English Premier
2011-12-17 - Newcastle United vs Swansea City
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : England : Premiership
Saturday 17th December - Kickoff 3:00pm
Newcastle United
Following a horrible run of games against the "top clubs" in the league (Chelsea, United, City), the Toon had a chance to return to winning ways at Norwich last weekend.
However, the injury hit Newcastle United side suffered a disappointing 4-2 defeat and have dropped to 7th in the league. Still the season is one of great success and this week they face poor travelers Swansea at St James Park.
Pardew has done a great job with Newcastle and I feel they could well bounce back this weekend. With 3 defeats and a draw in their last 4 overall, the Toon has surrendered 3rd place and it seems unlikely that they will ever get back into the top 4 this season.
However, that doesn't mean they can't finish in the top 6 and that must be the goal for the season. It's hard to asses current form because most sides won't even take a point against City, Chelsea and United but they did get a solid draw at Old Trafford.
It is also worth noting that 2 of the 3 games there are away from home and this game is at home so I expect a better performance from Newcastle.
The home form despite the Toon sitting so high up the table isn't very good. They have the 10th best home record with 4 wins from 7 and just one defeat to Chelsea last time out (0-3). The wins have come against Fulham (2-1), Blackburn (3-1), Wigan (1-0) and Everton (2-1) of which 3 of the 4 rank in the bottom half of the away form this season.
I don't want to play down these wins but the level of opponent hasn't been great, however fortunately for the Toon this week they face the worst travelers in the league when Swansea visit St James'.
Demba Ba is having a great season with 11 goals and has 6 of Newcastle's last 9 league goals. He will be the threat this weekend and if Newcastle are going to score it's very likely he will be on target. The anytime scorer odds of 2.20 seem very generous and I would not begrudge anyone from taking this punt.
Newcastle Team News
Pardew has a host of injury problems with Guthrie, Marveaux, Ranger, Tavernier, S Taylor and Gosling missing out whilst doubts remain over Coloccini, Tioté and Williamson.
Coloccini looked to be out for a while after injury against Chelsea but it's not as bad as once feared. He missed out last week but Pardew is hopeful that the Newcastle player of the season (in my opinion) will start on Saturday.
The Toon were torn apart at Norwich with Perch and Simpson in the middle so the Argentinian's return is crucial and is likely to partner Simpson with Perch missing out.
Ryan Taylor will slot in at right back with Santon left back completing the back four in front of the impressive Krul in goal.
Going forward Ba will be supported by Ben Arfa with a solid midfield of Gutierrez, Obertan, Cabaye and at the moment Tiote who should recover in time for this game.
The side still is very threatening despite the injuries and despite losing a few games the confidence is still high at the camp and I feel the Toon have ideal opponents to bounce back against this weekend.
Swansea City
Following the 2-0 win over Fulham at the Liberty, Swansea has leaped 4 places into 11th place. The newly promoted side now has a 5 point cushion ahead of the drop zone and they remain on course to retain Premiership football for next season.
I have always had a soft spot for Swansea, mainly because Rodgers was a Chelsea man and I really like the way his side plays football. Swansea or "Swanselona" as they were known last season play a fast tempo, passing game and against Fulham at the weekend had some 70% for large spells of the game. On a very good St James pitch if they can settle early they could cause an upset especially if they play as they did at the weekend.
The problem is that awful away form. At home they have the 6th best record in the league but away they are dreadful. Of their total 17 points, only 2 have been achieved away from the Liberty and it doesn't take a rocket scientist to work out that they are winless on their travels.
The 2 draws have come at Wolves (2-2) and Liverpool (0-0) which to be fair to Swansea have come in 2 of their last 3 away games so they are improving. In the most recent away game against Blackburn they conceded inside the opening 20 minutes and crumbled despite scoring 2 goals themselves, eventually losing 4-2.
It's difficult assessing this side because we know they can play some good football but for some reason away from home they have struggled. Firepower on their travels like for so many other sides has been a problem. Swansea has been shut out in 3 of their 7 games this season but have scored at least once in 4 of their last 5 away games. I think Rodger's side has turned a corner and with Newcastle missing a few key players at the back they should get chances on Saturday.
Swansea Team News
Bodde, Rangel and Tate miss out this weekend but it should be the same side that did so well against Fulham this weekend.
Graham will start alone up top with Allen in behind with the threats coming out wide from Sinclair and Dyer. At the back the excellent Vorm will be crucial in terms of keeping out Demba Ba and if Swansea are to take a point or points from this game you can't help but feel Vorm will be called upon to make some key saves.
The Betting Verdict
Newcastle are winless in 4 and really need to end their mini bad run. Swansea on the other hand have picked up draws in 2 of their last 3 away games and come into this one on the back of a big win against Fulham.
With just one clean sheet away from home, it's hard to see Swansea keeping the Toon out all game. Even more so given how prolific Ba is playing and that ignoring the Chelsea and Arsenal games (two higher level opponents) Newcastle has scored 10 goals in 5 home games.
At the other end despite having a full strength back line for the most part, Pardew's side has conceded 8 goals at over a goal a game. The Toon defence has only kept out the hapless Wigan in their last 6 home games with 2 of the last 4 visitors scoring at least 2 goals against Newcastle.
I think we will see goals in this game with both to score priced at 1.70 odd I will take a gamble on Over 2.50 goals instead at a much better price of 1.925.
I prefer overs because I don't think this will be a draw and I fancy both to score. With Newcastle banged up at the back and Swansea's impressive attacking lineup they should be good for at least one goal.
Whilst the Toon will be going all out against the leagues worst travelers looking for all 3 points and if they create half the amount of chances as they did v Chelsea here last time out they should get at least 2 goals.
I can't pick a winner as I really like Swansea's potential, instead I'll go for goals and Over 2.50.
Good Luck
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Newcastle 2-1 Swansea
