English Premier
2010-02-21 - Aston Villa vs Burnley
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
Football : England : Premier League
Sunday 21st February 2010 - Kickoff 2pm
Villa entertain Burnley and have a chance to move into 4th with a win. But with a tricky FA Cup replay against Crystal Palace and a massive Carling Cup final against Manchester United looming over the next week, I'm not so sure I'd trust this team to do what's expected.
Aston Villa (7th) Home : 6-5-2 18:8
Aston Villa blew a great chance to beat Manchester United the last time they were at home. Villa faced 10 men for 60 minutes but ended up drawing 1-1.
Aston Villa then travelled to Crystal Palace for a Valentines Day showdown. The romance of the Cup was alive and well that day, as Villa were outplayed for most of the game and had to come from behind twice to snatch a 2-2 draw.
While the result keeps Villa in the competition, it also causes a massive fixture headache for manager Martin O'Neill. Villa had hoped to have a week off following the visit of Burnley. Now they're looking at 3 games in a week.
The possibility of seeing some first team starters rested for this game, or showing signs of fatigue, is very likely, and that is enough to put me off backing Villa here.
Burnley (19th) Away : 0-1-12 8:38
Burnley lie 19th and, like Hull, have not won away from home all season. The Last six road games have all been lost- without scoring a goal.
They are however, more than capable of giving good teams a fight at home. Burnley's home win against Manchester United was testament to this.
With Villa facing a fixture dilemma, Burnley have a perfect opportunity to capitalise and finally go back from an away trip with something.
THe Betting Verdict
If Villa field a weaker side, or their players play with one eye on the upcoming final, Burnley could very well leave with a win.
However, that's a little bit speculative, but I do see Burnley being in this till the end and so my recommended bet is for Burnley to keep it close.
The Statistics :
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Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Burnley (+1.5 goals asian handicap) at 1.75 (Bet365) not to lose by a two+ goal margin.
