English Premier
2011-08-20 - Sunderland vs Newcastle United
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : England : Premiership
Saturday 20th August - Kickoff 12:00pm
Sunderland
Steve Bruce's Sunderland side produced a great second half comeback to stun Liverpool when they came back from a goal down to draw 1-1 at Anfield. It was a fantastic result and a perfect start to what seems a really promising season for this side. This Saturday North East rivals Newcastle visit the Stadium of Light and a win over their neighbours would round off a great opening week of the season for the Mackems.
I won't go overboard with last week's comeback because for long spells of the game Liverpool battered and bombarded them but the credit is due because they only conceded one and withstanding what must have been a very hostile atmosphere shows great character in the side.
There was an element of fortune on two accounts though, which both went in Sunderland's favour, one was Richardson should have seen red when conceding a penalty as he was clearly denying a goalscoring opportunity and then subsequently Liverpool missing a penalty. Still at this level you make your own luck and Sunderland rolled their sleeves up, grafted and took home a solid point.
Sunderland have had an incredibly busy summer signing virtually a whole new side and as a result many players didn't make debuts last week. Those that did play certainly made an impression with Wes Brown in particular having a superb game at centre half. Brown lined up along side Anton Ferdinand and in the second 45 at Anfield the pair looked very solid up against a very good strike force in Carroll and Suarez. On Saturday they face a much less threatening strike force and Sunderland must feel they have an advantage here against a pairing of Ba and Ameobi.
Team news is that Angeleri, Campbell, O’Shea, Meyler and Gordon are all missing with doubts over last years top scorer Gyan. Gyan picked up a knock against Liverpool but early reports suggest he'll be fine and Bruce will lineup with what worked so well at Liverpool last time out.
Predicted Sunderland Lineup:
Mignolet, Bardsley, Ferdinand, Brown, Richardson; Elmohamady, Cattermole, Colback, Larsson; Sessegnon, Gyan.
Newcastle United
Alan Pardew's Newcastle opened their Premiership season with a decent point against title contenders Arsenal in a very feisty game at St James Park. This week the pressure cooker gets raised a few notches as they face bitter rivals Sunderland away at the Stadium of Light.
The Toon Army must be content with last weeks point but also may feel they could of done more. I say that because although Arsenal had lots of the ball and looked the most threatening, once Gervinho saw red for a slap on Barton the Toon Army could of attacked Arsenal more looking for 3 points. However, it was clear that Pardew was happy with a point and didn't change the shape of his team. At home to Arsenal I think he can get away with that just about but the fans won't let him do the same at Sunderland, with a massive away following going to the ground they will demand that they attack and I'm certain that they will.
It must be hard for the boss to just throw men forward or produce goals given he's lost Nolan and Carroll in the summer and Barton looks likely to leave to. Elsewhere full back Enrique as moved on and left a big hole in the left back slot, the team is depleted as not many new names have been signed. Its going to be down to Gutierrez, Barton and new signing Cabaye to produce the goods going forward as they look to feed the toothless attack of Ba and Ameobi.
The good news is that Tiote has signed a new deal and he really is a classy player, dirty, but classy! He gets stuck in and breaks up lots of opposition play whilst being very smart on the ball but he got some 15 odd yellow cards last year so maybe his timing isn't always the best. Add in Barton who triggered off a 20 man brawl last week after man handling Gervinho and we have a feisty midfield here. I'm mentioning this because I feel the cards betting may be worth a small punt on especially given Cattermole is on the other side and his disciplinary record is only marginally better than Tiote's!
Team news is that Ben Arfa is out and doubts remain over Ferguson, Guthrie and Perch. Ben Arfa is a big loss as his skill can unlock defences but he's still a month or so away from recovery. The better news is that the other 3 should be fit and are available for selection if needed, although all 3 are unlikely to be in the first eleven. It's a bit risky but I feel Newcastle will go for it with a 4-4-2 with Ameobi and Ba up top supported by Barton, Tiote, Cabaye and Gutierrez. The back 4 will be as it was last week with Ryan Taylor left back, Simpson right back and the solid middle two of S Taylor and Coluccini.
Predicted Newcastle Lineup:
Krul, Simpson, Coloccini, S Taylor, R Taylor; Barton, Cabaye, Tiote, Gutierrez; S Ameobi, Ba.
The Betting Verdict
In derby games like this it's incredibly hard to pick a winner and this one is no different. If I had to pick I think Sunderland has the edge on the field and the "12th man" home support is a massive plus as well.
But I won't make a fixed odds punt as I feel there's a lot of uncertainty in how either club will react to going a goal up or down. Instead I like the bookings market with Bet365 giving us 1.90 for over 4.5 bookings which looks good to me.
Tiote, Cattermole and Barton on the field at the same time surely between them that's 2 maybe 3 bookings, plus it's a derby and once one gets carded and the tackles fly in it's just a matter of time when 2-3 bookings becomes 6,7 for me.
Good Luck.
The Statistics :
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The Pick :
Sunderland 2-1 Newcastle
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Over 4.5 Bookings @ 1.90 at Bet365
