English Premier
2011-08-20 - Arsenal vs Liverpool
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
Football : English Premier League
Saturday, August 20th, 2011, 12:45PM GMT
PREVIEW
The media are stirring it nicely and you'd think there is a full blown crisis at Arsenal, but there really isn't. Yes, Cesc Fabregas has left and Nasri is on his way, and while that does hurt, the transfer window is not closed yet and I am convinced there is a lot of business yet to be done. But in the short term, there is this game with Liverpool to think about, with the Merseyside outfit coming to London with a lot of new faces.
Last season the two sides played out a ridiculous draw, with two very very late penalties. Eboue is gone, so there will not be any more stupidity from Arsenal. But then the team will also likely miss Jack Wilshere, who at least would have gone some way to help cope with the absences of Cesc and Nasri. That leaves Ramsey as our creative engine, and while he is not as good as the others mentioned, he does have the ability to rise to the occasion, something he did here last season as the Gunners beat eventual champions Manchester United. Frimpong looks set to play alongside him, and I have a feeling he too will come good, it's just a gut feeling.
The offence will miss Gervinho, who is suspended for last weeks farce, and now Song is also out after the FA banned him too. It does look a seriously weakened team but there is still the new captain Robin Van Persie, Arshavin and Theo Walcott, who scored the winner against Udinese to put Arsenal ever so close to yet another season in the Champions League. These men are a big danger, make no mistake. Arsenal can score from all over the pitch, and the absences are inflating Arsenal's price tremendously, so the only value is to take the Gunners at home.
The key here is the defence, which might have looked shaky in midweek against Udinese, but are still perfect, keeping a clean sheet against the Italians but also last week against Newcastle, despite playing 10 on 11. Szczesny looks rock solid, and the partnership of Vermaelen and Koscielny looks a good one. Sagna is reliable, while Jenkinson should also give a good account of himself.
Liverpool have not won here since 2000, but many will have them in their betting slips to do so here. Don't believe the hype. There is a huge chance of a draw but I cannot see them getting the win. Liverpool have spent £100m in 2011 alone, more than Manchester CIty have done with their oil money. However, this side managed just one goal last week at home against Sunderland.
The big absence will be Steven Gerrard, as he is still injured. Defenders Skrtel and Johnson look to be excluded too. The man to keep an eye out for will be £35m man Andy Carroll, who scored here last season while playing for the Toon.
I'm not buying the hype on Liverpool just yet. Their 1-1 at home to Sunderland was much more unimpressive than Arsenals stalemate in Newcastle. Suarez missed a penalty before making up for it, but they could not keep a clean sheet, unlike Arsenal, who did it with a man disadvantage and had very valid appeals for a penalty ignored.
BETTING VERDICT
There is a very good chance of a stalemate, so I will take that on board and suggest a bet on the level ball +0AH and go with Arsenal because of some inside knowledge know only to me.
This wasn't in the papers but, last week I flew back home to London and will take my place at the Emirates Stadium just on the halfway line. And that will make the difference.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Arsenal to avoid defeat
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Arsenal +0AH @ 1.86 (Ladbrokes)
