Champions League
2012-04-25 - Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
Football : Europe : Champions League
Wednesday, April 25th, 2012, 7:45PM GMT
PREVIEW
Like Barcelona, Real Madrid trail by a goal from their semi final 1st leg, but there is a difference. Mourinho's men scored in Munich. Munich could well score here but it would not put as much pressure on Real Madrid. Mind you, it's not as if Madrid have a problem scoring at home!
This stadium holds no happy memories for Bayern Munich. Just 2 years ago they played the finals at this venue, losing to Mourinho's Inter Milan 2-0. Bayern have lost their last 4 matches played in this stadium, and if you look at Bayern's record in Spain, it is still gloomy.
Bayern Munich have won in Spain this term, beating Villareal, but you would have to go back to 2001 for their previous win on Spanish soil! Yes, Bayern Munich's record away in Spain reads 5 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses! What about Real Madrid's home record against German opposition? 17 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses.
Madrid have won all their Champions League home games, and have won 10 of their last 11 home games in Europe. They warmed up for this in fantastic fashion, winning 2-1 at the Nou Camp to break Barcelonas hearts. Messi has failed to rise to the occasion this past week, unable to score against Chelsea over 2 legs, missing a penalty and kept quiet in El Classico. Ronaldo did not miss his chance though, scoring the winner for Real over the weekend to all but guarantee the title.
Bayern have rested players over the weekend and still won but if you pan back only a few games in their fixture list you will find that Borussia Dortmund blanked and beat them 1-0. Mainz managed to shut them out too, grabbing a 0-0 draw at the Allianz. Of course, most of you will remember how Basel were able to also grab a win over Bayern in Switzerland. Munich might be a good side, but they are vunerable on the road. Had it not been for that last minute strike from Gomez, they would be coming here in a very bad position with a draw, having conceded an away goal.
So, how do we play this? I believe Real Madrid will get through. They are simply the better side, and have shown they can deal with pressure well. They also have the best manager for the job, a man who has been here and done it more than once, including a finals victory over this very team, who will surely have that in their minds. Madrid need to win to nil, or win by a margin of 1 goal and they are through. I don't doubt they will achieve that, but the straight win is priced too low for my liking (although it's a solid single if you don't want to get fancy about things).
Karim Benzema has been directly involved in 12 Champions League goals this season, scoring 7 and adding 5 assists. Most will be looking at Ronaldo in the goalscorer markets but it's not good value as he is always a popular pick. Benzema will not doubt get a whole host of chances and I think it's best to stick with him for a bet.
BETTING VERDICT
This is the 14th time these two will face each other in the Champions League, making it the most frequent fixture in the competition. It's fitting too, because between them they have won 13 European titles, although with 9, Real Madrid have more than double Bayern Munichs titles.
Like I said, I think Madrid will go through. You can take Madrid to win, or take the better odds on Madrid to qualify. I shall keep my bets small though, and also take Benzema to score at any time, which pays very well.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Real Madrid to win and qualify
