NCAA Football
2013-01-04 - Oklahoma Sooners at Texas A&M Aggies
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football
Friday 4 January 2013 - Kick Off 8pm
1am (British Time)
Preview
When people were ranking the Bowl Games in terms of excitement and intrigue, I honestly think this would have been only behind the National Championship Game between Alabama and Notre Dame. Both of these schools will feel this is the best Bowl Game for them and the one they would have wanted.
The intrigue has been built by the Heisman Trophy winner, Johnny Manziel, who led the Texas A&M Aggies (10-2) to a 6-2 record in the SEC Conference this season despite many tipping the Aggies to struggle with the tough Conference. Texas A&M are also the only team to beat Alabama this season, although losses to the LSU Tigers and Florida Gators prevented them winning the SEC West and a chance to go for the National Championship.
Texas A&M will be meeting the Oklahoma Sooners (10-2), a team that had real National Championship aspirations at the beginning of the season. However, the Sooners lost out on the Big 12 Championship thanks to a defeat to Kansas State, while the other loss came against Notre Dame.
The game is being played at the magnificent Cowboys Stadium in Arlington- funny enough, that is almost exactly the same distance between the two school campuses, although Texas A&M are expected to have the majority of the support inside the stadium.
Where to start with Johnny Football? Manziel became the first Freshman to win the Heisman Trophy this season and his numbers have been incredible all season. Manziel threw 24 touchdown passes this season and only 8 interceptions, while he added 19 touchdowns on the ground.
Manziel can't rest on his laurels in this one as he is coming up against a tough pass Defense that Oklahoma have- the Sooners have allowed less than 200 yards per game through the air on the season, although there have been games they have been torched too so Manziel and Texas A&M should have success through the air.
One element that could be a concern is the Offensive Line which has struggled to protect the Quarter Back fully and that is an area that Oklahoma do have the pass rush to exploit. However, that can be negated if the Aggies decide to run the ball, something they will have a lot of success with.
Manziel has been complemented by Ben Malena and Christine Michael when running the ball and they have helped the Aggies to 235 yards per game on the ground and I fully expect them to gash an Oklahoma Defense that allows almost 200 yards per game on the ground and 4.8 yards per clip.
While there is little doubt that Texas A&M are moving the ball up and down the field, I do feel it would be a mistake to not think that Oklahoma have a chance to do the same thing. Landry Jones leads from Quarter Back with almost 4000 passing yards for the season while he has thrown 29 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions.
Jones is potentially one of the early Quarter Backs taken in the NFL Draft this season and will want to put on a show against the opposition Quarter Back who is getting all of the media attention. The match up isn't a bad one for Jones as Texas A&M have struggled to defend the pass, giving up almost 250 yards per game through the air.
With Oklahoma piling up 340 yards per game through the air, the Sooners should have success. The Offensive Line has held up pretty nicely for Jones this season, although they will be tested by the pass rush generated by the Aggies.
Damien Williams will be given the ball to try and negate the pass rush by establishing an effective ground game for the Sooners. Texas have been strong up front and only allow 3.7 yards per carry, but Oklahoma have been effective on the ground and do pile up the yards in this manner at 4.8 yards per clip.
Establishing a running game will at least open up passing lanes down the field for Landry Jones in what could be a shoot-out.
Head to Head
These two are former Big 12 rivals up until last season and Oklahoma had dominated the recent series by winning 8 of the last 9 in the series.
The Sooners are also 4-1 against the spread in the last 5 games of the series, although the arrival of Johnny Manziel does change the landscape.
Prediction
The real line value of this game has gone as the Oklahoma Sooners were initially given more than a field goal head start in the market.
However, I still think they are being a little under-rated in this contest and I can see Landry Jones having a big game for them before he leaves for the NFL.
Johnny Manziel has been a real revelation, but there is a different sort of pressure on him now and he has been enjoying some of his new found fame and it is possible that his eye is just off the ball in a non-BCS Bowl Game.
Oklahoma do well against Texas A&M and I think Bob Stoops will have devised a game plan that gives them every chance to win this one so I'll take the points.
The Pick :
Texas A&M Aggies 34-35 Oklahoma Sooners
