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Premiership Betting - Matchday 5 Preview & Odds (Sep 20-21)

Premiership betting markets have moved a great deal in a short time. With the new Premier League season just four weeks old, early leaders Chelsea have hardened to firm 2.150* favourites in the outright Premiership betting at PinnacleSports.com, while defending champions, Man Utd – currently 14th – have drifted to 3.500*. After impressive weekend wins both Liverpool and Arsenal have shortened to 7.000* and 6.500* respectively, in early Premiership betting moves but with 34 games to go, it is surely too soon to draw any conclusions.

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Premiership Table Has Unfamiliar Look Ahead of Matchday 5

Though Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal occupy the top three spots in the Premier League after four games, the table still has an unusual look to it. Despite a heavy summer of transfers, Spurs are rock bottom with just one point, while Manchester United are in 14th – having lost at Anfield on Saturday - though have played one game less than everyone else. The Red Devils have another big fixture this weekend when they travel to Stamford Bridge to meet the current favourites in outright Premiership betting.

Chelsea & Man Utd Clash at the Bridge

The Blues are on a roll, having easily dealt with the challenge from the other side of Manchester last weekend, beating City 3-1. The dismissal of John Terry could have been crucial, leaving the England defender suspended for the visit of United, but he has been cleared on appeal. Alex Ferguson is however, without Nemanja Vidic’s after his red card against Liverpool. Fergie could name Cristiano Ronaldo as a substitute after reaching fitness ahead of schedule, but Michael Carrick is out for 6 weeks, and Dimitar Berbatov has a knee problem. Man Utd will want to avoid a successive defeat against serious title rivals but PinnacleSports.com sees them as under-dogs on current form, and Chelsea are of course unbeaten in 84 home games: Chelsea 1.917 (0 & -0.5)*, Manchester United 2.010 (0 & +0.5)* - a market priced to less than 105%.

Go to PinnacleSports.com for a host of Premiership betting specials including two way corners, and yellow card betting markets for all the weekend fixtures, priced to less than 102%, while on Friday’s from 2pm CET, Premiership Asian Handicaps are priced as low as 101%.

To add even further excitement to betting on the Premiership, PinnacleSports.com’s low margin pricing has also been applied to the new live soccer betting markets for the Premier League, with 1.95/1.95 style live Asian Handicap pricing and in-running Total goals betting.

Best Premiership Odds at PinnacleSports.com
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Serie A Betting - Matchday 3 Preview & Odds (Sep 20-21)

Serie A betting has thrown up some surprising results in the two weeks of results to date, giving the table an unusual look. Roma and AC Milan sit in the bottom four, both without a win, while Lazio and Atlanta have maximum points. This situation is likely to change in time but the outright Serie A betting at PinnaceSports.com has reflected these early trends with Inter Milan solid favourites at 2.090*, Juventus moving into 4.000*, while AC Milan and Roma have both drifted after uncertain starts, to 5.500* and 9.500* respectively. Get 60% better Serie A betting odds exclusively at PinnacleSports.com.

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Roma & Milan Facing Mini Crises

Roma the reigning Coppa Italia Champions, and runners-up in Serie A for the past the three seasons, have made a shambolic start to the new season. Luciano Spalletti’sside have taken one point from two league games, and lost at home on matchday one of the Champions League group phase to Romanian champions, CFR, making their debut in the competition. There were signs in pre-season that all was not well with the Giallorossi, evident in a 5-0 friendly defeat at White Hart Lane, so the pressure will be on Roma to take maximum points at home to Reggina on Saturday. Despite their poor start, PinnacleSports.com price Spalletti’s team as favourites on the Serie A Asian Handicap betting: Roma 2.160 (-1.5)*, Reggina 1.794 (+1.5)* - a market priced to less than 102%.

In common with Roma, AC Milan have made an awful start to the new campaign, taking nothing from their opening two league games, despite the presence of former World Player of the Year, Ronaldinho. The club kept faith with Carlo Ancellotti despite his failure to qualify for the Champions League, but their patience may wear thin if the losing run continues at home to Lazio on Sunday. A showdown meeting was held this week, which has draw a line in the sand. The Sky Blues have taken maximum points from their games, so will be buzzing, and all too aware that Milan were vulnerable at the San Siro last season, failing to win in their first seven games. Nevertheless PinnacleSports.com make AC Milan favourites for Sunday’s game: AC Milan 2.070 (-0.5 & -1)*, Lazio 1.862 (+0.5 & +1)*.

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1.96/1.96 style Asian Handicap pricing (c.102%) on the major European Football Leagues gives gamblers up to 60% better Serie A online betting odds. PinnacleSports.com offers commission-free fixed odds online sports betting with exchange style pricing, as well as the web’s highest guaranteed liquidity and fastest payouts.

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One look at last season’s English Premier League table will tell you that home teams scored more goals than visiting teams (552 v 349). In fact, ever since the English Football Association formed the first ever football league in 1888, it has always been that way. QED – home teams enjoy a natural advantage over away teams.

This might be stating the obvious, but many bettors fail to understand the importance of Home Field Advantage (HFA). At PinnacleSports.com we use HFA as the basis for much of our odds setting on football. The key to remember is that when a bookmaker sets a line, they are not necessarily trying to predict who will win the game, but rather find the point where they can generate balanced action. The challenge that bettors face is to be more accurate than the bookmaker in estimating the strength of HFA and play to win.

In American Football, there is a 3 point standard value for HFA, based on historical data on home points scored versus away points scored. This figure naturally masks deviations based on team and seasonality, so in pricing future games, odds makers will use the standard 3-point HFA as a guide, but adjust it for game specific factors.

The NFL lends itself easily to HFA measurements because given the ‘closed’ status of the league (absence of relegation) and draft system, there is a fairly level playing field. Such notions do not apply to English football, so despite over a century of raw data, you can be forgiven for not knowing the standard HFA for the English top flight, as no accepted figure exists. This presents opportunities for astute players.

The main reason for this is the level of polarisation that the open league system (based on promotion & relegation) has created. This is particularly important since the start of the Premier League in 1992, when the financial rewards of success have dramatically increased the gap between the haves and have nots.

The Premier League is currently contested by twenty clubs but there have been a total of forty clubs that have played in the top flight since its inception in 1992. However, only seven teams have contested all 15 seasons. Looking at the HFA figures for those sides should provide meaningfully consistent data.

The stats are freely available, and by copying the required data into an Excel spreadsheet, it’s a fairly simple task to arrive at a basic figure for HFA using the following calculation:

The theory behind HFA is to find value for example by either backing the home team when the Asian handicap is less than their HFA, or betting the visiting team when the Asian handicap exceeds the HFA.

Dedicated players may seek to find an even greater edge by refining their calculations to see what influence any number of factors might have on HFA for a particular team, division or domestic league. They might apply a filter so that only home games during a specific period are considered such as over the festive season, or against teams with a higher/lower league position, or teams newly promoted to the Premiership etc. etc. The possibilities are endless.

It is with these various refinements in subjective areas that astute players stay one step ahead of the bookmaker to reap maximum returns. Additional known influences to consider include:

Referees & Home Crowds
Harvard research assistant, Ryan Boyko studied 5,000 Premiership games from 1992 to 2006, to discern any officiating bias and the influence of home crowds. The data suggested that for every additional 10,000 people attending, home team advantage increased by 0.1 goals. Additionally, his study proved what many football fans already suspect, that home teams are likely to receive more penalties, but crucially, this is more likely with inexperienced referees. So building referee profiles can clearly be a very telling refinement for HFA figures.

Seasonality & Games of Special Significance
HFA is anecdotally shown to increase for important games, including local Derbies, which logically attract high attendances and increased fervour. Look for anything that might raise the level of intensity such as emotive local stories, important club anniversaries or memorials for players/managers/significant events.

Breaking News & Injuries
Paying attention to team news is critically important. This process should continue right up until kick-off, with a surprising number of players injured during warm-up.

Recent Form
Confidence breeds success, so it is advisable to build in a value for recent form, though it is open for debate as to what constitutes a significant winning or losing run.

New Stadiums
A degree of home field advantage is derived from familiarity. That element is greatly devalued when home teams are playing in a new stadium as Arsenal did last season at the Emirates Stadium. Judging the ‘bedding in’ period is an important judgement to make.

Further areas to consider would include: Weather and Managerial Uncertainty
Analysing HFA in conjunction with lateral thinking can give bettors an edge, but only in conjunction with low commission betting, at sportsbooks such as PinnacleSports.

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Analysing Home Field Advantage in the English Premier League

English Premier League Betting

Italian Serie A Betting