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The Bodog Bark: North American Sports Betting News & Views
Sports Betting Training Camp: Life After Football
They say there are only two seasons in America: Football season, and the offseason. That might be the case for some handicappers, but to paraphrase Vince Lombardi, making money isn’t a sometime thing – it’s an all-time thing. The sports betting marketplace is going to remain open and very busy as the public turns its attention primarily toward basketball, both NBA and college, with the NHL and the European soccer leagues also pulling in their share of action.
Betting on basketball is the simplest transition to make from the NFL. The pointspread is standard betting procedure for both, with moneylines and totals working the same way as they do in football. Here’s how the pointspread looked for Sunday’s big Eastern Conference tilt between the Orlando Magic and Boston Celtics, with Boston at home:
Orlando Magic +4.5
Boston Celtics –4.5
The premise is easy: If the Celtics win by at least five points, they cover the spread. The Magic can lose by as many as four points and still cover. The extra half-point on the betting line keeps the push (a tie against the spread) from coming into play. In this case, Boston won 91-80 and beat the spread. The total for this game was 193.5 points, so the UNDER cashed in.
Many of the sports betting strategies you use on football can apply just as well to basketball – especially if you are a value-conscious handicapper. No matter what the sport, the betting public is prone to undervaluing certain players and teams, and overvaluing others. The small-market San Antonio Spurs (42-8 SU, 30-18-2 ATS) are the NBA’s poster children for value, while the defending champion Los Angeles Lakers (35-16 SU, 22-28-1 ATS) are having trouble meeting their lofty expectations.
Basketball also has a dedicated following of statisticians to help us evaluate players. The biggest names in the industry right now are John Hollinger (pro) and Ken Pomeroy (college), with Pomeroy providing advanced statistics on all 345 teams in Division I, updated online, all for free. These efficiency-based stats and power rankings can help you track down a betting value like the George Mason Patriots of the CAA at 19-5 SU and 17-5 ATS. The Patriots are unranked on the AP and coaches polls, but No. 25 in Division I in efficiency according to Pomeroy.
Because hockey and soccer have much lower scoring than they do in football and basketball, the pointspread isn’t as elegant to use. It also makes it harder to collect relevant stats, especially in soccer. Instead, handicappers have to rely more on judging the teams and players based on their form. The major exception to this rule is with NHL goaltenders – they can be measured with reasonable accuracy by save percentage. Heading into the new week, the Boston Bruins are the most profitable team this year against the Canadian line (aka puck line) at +15.12 units, with the NHL’s top goalie in Tim Thomas (.945 save percentage).
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Most Recent Posts
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- NFL Betting (Bad) News: NFL, NFLPA Cancel Round of Labor Talks
- NCAA Basketball Betting: Every NCAA Tournament Game on Live TV
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We're inching closer to the NBA All-Star Game at Staples Center, where presumably everyone who bought a ticket will actually get to attend, unlike the Super Bowl in Dallas. No doubt everyone in the house will be going ape for Blake Griffin, the impressive rookie for the Los Angeles Clippers and the runaway Slam Dunk contest favorite at –275 on the basketball odds list. We tip off our special NBA version of Stat Check with this Griffin tidbit: He played in the 2007 McDonald's All-American game (and won their dunk contest), 25 years after the first Oklahoma native to do so, the late, great Wayman Tisdale.
1. San Antonio at Philadelphia (Friday, 7:00 p.m. ET)
The Spurs are the most profitable team in the NBA so far at 32-18-2 ATS. That projects to roughly 50-28-4 ATS over the course of the season. None of San Antonio’s teams from this past decade reached 50 wins ATS.
2. L.A. Clippers at Cleveland (Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET)
Griffin had 27 consecutive double-doubles (points and rebounds) from November 20 to January 17. That’s the most of any NBA rookie since 1987, which is the earliest stats Basketball Reference has on record.
3. Phoenix at Utah (Friday, 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
The Suns are melting the NBA lines at 9-4 SU and ATS since January 12, which is also when Vince Carter had his first 20-point game for Phoenix. Carter dumped 23 points that night on his former team, the New Jersey Nets.
4. Charlotte at Atlanta (Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET, NBA-TV)
By covering the spread on Wednesday night against the Indiana Pacers (–4.5), the Hornets improved to 6-10 SU and ATS in their last 16 February games stretching back to last season.
5. New York at New Jersey (Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET, MSG)
Amare Stoudemire (24.1 PER) has the highest Player Efficiency Rating of any Knick since Patrick Ewing (25.8 PER) during the 1989-90 season.
6. Chicago at New Orleans (Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET, COX)
The Hornets are 8-12 SU and 6-12-1 ATS in their last 20 when playing the second game of a back-to-back situation. They’re facing the Magic in Orlando on Friday night.
7. Dallas at Houston (Saturday, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Peja Stojakovic becomes the sixth player on the Dallas roster who didn’t play college basketball in the States. Houston only has two such players: Yao Ming (out for season) and Luis Scola.
8. Miami at Boston (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, ABC)
The OVER is 9-2 in Boston’s last 11 home games. This is happening despite the Celtics playing a slower pace than last year: 93.0 possessions per game, down from 93.8.
9. L.A. Lakers at Orlando (Sunday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
The Lakers are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 road games against teams with winning home records. The Magic are 19-7 (13-13 ATS) at Amway Arena this year.
10. Oklahoma City at Golden State (Sunday, 8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN)
The OVER is 10-3 in Golden State’s last 13 contests against Western Conference opponents. The Warriors are No. 28 in the league in defensive efficiency with 108.2 points allowed per 100 possessions, ahead of only Toronto (109.2) and Cleveland (109.8).
There’s another team sport about to start its season: NASCAR. True, stock car racing is set up for betting on individual drivers, just like tennis and golf. But the drivers are only as good as their equipment, and even with NASCAR switching to a unibody template for all its cars in 2007, it’s still the best crews with the most money who tend to cross the finish line first. Jimmie Johnson of Hendrick Motorsports has won five Sprint Cup championships in a row and will start chasing down No. 6 in Daytona this month.
Bodog Sports is particularly pleased to be on top of the MMA and boxing scene. The UFC has grown by leaps and bounds over the past decade, selling out NBA-sized arenas for their events and swallowing up smaller promotions along the way. Boxing could use some more of that visibility in North America; internationally, though, boxing retains a sizeable following, and we’ve got betting lines for all the major fights happening across the globe. The same goes for horse racing, rugby, cricket, snooker and even Premier League Darts, which kicks off its 2011 season this Thursday at the O2 Arena in London. Defending and five-time champion Phil Taylor is the favorite at 2-1.
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