NCAA Football
2006-11-18 - Michigan at Ohio State
A Sports Betting Pick by Gooner
BACKGROUND
In today's day and age of 24-hour sports with championships and overhyped big games that are forgotten as quickly as they're played this is a sporting event that's actually worthy of the attention.
This isn't some game at the end of a fluky, month-long March tournament. This game matters.
To put this into a historical perspective, since 1913 these two have combined for all or part of 72 Big Ten titles, and after this week, it's going to be 73 with the two finishing 1-2 in the conference standings 17 times since 1968.
Everyone else, has combined for 82 Big Ten titles. In other words, the showdown between these two has meant everything to the Big Ten race for almost a century ...
THE BOOKMAKERS
Here is what the experts at StatShark think ...
The home side are a 74% favourite according to the numbers - and are picked to win by as much as 11 points that 4 points above the current spread.
And at top online bookmaker PinnacleSports Michigan opened as a 6.5-point underdog. With record-setting volume early in the week, the line has bobbled between +6.5 & +7.
This is not the first time this year Michigan was an underdog going into a game – they were 5-point dogs to Notre Dame, before routing the Irish 47-21.
OUR VIEW
Ohio State will win if it gets up early.
Ohio State lives on cold, efficient offensive play and letting the other team screw up. Call it conservative, call it a winning formula, but with a veteran leader like Troy Smith, who's hardly going to be rattled, a 10-0 lead could be enough to coast.
A lead would get the crowd into the game and enable the Buckeyes to play a no-frills type of football that wins championships.
But if Michigan can get into the Ohio line and hurry Smith then things can happen; the more Smith forces his passes, the more plays Leon Hall and the talented Wolverine secondary will make.
Michigan almost always ruins Ohio State's dreams. 1996, 1995, 1993, 1977, 1969 ... Michigan has a way of historically screwing things up.
The 2002 game, won by the Buckeyes 14-9 on the way to the national championship, is one recent exception, and this Michigan defense could hold the key to the game.
THE VERDICT
Let's be straight forward - these are two very good sides - and there is only a small chance of a blowout here - and it's very possible that the game could come down to the final posession.
That makes the -5.5 spread seem just a little too big to me, and I'll take the visitors with the points.
The Pick :
Ohio St 21-20 Michigan
BEST BETTING TIP :
Very close call - and if you're a fan of one team or the other then I recommend you ignore our views and bet with your heart ...... it's just as likely to win.
:-)
