Tennis
2025-11-02 - Aryna Sabalenka vs Jasmine Paolini
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
Tennis: WTA Finals Group Stage
Sunday 2nd November 2025 - Scheduled 6pm
3pm (British Time)
Preview
The second Group at the WTA Finals gets underway on Sunday and the first match features the US Open Champion Aryna Sabalenka.
The World Number 1 reached the Final at the Australian Open and French Open and was beaten in the Semi Final at Wimbledon, which may have knocked some confidence at the business end of the biggest tournaments. However, winning the US Open is a reminder of the quality of Aryna Sabalenka and she has really enjoyed playing on the hard courts.
Last year she was upset in the Semi Final here in Riyadh, but Aryna Sabalenka continues to show plenty of consistency having reached the Semi Final twice and the Final in each of the last three years in the tournament. However, it cannot be ignored that she has yet to win the WTA Finals and Aryna Sabalenka has not been in action for almost a month, which may give the other three players in this Group real confidence.
First up to take on the challenge of the World Number 1 is Jasmine Paolini who has to be credited for the consistency she has shown on the Tour. Some may have wondered if she could repeat the success of 2024, but the Italian has maintained her form and the World Number 8 will have nothing to lose in this event.
The US Open run will have disappointed Jasmine Paolini, but she has reached the Quarter Final in Beijing and backed that up with consecutive Semi Final runs in Wuhan and Ningbo. Each of those runs were ended by players who will be competing in Riyadh and this has proven to be a tough match up for Paolini, especially on the faster surfaces.
Aryna Sabalenka has won four in a row against Jasmine Paolini since being upset by the latter in Indian Wells on the hard courts, and three of those wins have been on this surface. That includes a straight sets win here in Riyadh last season and Sabalenka was able to find the breaks of serve needed to cover this line when they met in the Group Stage twelve months ago.
You have to expect Jasmine Paolini to do whatever she needs to do in order to keep this one competitive, but ultimately Aryna Sabalenka has been the far superior hard court player over the course of the year.
As long as the World Number 1 is focused enough, she should be able to find the breaks needed to cover this handicap line set.
Prediction
Look for the World Number 1 to record a similar kind of win over Jasmine Paolini as she had in Riyadh last season, which would mean covering this handicap mark.
The Pick :
Aryna Sabalenka 2-0 Jasmine Paolini
