Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers Betting pick | 2012-01-01

NFL Football

2012-01-01 - Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers

A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted

DETROIT LIONS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS
American Football : North America : NFL
Sunday, January 1st, 2011, 1:00PM US
(6:00PM GMT)

PREVIEW

The first thing I'm going to do is link here to my preview between these two teams from Thanksgiving, where Detroit were 6 point underdogs. They lost by 12.

Green Bay @ Detroit

As you can see, I went with Detroit to cover, but they lost. It was the right bet though, and I am going to take them here again, this time giving up 3 points.

There is a damn good reason the Lions are favoured here, despite being on the road. It's because Detroit still have something to play for. There is absolutely no reason for the Packers to try too hard here.

The Pack have a first round bye for the playoffs and have secured home field advantage. Their unbeaten run is also done. So why risk your best players here?

Make no mistake, we are very unlikely to see Aaron Rodgers play here. The reason Green Bay have done well is because they have Rodgers throwing that ball like a maniac. Without him, whos going to bail out the 2nd worst defence in the NFL?

In addition to having a poor overall defence, Green Bay are surrendering the 2nd most yards through the air. Attacking that very defence will be Matt Stafford, who has thrown 9 TDs in his last 4 games, with no interceptions, averaging a monster 350 yards per game!

I pointed out that Green Bay have achieved their regular season goals, but Detroit need a win here badly. If they lose here, they are going to have to go play New Orleans in the playoffs. After getting thumped 31-17 by the Saints only a month ago, that is a scenario they want to avoid.

BETTING VERDICT

Brilliant situational bet here for us, as I can see Green Bay getting absolutely hammered as the Packers rest their key players and fail to match Detroit's intensity

Detroit could take this by 2 TDs with ease, so I've no problems suggesting you take them to cover the 3.5 point spread.

The Statistics :

GREEN BAY PACKERS LAST SIX HOME FORM
	DATE	RESULT		OPPOSITION
	2011-12-25	W	35-21	H v Chicago Bears
	2011-12-11	W	46-16	H v Oakland Raiders
	2011-11-20	W	35-26	H v Tampa Bay Buccaneers
	2011-11-14	W	45-7	H v Minnesota Vikings
	2011-10-16	W	24-3	H v St. Louis Rams
	2011-10-02	W	49-23	H v Denver Broncos

DETROIT LIONS LAST SIX AWAY FORM
	DATE	RESULT		OPPOSITION
	2011-12-18	W	27-28	A v Oakland Raiders
	2011-12-04	L	31-17	A v New Orleans Saints
	2011-11-13	L	37-13	A v Chicago Bears
	2011-10-30	W	10-45	A v Denver Broncos
	2011-10-02	W	30-34	A v Dallas Cowboys
	2011-09-25	W	23-26	A v Minnesota Vikings

HEAD TO HEAD GREEN BAY PACKERS v DETROIT LIONS
DATE	HOME	SCORE	AWAY
2010-10-03	Green Bay Packers	28-26	Detroit Lions
2009-10-18	Green Bay Packers	26-0	Detroit Lions
2008-12-28	Green Bay Packers	31-21	Detroit Lions
2007-12-30	Green Bay Packers	34-13	Detroit Lions
2006-12-17	Green Bay Packers	17-9	Detroit Lions
2005-12-11	Green Bay Packers	16-13	Detroit Lions

The Pick :

Detroit Lions -3.5

Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet

Take the Detroit Lions -3.5 @ 1.96 (Pinnacle)

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NFL FOOTBALL BETTING PREDICTION - DETROIT LIONS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers football Betting Pick