Tennis
2008-07-02 - Wimbledon - Day 9 vs
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Men's Quarter Finals Day
Roger Federer v Mario Ancic
This match has had people's minds rushing for some time now as Ancic is the last man to have beaten Federer at Wimbledon- but that was a long time ago and Federer has changed as a player since that time.
Federer has so far breezed through the tournament without dropping a set although he was briefly pushed by Hewitt in the last round. I actually think that Hewitt was his toughest test on his road to the Semi Finals and I do think Federer has all the tools in his arsenal to win this match.
Federer's record at Wimbledon is 2nd to none compared to those left in this tournament and his 63 match winning run on grass gives him an aura of invincibility on this surface.
Ancic is enjoying his return to Wimbledon after a 2 year absence and he has had a tough route to this stage. He beat Llodra in the 1st round when the Frenchman retired but has since been forced to go 5 sets with unheralded Philipp Petzschner, had a tough 4 setter with David Ferrer, and just 2 days ago finished an epic 5 setter with Fernando Verdasco. All of this court time may have left him a little fatigued for the real test ahead.
Ancic had reached the QF, 4th round and the SF in his last 3 visits to Wimbledon and he had been tipped as a future champion here. However, on his last visit he was beaten by Roger Federer in straight sets at the same stage of the tournament- a fact that has been rarely mentioned as people concentrate on the 'last man to beat Federer' stat instead.
The 2 players have met 6 times in their careers and it is Federer who has won every game since that defeat in their first match. Federer has won 13 of the last 14 sets these 2 have competed in and beat Ancic at the French Open already this year.
Federer seems to raise his game when he plays 'Super Mario' as all the questions about being the last man to beat him on grass are always asked when these 2 match up. I was concerned that there was potential for 1 set to go to a tie break tomorrow but saw that they have only played 1 tie break in 17 sets competed so I will favour Federer to cover the handicap and win in straights.
FEDERER in 3 sets
Marat Safin v Feliciano Lopez
Safin has been a real revelation in this tournament and it has been a real pleasure to see him performing to the level he should be at. While he has played well, he has also had a little bit of luck needed to get through some tough moments, especially when he met Andreas Seppi in the 3rd round on Friday. Safin has only dropped 2 sets on his way to this QF match.
Safin seems to be inspired in the same way he was at the Australian Open in 2005 and must be salivating at the prospect of playing Roger Federer on Centre Court in the Semi Finals come Friday. However, he must not look beyond a dangerous grass court player in Lopez.
Lopez has quietly moved through the draw with the minimum of fuss until he ran into Marcos Baghdatis in the last round. He showed some real heart and determination to come through in 5 sets after trailing 2-1 and fighting off 3 match points. Lopez has dropped 4 sets so far in this tournament, but must be given a lot of credit for coming through against Baghdatis.
Lopez is a Spaniard who surprisingly does not enjoy clay as his best surface. He actually has a better win-loss record on the faster surfaces like hard courts and grass courts and his best performance at a Grand Slam has come at Wimbledon when he reached the QF in 2005. On that occasion he lost in 3 tight sets to Lleyton Hewitt.
Safin and Lopez have met on 5 occasions and it is Lopez who leads the series 4-1. His big serve gives him enough cheap points to frustrate Safin, and Lopez can always get hot when his winners are quite incredible. The players have met at Wimbledon before when Lopez managed to come through in straight sets in the year that Safin became the Australian Open winner. Lopez won their most recent meeting at the unofficial '5th Grand Slam' in Miami last year in straight sets even though Lopez was ranked over 50 places lower than Safin.
Lopez is a very dangerous player and I am not sure he will be affected by nerves as he has reached this stage before. He showed last year at the US Open that he can get hot when he took the first set off of Roger Federer and this match should be kept close thanks to Lopez's serve and his tactic of approaching the net whenever possible. I love Safin as a player but his mental breakdowns mean I cannot back him at such low odds and I see the value in Lopez. Lopez has all the tactics to frustrate the Russian but must maintain a good serving day.
LOPEZ in 4 sets
Rainer Schuettler v Arnaud Clement
This is probably the least likely Quarter Final I could imagine at the start of Wimbledon, but it is an interesting match between 2 players that are in the Autumn of their careers and are now a game away from their last really big moment in the sun.
Schuettler has surprised me, especially his defeat in 4 sets of Janko Tipsarevic in the last round. The German has also knocked out James Blake in 5 sets at this years tournament but he did not have a good year coming into the event and could be considered fortunate to have been placed in the weakest quarter of the draw.
Schuettler came into this tournament with no momentum after suffering 4 defeats from his last 5 matches and this is by far his best effort at Wimbledon. He failed to play here last year but he had lost 7 of his last 8 matches on grass courts including 2 straight 1st round exits here.
Clement has enjoyed his best success during his career on a grass court and has so far come through his matches with only 2 sets dropped. He has not beaten too many players that I would expect him to lose to until he met Marin Cilic in the last round and impressively dismissed his challenge in straight sets.
Clement has never really had great success at Wimbledon though he has made the 4th round on 3 occasions. He has been knocked out in the 1st round in 2 of his last 3 appearances here and the other was a 2nd round defeat, but he has shown his pedigree on the surface by reaching a SF and a final in the last 2 years at other tournaments.
Schuettler has won the last 3 meetings between the players including a 4 set win at the Australian Open this year. This meeting will be their first one on grass.
This is the closest match to call out of all the Quarter Finals, but I have backed Clement for much of these last 2 weeks and he has not let me down before so I will pick him to win a tight battle.
CLEMENT in 4, maybe 5, sets
Rafael Nadal v Andy Murray
Nadal had an almighty scare in his straight sets victory over Mikhael Youzhny in the last round when he hurt his knee, but after moving gingerly for a while, he recovered his full range of movement by the end of the game. Apart from an early scare against Ernests Gulbis, Nadal has cruised through to this stage for the loss of just 1 set.
Nadal has shown he has the game to perform on this surface as he has reached the last 2 Wimbledon finals. He has also shown his passion for playing on grass as he has mentioned earlier this year that the grass court season should be extended by the ATP. Nadal has won 21 matches in a row, including taking titles in Hamburg, Roland Garros and a grass court title at the Artois Championships and he is probably the toughest player to overcome in tennis at the moment.
Murray showed his fighting spirit after coming back from 2 sets down in his match with Richard Gasquet on Monday night. Gasquet had served for the match in the 3rd set, but after Murray took that set, there was only likely to be 1 winner. Murray has only dropped 1 set before that match with Gasquet in this tournament.
Murray has finally reached his first QF at a Grand Slam here but it will be interesting to see how he handles the nerves. The last time he played at Wimbledon saw him lose in the 4th round to Marcos Baghdatis and this is arguably a tougher match for the Scotsman. He will need to start quicker than he did against Gasquet, because Nadal is unlikely to have the mental breakdown Gasquet did to hand Murray the chance to come back into the match.
The 2 players have met on 3 occasions, and Nadal has won all 3 meetings. They had a close, entertaining match at the Australian Open last year that ended in the 5th set, but the last 2 matches have been straight sets victories for Nadal on an Indoor Hard Court and on a Clay Court.
I think the key to this match is the seriousness of Nadal's injury but I feel he was really nervous after it first happended and seemed to play himself back into his last match and look as good as ever in the third set. Murray will need to serve well and cannot let Nadal have too many looks at 2nd serves because Nadal will dictate the points off those. I think Murray can use the crowd to win a set but I expect Nadal to come through.
NADAL in 4 sets.
BEST BETTING TIP :
Federer - 6.5 gamesLopez win @ 2.4 (Bodog)
Clement win @ 1.9 (Boylesport)
Nadal win 3-1 in sets @ 3.75 (Eurobet)
