NCAA FOOTBALL BETTING PREDICTION - LOUISVILLE @ NORTH CAROLINA

NCAA Football

2011-10-08 - Louisville at North Carolina

A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted

LOUISVILLE @ NORTH CAROLINA
American Football : North America : NCAAF
Saturday, October 8th, 2011, 12:00PM US
(5:00PM GMT)

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PREVIEW

The Tar Heels covered the 6.5 spread for us in style last week, winning at East Carolina 35-20. They will now try to improve to 4-0 at home for the first time in 14 years. They have Louisville to get through and the spread is set at 13.5.

Louisville got past Kentucky but then lost 17-10 to Marshall at home last week and it was a dreadful performance, littered with mistakes. The kind of mistakes a bunch of kids make. You see, Louisville has had 23 players make their first appearance at college level this season, so not a lot of experience there.

Inexperience has shown, with the Louisville Cardinals ranking 109th out of 120 in the country in turnover margin, and committing almost 9 penalties per game to rank 110th in that department!

QB Teddy Bridgewater made his 1st start at college level against Marshall, throwing for 221 yards and a touchdown with 2 interceptions but Louisville generated just 60 yards on the ground and 281 total yards, a season low. Regular QB Will Stein sat the game out due to injury.

While Louisville defending decently against Marshall, they fell apart late, allowing Rakeem Cato to throw for 236 yards and 2 touchdowns, the last winning the game in the final 2 minutes. They have allowed just 1 rushing TD and have done a decent job tackling opponents, an area they lead the nation. This is misleading though, as they then commit way too many mistakes to even the score. They are not 2-2 for nothing.

North Carolina rebounded very well from their 35-28 loss to Georgia Tech. They won 35-20 last week against East Carolina with a quick 14-0 lead in the 1st quarter. They have been strong starting games too, as the Tar Heels have not allowed any of their 5 opponents to score a TD in the first 15 minutes.

The Tar Heels are an efficient bunch where it matters. The red-zone play has been great. QB Bryn Renner has led North Carolina to 15 TDs on 18 trips to opponents red-zone. He is complimented and supported with a very good rushing attack, led by Giovani Bernard, who has gone for over 100 yards on the ground in 3 straight games. That rush will be tested by Louisville, but Renner should be able to connect with his main guy, Dwight Jones, who has 514 receiving yards and 6 TDs.

North Carolina will score early to throttle and frustrate the Cardinals and force them to chase it, leading to mistakes. They should be able to pressure their QB into those mistakes too, as his offensive line cannot stand up to the Tar Heels. Too many kids, and they rank a lowly 116th in sacks allowed. No protection for the QB, who could not score last week through the entire 2nd half against a much more inferior Marshall defence.

BETTING VERDICT

In the end, the Louisville offence will stall, and be held to punts and frustrating FGs, and thats when they're not being forced to cough it up. This is a big spread, but North Carolina have it in them to build a lead and then pull away late to leave it lopsided. Take the Tar Heels.

The Pick :