English Premier
2012-06-24 - England vs Italy
A Sports Betting Pick by ROzsolt
Football : Euro 2012 QF
Venue: Olympic Stadium, Kyiv
Sunday 24th June – Kickoff time: 21:45 GMT+2
England
England topped group D three points clear of France, but their route to the quarter finals wasn’t as smooth as the table show it.
The Three Lions had lots of moments of weakness during the group stage, but they shared points with France and they came from behind to beat Sweden and eventually picked up all points against Ukraine in a controversial match.
England failed to record a single shot on target during the first half against Ukraine, something that hasn’t happened since a match against Italy in 1980. However, Wayne Rooney was the right man in the right place to take advantage of a huge defensive error and netted the only goal of the match early in the second half.
Roy Hodgson is likely to stick to the flat 4-4-2 formation, which is more like 4-4-1-1 with Rooney coming down often to receive passes, so Carroll or Welbeck will play as a lone striker.
Probable England line-up :
Hart
Johnson, Terry, Lescott, Cole
Milner, Parker, Gerrard, Young
Welbeck, Rooney
Italy
In the end there were no surprises in group C, with both favorites qualifying to the quarter finals, but Croatia gave Spain and Italy a lot to worry about, both giants had to sweat until the very end to be sure of their presence in this stage of the competition.
The Azzurri made an exceptional first match and picked up a hard earned point against Spain, but could only managed the same result against Croatia. Italy were five games without a win at that point before getting their act together and beating the Republic of Ireland in their last match.
The most experienced Italian defender (53 caps), Giorgio Chiellini was forced off during the second half of the match against Ireland and doctors confirmed that he won’t be able to play against England.
It is a big blow for Cesare Prandelli, he may be forced to drop De Rossi to the defense once again, or he could stick to the four man defense with and use Bonucci and Barzagli in the centre.
Probable Italy line-up :
Buffon
Abate, Bonucci, Barzagli, Balzaretti
De Rossi
Marchisio, Pirlo, Motta
Cassano, Balotelli
The Betting Verdict
England have posted four wins and one draw under Roy Hodgson, but the manager face his biggest test yet against Italy in an attempt to reach only their second European Championship semi-final since 1968.
Italy will come into this match on the back of a slightly better head to head record (W9D6L7), but the two sides haven’t met at a final tournament since 1990, so the h2h record might not be too relevant.
England will probably invite Italy to have the initiative, Hodgson’s side is good at soaking up pressure, it remains to be seen if they can be dangerous on counter-attacks.
From what I can see Ashley Young seems to be the biggest threat for Italy, his speed could be decisive on the left flank. The Manchester United winger can provide quality balls to the strikers, let’s just remember his cross against Ukraine which was headed wide by Rooney. His only problem may be that he will be up against Milan’s defender Ignacio Abate.
The two teams are quite balanced if we compare the defensive compartments, both are solid, England could have a slight advantage in front with Rooney back in the squad, but I think the better midfield is Italy’s.
Milner, Parker and Gerrard are all quality players, they work a lot during a match, but Pirlo and Marchisio are superior when it comes to finding solutions in the final third, providing quality balls for the strikers.
From what I’ve seen so far I’ll have to say that Italy made a better impression on me, England will find it hard to create chances against them. I think Italy’s midfield will make the difference and that is why I am backing them to qualify even if that won’t make me the most popular guy on Goonersguide.
The Pick :
England 0-1 Italy
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Italy to qualify at 1.95 at Bet365Confidence: 7/10
