International
2009-03-28 - Luxembourg vs Latvia
A Sports Betting Pick by Gooner
Football: International, FIFA World Cup 2010
European (UEFA) Qualifiers
Saturday 28th March 2009 - Kickoff 16:00
Luxembourg (Group 2 - 5th 1-1-2 3:7)
One thing that's held true through the last four campaigns of European qualifying is that Luxembourg are the whipping boys of European football.
Luxembourg had lost 23 straight home qualifiers at home before they finally avoided defeat and picked up a point in a 0-0 draw with Moldova last October.
And the easy beats have also been improving on the road, beating Belarus 1-0 in Euro2008 qualifying, and then stunning Switzerland 2-1 in the opening group match of this campaign.
But the truth is that Luxembourg are a combined 2-1-43 in their last 46 competitive matches over the last four and a half tournaments - and when sides have Luxembourg in the group then they expect to pick up two wins at least.
PREVIOUS GAMES
06/09/08 L 0-3 H v Greece
10/09/08 W 2-1 A v Switzerland
11/10/08 L 1-3 H v Israel
15/10/08 D 0-0 H v Moldova
Latvia (Group 2 - 4th 1-1-2 4-6)
Surprise qualifiers for EURO 2004, the team from the Baltic nation have disappointed in their last two campaigns, finishing fifth on both occasions. They will hope for better in a section also including Moldova and Luxembourg.
Latvia's ability to win away from Riga is surprisingly good, with an 8-1-14 record from the previous 23 games including upset wins at Sweden and Poland.
PREVIOUS GAMES
06/09/08 W 2-1 A v Moldova
10/09/08 L 0-2 H v Greece
11/10/08 L 1-2 A v Switzerland
15/10/08 D 1-1 H v Israel
Head to Head
Luxembourg 3-4 Latvia, 8 September 2004, Luxembourg
These teams traded seven goals in a match which provided the best result of the Germany 2006 qualifying campaign for Luxembourg, who conceded a continent-worst 48 goals.
The home side led 3-2 before an Eric Hoffmann own goal and Andrejs Prohorenjovs effort in the space of three minutes turned the game the way of Latvia.
The Betting Verdict
It was only a few years ago that sides were beig priced at 1.10 to 1.30 to come to Luxembourg and win matches, and given that the home side are 0-1-23 at home that is not surprising.
What is surprising is that Latvia are priced at 4/5 (1.80) or more to get a win here, despite the fact that on a match by match comparison the visitors are obviously 1-2 goals better.
The Pick :
Luxembourg 0-2 Latvia
BEST BETTING TIP :
I;ll take LATVIA to demonstrate the difference between the mid-table sides and the minnows of international football.
