English Premier
2011-12-10 - Swansea City vs Fulham
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : England : Premiership
Saturday 10th December - Kickoff 3:00pm
Swansea City
The Swans like their promotion counterparts QPR and Norwich have made a solid start to their Premiership campaign with Swansea sitting in 15th place.
Whilst 15th is very close to the bottom 3, they only need to finish 17th or higher to retain their Premiership status. With a 4 point gap ahead of Blackburn in 18th, Swansea has a great chance to add to that gap when they host traditionally poor travelers Fulham at the Liberty this weekend.
Rodger's side have been awful away from home but in Wales have a very good record that ranks them 7th overall in the Premiership. 7 games played and just 1 defeat with 3 wins is very handy indeed.
Wins over West Brom (3-0), Stoke (2-0) and Bolton (3-1) have all been in very convincing fashion. The draws have come against Wigan and Sunderland (both 0-0 and both played in August) as well as a 0-0 draw with Villa last time out in a game that didn't get going following the announcement of Gary Speed's death just as the game started.
A recent problem for Swansea has been their lack of firepower with the side being shut out in 7 games this season with 3 of those coming in their last 4 games. What is interesting is that when they have scored in games (7 occasions) the Swans have score at least 2 in 5 of these so once one goes in the others seem to follow.
Swansea Team News :
Team news for Swansea is that Bodde, Rangel, Tate and Allen miss out with doubts over Caulker and Graham.
The loss of Allen is a big blow as he's had a great season but there's plenty of creativity in Sinclair and Dyer but Rodgers will be hoping Graham makes this one as the ex-Watford man leads the scoring for Swansea with 4 goals this season.
Fulham
The West Londoners enter this tough game high on confidence having beaten Liverpool in the Monday Night game this past week. The result also extends their unbeaten run to 3 games so Jol's side will certainly fancy their chances this Saturday knowing a point would be a very good result at the Liberty.
Known for being awful travelers, Fulham has improved this season on that tag. Currently the 12th best travelers in the league, the Cottagers have avoided defeat in 4 of their 7 games this season. They have only won one of these games but still being hard to beat and ticking the points over away from home is very difficult and Jol has to be commended for his work at Fulham.
The sole victory came against Wigan (1-2) thanks to a late Dembele goal back in October. Before then Fulham lost at Wolves (2-0), Newcastle (2-1) and Stoke (2-0) with a 0-0 draw at West Brom their only point. But since that win at the DW, Fulham as drawn at Sunderland (0-0) and Arsenal (1-1) meaning not only are they unbeaten in their last 3 overall but also their last 3 away from home.
Fulham has now played Tottenham, Arsenal, Man City, Liverpool and Newcastle all top 6 sides and has scored against all of them. I think against Swansea Fulham has a great chance to get a goal and whilst I respect the home teams defensive record Fulham has only been shut out once in their last 6 games.
Fulham Team News :
Team news is that Fulham will be without Grygera and Sidwell, whilst Murphy faces a late fitness test after hobbling off on Monday night.
Early reports suggest the skipper will miss this one but Fulham should have Duff back to boost the midfield. I think Fulham will play just one up top with Zamora as Johnson has to do a job out wide without the ball then linking up with the target men when going forward.
The Betting Verdict
Swansea might feel a little under pressure having not scored in their last 2 home games although the Villa game was a hard one to read into given the Gary Speed circumstances.
Fulham are flying high with confidence and must come to his game fully expecting to compete given they have taken points at Wigan, Sunderland and Arsenal in their last 3 away games.
With goals hard to come by for Swansea but also having that very solid defence it's no surprise to see the Unders line at 2.25. I never like taking lines like that so will pass on the overs/unders market.
My bet will be on Swansea +0 in the Asian market. Whilst Fulham has been excellent lately and surprisingly reliable away from home I think Swansea just won't lose this game. Fulham for all there good performances have only actually won once and that was at Wigan.
I feel Jol's men after a tough game with Liverpool would love to consolidate that win with a point here at the Liberty and that might fall into Swansea's hands.
Swansea will go for the win and nothing but the win and if they get the first goal I'd really fancy them to maybe get a second and secure the points.
The fixed odds price did entice me but with Fulham somewhat hard to beat at the moment I'll take comfort knowing a draw is on my side. Home Win.
Good Luck.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Swansea 2-1 Fulham
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Swansea +0 AH at 1.91 at PinnacleSports Sportsbook
