NBA Basketball
2013-06-18 - San Antonio Spurs at Miami Heat
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
Basketball : North America : NBA
Tuesday, 18th June, 2013, 9:00PM US
(2:00AM GMT)
PREVIEW
Just 2 seasons ago, Miami had to watch Dallas celebrate on their court, and they now have to win the last 2 games of the finals to avoid watching San Antonio do the same. The Spurs are 3-2 ahead in the best of 7 series, and are in Miami to try and win it in 6 games.
So far, Miami have bounced back from defeats very well, with a streak of 11 straight covers ATS following a loss. They also have a good record at home against the Spurs, winning 4 and losing 1. While I think they could bounce back and win here to make it 3-3, the spread is something I worry about.
That spread has been set at 7 points, way too high for my liking. San Antonio just thrashed Miami 114-104, a 10 point beating. So why are we expecting a 17 point swing the other way? Makes no sense. Miami are NOT looking for a cover. They will be happy with just a win and so there is no motivation. However, the case is different for San Antonio.
The Spurs have never lost an NBA finals. They are a perfect 4-0 so far, and with a win either tonight or tomorrow could go 5-0. Should they lose today, the pressure will surely be on as they will be visitors for the final game and off a loss, with momentum on Miami's side. Not good. Tonight, Miami are the ones who will be doubting themselves after a 10 point beating, and San Antonio will pressure them all evening.
BETTING VERDICT
This is a psychological angle I'm playing. San Antonio have Miami right where they want them, and they will go all out for the killer blow today. In a game I would not be surprised at all to see the Spurs winning outright, I'll happily accept a 7 point start!
The Pick :
Miami Heat 103-101 San Antonio Spurs
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take San Antonio Spurs +7 @ 1.91 (Bet365)
