NBA Basketball
2011-01-31 - Toronto Raptors at Indiana Pacers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball
Monday 31 January 2011 - Tip-Off 7pm ET
Midnight (British Standard Time)
Preview
Both of these teams have been struggling this season. It is no surprise that the Toronto Raptors (13-35) are having a hard time to adjust without Chris Bosh, but the disappointing performance of the Indiana Pacers (17-27) led to the firing of Head Coach Jim O'Brien after 4 seasons.
The Pacers fired O'Brien last night means Frank Vogel will take charge of the team for this game. O'Brien had led the team to a 104-142 record while in charge and they failed to make the Play Offs in any of those seasons.
They may only be 2 games behind the Charlotte Bobcats in the Eastern Conference for the final Play Off place, but Indiana have been on a run of 8-20 since starting the season 9-7. The defeat to Chicago was their 7th in the last 8 games and the organisation felt they had to make this move to get the team back on track.
It hasn't been much rosier in the garden for the Toronto Raptors that dropped their 11th consecutive game in the loss to Minnesota on Saturday and now look to avoid their longest losing streak in 8 years. The shooting at the Timberwolves was a derisory 33%, the worst effort of the season.
Toronto had been averaging 101 points per game earlier in the season but that has falled to 93 points per game in the 11 game losing run. Andrea Bargnani has been struggling mightily in these game, shooting just 35% from the field in his last 8 games and seeing as much of the Raptors success is based around him, it is no surprise to see Toronto on such a run.
The Raptors are 12-14 this season when Bargani scores 18 points or more, but are 0-16 when he is held to less than 17 points.
Head to Head
Indiana have won 5 straight at home against Toronto, and have been averaging 120 points per game in those wins. Unsurprisingly, with that Offensive output, the team is also 5-0 against the spread in those games.
The favourite is 8-1 against the spread in the series. The home team is 13-3.
Indiana are 11-10-1 against the spread at home this season, Toronto are 12-11-2 on the road.
Indiana are 11-7-2 against the spread when playing on 1 days rest, Toronto are 11-15-1 on the same amount of rest period.
Other Interesting Notes
Indiana are 8-1-2 against the spread when favoured at home by between 5 and 10 points.
They are 4-9-1 against the spread when playing teams from the Eastern Conference.
Toronto are 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games as the underdog.
Prediction
I am going for Toronto with the points tonight but the reasons are mainly because I want to fade Indiana.
The Pacers are on a terrible run of form and had to release their Head Coach yesterday because the team is playing below expectations. They have a losing mentality of late and that is always tough to overcome, and even more so when they are to overcome a number of points.
Toronto lost their last game to Minnesota by double digits but that was the day following an OT loss and they have generally been playing the better teams in the NBA on the road during this losing run. The Raptors have the ability to take advantage of any nervousness in the Indiana team although they have been cold from the field of late.
The main reason for this pick is simply Indiana do not deserve so many points during a run of 7 losses in 8 games. I'll have a go with Toronto.
The Pick :
Indiana Pacers 98-92 Toronto Raptors
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll take the Toronto Raptors + 9 PointsFollow me on Twitter @DavindaAulak- the direct link is below
