NCAA FOOTBALL BETTING PREDICTION - ARKANSAS STATE @ NORTHERN ILLINOIS

NCAA Football

2012-01-08 - Arkansas State at Northern Illinois

A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted

ARKANSAS STATE @ NORTHERN ILLINOIS
American Football : North America : NCAAF : GO DADDY.COM BOWL
Sunday, January 8th, 2012, 9:00PM US
(2:00AM GMT)

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PREVIEW

Arkansas State went on a 9 game winning streak to end the season 10-2, while Northern Illinois won their last 8 to finish 10-3. Now they meet in the Go Daddy.Com Bowl in Mobile Alabama, with the spread set at 1.5 with the Red Wolves favourites.

I like the Northern Illinois Huskies here, and I like them outright. One reason, QB Chandler Harnish. Harnish, who will end his college career with this game, has broken and set 20 new school records in his 4 years, and this year he was at it again.

Harnish, who is a dual threat QB, threw for 2,942 yards at a 63% completion rate, hitting 23 TDs with just 4 interceptions. On the ground, he went for 1,382 yards at a massive 7.5 yards per carry, running in 11 scores! He was the best rusher in the MAC, where his team went 7-1.

On the other team Arkansas too boast a dual threat QB in Ryan Aplin. He may have a few yards more, 3,235 but only 18 TDs and no fewer than 13 interceptions. On the ground, he leads his team too, but only managed 605 yards at 4 yards per carry. But the Sun Belt being what it is, they went 8-0 and are #1 in the division in both total defence and scoring defence.

I guess the difference comes down to the defence, with Arkansas giving up 19.3 per game while Northern Illinois giving up 31. These two have played very different games though, and I feel the grittier nature of Northern Illinois' wins sets them up well here for an outright win.

The Huskies' defense have given up over 500 yards to 5 opponents this year, yet they have managed to win. In the MAC Championship game, tellingly, despite allowing Ohio 372 yards the Huskies restricted them to 20 points while picking off their QB 3 times.

Northern Illinois will be ready for everything Arkansas State will throw at them, and will have a few surprises themselves. Harnish isn't going to end his career with a whimper.

BETTING VERDICT

Arkansas State is in it's 1st Bowl game since 2005 while Northern Illinois are in their 4th straight Bowl game.

I really like Northern Illinois outright here but will settle for the points, even though it is less than the key number of 3. Huskies to win, but let's take them to cover the spread.

The Pick :