Tennis
2008-07-06 - Wimbledon Mens Open vs
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
The Season So Far
The 2008 ATP Tour has not been following the familiar pattern of the last few seasons as World Number 1 Roger Federer has had a slump in form relative to his previous high standards. He has only won 2 tournaments coming into the event while also a runner up at the last Grand Slam in France. He was a losing semi finalist in the first Grand Slam of the season in Australia and a lot of his problems have stemmed from an illness picked up in December.
Rafael Nadal comes into this tournament in blistering form. He won the French Open without dropping a set and demolished Federer in the final for the loss of 4 games in 3 sets. He has also recently won his first grass court tournament at the Artois Championships and is a serious contender for this tournament.
Novak Djokovic has also made some strong strides this year, winning tournaments on hard courts and clay courts while also reaching the final of the Artois Championships on grass. He became Serbia's first grand slam winner when taking the Australian Open in January and beat Federer without dropping a set in the semi final.
Other solid performers so far this year are Andy Murray and Andy Roddick, both winning some tournaments but not really making an impact at either Grand Slam so far. David Ferrer and Ivo Karlovic won tournaments on grass during the last week while threats exist from wild cards like David Nalbandian and Nikolay Davydenko.
First Quarter
The draw has placed Federer alongside other seeded players David Ferrer, Tomas Berdych, Fernando Gonzalez, Lleyton Hewitt, Fernando Verdasco, Gael Monfils and Michael Llodra. He will also need to be wary of solid grass court players like Robin Soderling and Mario Ancic.
Federer is likely to meet Soderling in the 2nd round, which is always going to be a tough match on this surface but I would expect him to come through to a Quarter Final berth.
The bottom half of this quarter is a lot tougher to predict with Berdych, Ancic, Llodra, Kohlschreiber, Verdasco and Ferrer all contained in it. Even though Ferrer is the highest seeded player amongst those, at least 4 of those players have a higher pedigree on this surface even though Ferrer did win in Holland last week. I would not be surprised at all if we see a Berdych-Ferrer 4th round match at some point in this tournament for the right to play Federer in the QF.
Federer v Berdych/Ferrer QF
Second Quarter
The 2nd quarter may have Novak Djokovic as the highest seeded player but is occupied with some dangerous players. The other seeds are David Nalbandian, Marcos Baghdatis, Stanislas Wawrinka, Ivo Karlovic, Juan Carlos Ferrero, Andreas Seppi and Feliciano Lopez. It also contains the enigma that is Marat Safin, who is scheduled to meet Djokovic early in the tournament, and the potentially dangerous Sam Querrey.
The top half of this quarter is likely going to provide Djokovic as one of the quarter finalists with most likely Wawrinka being his biggest obstacle in round 4.
The bottom half is filled with players with grass court pedigree, as Karlovic (winner of a grass tournament already this Summer), Nalbandian (Wimbledon finalist 2002) and Marcos Baghdatis (former QF and SF appearances here) all fight for a quarter final match up with Djokovic.
I have a feeling if Karlovic can get a bit of momentum going, then it could be him that faces Djokovic, but his fitness is always a concern for these best of 5 set matches. Nalbandian and Baghdatis have both been lacking in form this season but are dangerous players so Karlovic would have to be wary of their threat.
Djokovic v Karlovic QF
Third Quarter
Andy Roddick is the star name in this quarter of the draw and is placed alongside Nikolay Davydenko, James Blake, Paul Henri-Mathieu, Nicolas Almagro, Jarkko Nieminen, Dmitry Tursunov and Ivan Ljubicic. There is another couple of dangerous floaters in this draw in Nicolas Mahut and Marin Cilic that have the potential to cause a surprise or two.
Andy Roddick will be favourite to make one of the Quarter Final berths although he could be tested in the 3rd round by Mahut or Tursunov and in the 4th by James Blake. However Blake has a bad record at Wimbledon in the past and Roddick has grass court victories over both Tursunov and Mahut, so I would be surprised if Roddick did not make the Quarter Finals.
The bottom half of the quarter is a very open competition as all the players are capable of beating each other on their day. We have the potential rematch from the French Open in round 3 between Ljubicic and Davydenko and should have some very good matches come out of this section throughout the rounds.
My tip from here is Marin Cilic to come through, although his fitness is a concern. He has recently beaten potential 3rd round opponent Mathieu on a grass court and has the game to trouble any of his potential opponents on a grass court to make the Quarter Finals.
Andy Roddick v Marin Cilic
Fourth Quarter
This quarter has some interesting star power within it as Rafael Nadal is the highest seeded player followed by Richard Gasquet, Andy Murray, Radek Stepanek, Mikhael Youzhny, Tommy Robredo, Nikolas Kiefer and Gilles Simon. Gasquet was a Semi Finalist here last year while Andy Murray carries the hopes of a nation. Youzhny also pushed Nadal to 5 sets here last year, blowing a 2 set lead, and also holds some wins over Nadal on faster surfaces.
Nadal will face an interesting opponent in round 2, either the big serving John Isner, or the talented Ernests Gulbis. He will also face a tough battle with either Youzhny or Stepanek in round 4.
The other half of this quarter is likely to see a Gasquet-Murray round 4 match with the winner being close to call as both are solid grass court performers.
Nadal v Murray/Gasquet QF
Quarter Finals and beyond
I think the Semi Finals will likely be contested by Djokovic/Federer and Roddick/Nadal. Roddick could be some value to start the tournament with but I feel the value on Nadal has now gone.
Federer must still be backed after his exceptional 59 game winning run on grass and all value on Nadal has disappeared.
Djokovic seems to have a tough run from the 4th round onwards and Karlovic could provide problems, taking Djokovic into deep matches and tiring him out for Federer in the Semi Finals.
Backing Federer now might prove valuable as he odds could shorten rapidly with a good start to this tournament and his only real obstacle to a SF meeting with Djokovic is Soderling in round 2.
I'll start with backing both Roddick and Federer with a view to trade out as the tournament progresses.
BEST BETTING TIP :
Federer outright @ 2.25 ( Boyle Sports)Roddick outright @ 27.06 (Pinnacle)
Roddick to win 3rd quarter @ 1.83 (Sky Bet)
