Italian Serie A
2008-04-20 - AC Milan vs Reggina
A Sports Betting Pick by Mario
Italy Serie A
Sunday, 20th April 2008 - KO 14:00 GMT
AC Milan Facing European Nightmare
It has been a good week for Silvio Berlusconi.
Newly elected as Italy’s Prime Minister for the third time, the AC Milan president will have been concerned by his club’s weekend defeat at Juventus, which leaves their challenge for fourth spot in real jeopardy.
The top four finishers in Serie A qualify for the Champions League, in which Milan has been an ever-present, reaching the final on three of the previous five years.
As things stand the Rossoneri aren’t even guaranteed to hold fifth spot, which could even put them in danger of missing out on Europe all together. Time is running out for Carlo Ancelotti and the indignity of missing out on the Champions League is a probability rather than a possibility.
In this context Sunday’s home game at the San Siro against Reggina is critical. Carlo Ancelotti’s side must take maximum points, but that isn’t guaranteed given the club’s shaky home form.
Milan have won just five times at the San Siro this season, where the home supporters - spoilt by success - have become impatient.
It would however, be a huge shock were Reggina to get anything from this game. The Amaranto haven’t won a single away game this term, leaving them stuck in the relegation zone, where they also spent most of last term.
On the basis of their terrible road form PinnacleSports.com price the Calabrians underdogs on their spread, posting Reggina 1.870 (+1.5) against AC Milan 2.060 (–1.5).
TEAM NEWS - PROBABLE TEAMS
Milan with be without Daniele Bonera (suspended for two games) and Massimo Ambrosini is also banned. Alexandre Pato is injured as he continues to have an abductor problem.
Milan : Kalac; Cafu, Nesta, Kaladze, Maldini; Gattuso, Pirlo, Gourcuff, Kaka, Seedorf; Inzaghi
The visitors are missing Paraguayan midfielder Jose Montiel through injury and Emmanuel Cascione for disciplinary reasons.
Reggina : Campagnolo; Lanzaro, Cirillo, Aronica; Vigiani, Barreto, Tognozzi, Modesto; Cozza, Brienza, Amoruso
THE VERDICT
I'm not sure what I can say that hasn't been said all season. Milan need to win - Milan should win - but they've only won 5 home games all season.
As such I'd probably prefer to play a small amount on the handicap (because if Milan win then they should cruise) rather than playing the small 1.30 fixed odds price.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
AC Milan 3-1 Reggina
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
I'll try a wee bet on AC MILAN -1.5 goals.
