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The Bodog Bark: North American Sports Betting News & Views
NFL Betting: Super Bowl Stat Check
No single game gets as much attention as the Super Bowl. Hundreds of millions of people will watch the Indianapolis Colts take on the New Orleans Saints in Miami. They'll have had a full two weeks to learn about the two teams in question. If you want to outsmart them and maximize your chances against the football odds, you'll need all the relevant stats and factoids you can get your hands on. Here are 10 goodies that are off the radar screen of the average fan.
The more efficient running team has won 17 of the last 29 Super Bowls.
The advanced efficiency stats show that the better passing team has only won 14 of the last 29 Super Bowls. According to Football Outsiders, New Orleans had the most efficient running game in the NFL this year, while Indianapolis was ranked No. 22.
The average final score at the Super Bowl is 30-15.
We've got a total of 56.5 points up on the NFL odds board for Sunday. Last year's game went well over the total of 46.5 points, as Pittsburgh beat Arizona 27-23. Carolina holds the record for most points by a Super Bowl loser with 29.
Underdogs are 13-30 SU at the Super Bowl.
Bettors will be more familiar with the fact that underdogs are 18-23-2 ATS at the Big Game. The Saints are 6-point puppies (-105) against the pointspread and +175 on the moneyline. The moneyline is a better value if the trends hold up.
First-timers are 4-15 SU and 6-12-1 ATS against Super Bowl veterans
This is the first trip to the Super Bowl for the Saints. The Colts were 6.5-point favorites when they beat the Bears 29-17 four years ago, again in Miami. The Colts (then representing Baltimore) also lost 16-7 to Joe Namath and the Jets at Super Bowl III.
Teams that score over 32 points are 18-0 SU at the Super Bowl.
The Saints were the highest scoring team in the NFL during the regular season at 31.9 points per game. The Colts were third in the AFC at 26 points per game.
The UNDER is 4-2 at the Super Bowl with the total at 50 points or higher.
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Updated: 1 February 2010
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NFL Football Betting: Super Bowl XLIV Early Preview
Here we are again, my friends. It's the mother of all games and the biggest single day in online sports gambling. Super Bowl XLIV is just two Sundays from now, and this isn't your garden-variety Super Bowl, either. The Indianapolis Colts will meet the New Orleans Saints in a battle of the No. 1 seeds from the AFC and NFC. This is the first time two No. 1s have faced each other in 17 years. Let the pregame begin.
The Spread
We opened on Monday with the Colts pegged at -6 (-105), but it didn't take long for the juice to revert to the standard -110 under pressure from Indianapolis supporters. And yes, there are a lot of them. Early consensus reports showed 72 percent of the action on the Colts. The OVER is raking it in as usual with 84 percent support on the total of 56.5 points. This is easily the highest total Indianapolis has seen all season; not so for the Saints, who had a total of 57 during their Divisional Round matchup with the Arizona Cardinals. Both their playoff games have gone OVER.
The Colts
Indianapolis finished the regular season with the best record in the league at 14-2 (10-5-1 ATS). But the Colts could have done better; they punted the last two games by pulling their starters, rather than risk them suffering an injury in pursuit of an undefeated season. Their continued dominance in the playoffs has emboldened bettors enough to move the NFL betting line very close to what we saw in Super Bowl XLIII, when the Pittsburgh Steelers were 6.5-point faves over the lightly regarded Cardinals. Favorites, by the way, are 28-15 SU and 23-18-2 ATS at the Super Bowl.
The Colts bring to the table one of the best passing offenses in the league, led by four-time MVP quarterback Peyton Manning (99.9 passer rating), who will be prominently featured in our NFL Player Props section over the next two weeks. The running game has been less impressive with Joseph Addai (3.8 yards per carry) getting most of the touches, but new coach Jim Caldwell has wisely stuck to a balanced game plan.
The Indianapolis defense has had its ups and downs this year. Without injured safety Bob Sanders in the lineup, the Colts have fallen from No. 10 to No. 16 in defensive efficiency according to Football Outsiders. This has been enough of a problem to force Manning to engineer a number of comeback victories. Seven of the Colts' wins during the regular season were by four points or fewer.
The Saints
New Orleans was likewise on track for an undefeated season, but the Dallas Cowboys (+7.5) put a stop to that in Week 15 with a 24-17 win at the Superdome. The Saints proceeded to lose their last two games to end the regular season at 13-3 (8-8 ATS). Handicappers who picked the right time to jump off the bandwagon were rewarded, as New Orleans started the year 6-0 ATS, then hit the skids at 2-8 ATS. The Saints split the cash in their two postseason games, steamrolling Arizona (+7) before needing overtime to get past the Minnesota Vikings (+4) in the Conference Championship. This is the first Super Bowl in Saints history; first-timers are 8-19 SU and 10-17 ATS at the Big Game.
This is another one of the NFL's most prodigious offenses in a year where offense has been king. Drew Brees was a leading MVP candidate and led the league for the second year in a row with 34 touchdown passes. His 109.6 passer rating was also tops in the NFL. But there's more where that came from. The Saints also have the top-ranked rushing team in the nation with Pierre Thomas (5.4 yards per carry), Mike Bell (3.8 yards), and Reggie Bush (5.6 yards) all making contributions.
New Orleans has made some great strides on defense this year, improving from No. 26 in efficiency to No. 14, but there are still some issues in the Big Easy. The run defense has been knocked for a loop by the injuries to both linebacker Scott Fujita (knee) and his replacement, JoLonn Dunbar (hamstring). Adrian Peterson ventilated the Saints for 122 yards and three touchdowns last Sunday. The team with the greater number of rushing attempts at the Super Bowl has won over 70 percent of the time.
Again, make sure to check in for our bonanza of Super Bowl props for players and
teams. Live sports betting will be on tap for every single play; CBS has the game
starting at 6:25 p.m. Eastern.
Sunday's total of 56.5 is the highest total in Super Bowl history. In second place: Super Bowl XLII, where the Giants and Patriots easily slid UNDER the 54.5-point total in a 17-14 final.
The Favorite-OVER parlay has hit nine of the last 29 Super Bowls.
The second-best parlay is the Underdog-UNDER with eight winners in the last 29 Super Bowls, most recently in that Giants-Patriots classic.
The team with the greater number of sacks at the Super Bowl is 12-2 SU and 9-3-2 ATS in the last 14 qualifying games.
The Cardinals had three sacks to two for the Steelers in last year's game. Arizona lost the championship but earned the cover as 6.5-point puppies. New Orleans owns a 35-34 edge over Indianapolis in sacks this year.
Quarterbacks have won six of the last 11 Super Bowl MVP awards and 17 of the last 28.
Peyton Manning is the 2-3 favorite to win his second SB MVP award. Drew Brees is next on the Super Bowl props list at 9-4. Everyone else is 10-1 or longer.
The NFC has won each of the last 12 Super Bowl coin flips and 15 of the last 17.
Arizona won the toss last year after Pittsburgh incorrectly called tails. The Cardinals chose to defer; Super Bowl XLIII was the first where teams were allowed to do so. Tails has been the right call in nine of the last 12 Super Bowl coin tosses.
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