A Sports Betting Pick by Gooner
Football: FIFA World Cup 2010 South America (Conmebol) Qualifier
Saturday, 6th June 2009 - Kickoff 20:00 (16:00 local)
It's a big match in Montevideo to start things off in South American qualifying on Saturday, as Uruguay defend a 33 year old unbeaten home record in Montevideo against Brazil.
Uruguay (5th 4-5-3 21:10)
Uruguay come into this game with an unbeaten home record in qualification, although the home draws with Ecuador and Venezuela may end up proving to be significant dropped points at the end of the campaign.
Still there is plenty to be positive about this game for Uruguayan fans, as the home side have scored 21 goals in 12 games - the best in the competition - and in Atletico Madrid's Diego Forlan they have arguably the competition's best striker on show with 5 goals so far.
Uruguay always seem to push Brazil, and although the reverse fixture was lost 1-2 in Sao Paulo 18 months ago, there was little to choose between the sides on the night. This time there will be 70,000 Uruguay fans at the Centenario stadium which has to count for something.
Brazil (2nd 5-6-1 19:5)
Brazil are the world cup legends, and have a huge reputation in the tournament finals where the European sides fear the Samba men, but it's a different set of tasks in South American qualification.
Brazil have conceded just five goals so far, and make themselves incredibly difficult to beat, a feat that only Paraguay have managed so far in twelve games.
But with six draws in twelve games, betting on Brazil to win at cheap prices is just throwing away money, and even the bookmakers have realised that this time offering prices of 2.30 to 2.50 on the away win.
Brazil CAN win of course, their two recent road wins against Chile (3-0) and Venezuela (4-0) shows what happens if you let Brazil get in front early.
The Betting Verdict
In the past Brazil have lost four times and drawn three times when playing in the Uruguayan capital. It's a stat that will play large in the minds of both sets of players and is worth considering before lumping on Brazil to win.
In a match where the hype and expectation is high we often see a game that is played far below the potential, and where avoiding defeat becomes the priority.
A draw suits both teams well enough, keeping them in the top five (especially if Argentina beat Colombia as expected) and history says it's a pretty common result.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Uruguay 1-1 Brazil
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll back the DRAW.It might be worth taking FORLAN TO SCORE ANYTIME priced at 3.25 at Bet365
