So, you want to make a profit, eh?
If you're reading this then hopefully you've come to grips with the basics of football punting. You've started taking a close look at your betting and you've noticed that you like it better when you are winning.
The suggestions here assume that you already do the following things :
· Have access to football statistics and team form
· Follow at least one football league closely
· Keep a betting log of all bets - with details for a least 50 bets
Let's see if I can suggest a few ways of looking at the bets differently. NOTE : This section simply considers match result betting. If you want to talk a look at HT/FT, goal betting, goal scorer betting, etc. then you need to visit the GoonersGuide.com Special Betting Tips.
What is value? Put simply it is when you think that the bookmakers odds are set at a level which the reward outweighs the risk. To check whether a bet is value all you have to do is :
-- Estimate the winning chance of a side
-- Get the best decimal price (the maths is easier) for the bet
-- Multiply the % chance of a win against the odds
Any result of 1.00 or greater means that you have value!
Value example #1
So if you think a certain team playing at home has a 50% chance of winning, then you will only bet on it if the price available is better than 2.00. Because 50% = 0.50 * 2.00 = 1.00 (or fair value) anything less than this means that over the course of the season you WILL lose money on the bet.
So do not bet on a team just because you think they will win - unless you've also considered their chance of winning - and the price offered - and decided that mathematically it is value.
Value example #2
If we played a simple game - and I let you toss a 6-sided dice - what would the fair price be for any 1 side coming up ?
Each side has 1/6 chance (or 16%) so you can work out fair value by dividing 1 / 0.16 (16%) and getting the number 6.00 (decimal odds) or 5/1 (fractional odds). So if I offer you a bet at a price of better than 6.00 you should take it - if it's less than that (say 5.00) you should not take it - even though the price of 5.00 sounds high - it is not value.
Always TRY to calculate YOUR winning chance of a bet
Of course sometimes you'll see the odds being offered first but do NOT place the bet until you've checked the stats and made sure that you can statistically work out the winning chance.
Calculating a winning chance for a football team is difficult and you will have to work out your own methods - but I'll suggest a few basic methods to consider.
It's generally understood that about half of all games end in home wins - another quarter end in draws - and the rest are away wins. This is true across nearly all professional leagues. Home advantage is real.
A common method of forecasting is to look at the previous match results during the current season - and perhaps last season too - in order to estimate chances of a result.
If you did this for the 2004-05 English Premier League then you'd see some eye opening results:
-- Champions Chelsea still only won 73% of home games (14/19)
-- Bottom placed Southampton only lost 68% of away games (13/19)
-- Only the top 5 sides won more than half their home games
-- Middle to Lower sides often draw as many games as any other result
By cross referencing the "home form" of the hosts with the "away form" of the visiting team we can calculate a rough guide to the game - for example :
-- Assume a match between two sides
-- Host home form is 7-2-1 and visitors away form is 1-3-6
What would the raw chance of a result be?
HOME = 7 + 6 = 13 of 20 total games = 65%
DRAW = 2 + 3 = 5 of 20 totals games = 25%
AWAY = 1 + 1 = 2 or 20 total games = 10%
So fair prices might be 1.53 - 4.00 -10.00
Of course it's not that easy. If it was that simple to pick results then bookies would be going out of business as punters would be skilfully choosing the best offers and always winning. So what else can affect the chances?
Recent Form
Another popular method looks at recent form rather than season long form. The idea is that a team that's been winning recently builds confidence and perhaps has also recovered from injury woes ... while a losing side lacks the fight required to get a result.
This is somewhat true - but other patterns emerge - especially from mid-table sides who by definition are a bit inconsistent. So if a average side is on a good or bad run then it is no surprise (to me at least) to see them suddenly turn it around.
Injuries / Absences
Injuries and absences can also have a big impact on a side. But some players are more important than others and generally defence matters more than attack.
I find that goalkeepers, and central defenders and players are key to winning. If one of these is missing then it's a big warning. Also important is the team captain. A missing captain is a sign of a leaderless side.
Derby Games
Another complicating factor is the local derby game. Matches between fierce rivals usually are hard fought affairs simply because both sets of fans demand the best from their players against "the enemy". Arsenal vs Spurs games are always tight, fiery affairs no matter what the recent form ...
Generally the effect is that the natural home advantage is actually negated to a large degree. I might not make sense but it's true - the visiting team is motivated and seems to overcome a hostile crowd easier if it's a natural 'rival'.
Note that in recent years with television, online, nationwide and global media coverage it seems that "rivals" are no longer restricted to local sides so matches like Arsenal v Man Utd and Real Madrid v Barcelona also take on this dimension.
Recent Events
There can also be tactical reasons to bet on or oppose a side. Perhaps the team has just played in Europe and had a long trip, or is threatened by relegation and so "rests" players for a cup fixture.
Maybe the news is of a manager being sacked - a star player being dropped - a club under financial pressure - or simply the players being booed at the end of each game.
Will it motivate the side or demoralise the side? All of these events could and should be considered.
In a nutshell - you can't do it ALL in a spreadsheet - as it is difficult to quantify all the factors listed above. But a spreadsheet or form guide and some calculations on notepaper will provide you with some basic numbers, that you can then modify based on the other issues.
Take a look at your betting log. Are the sides that you are tipping to win 80% of the time actually winning 80%? Are you always losing on away teams or long shot bets? Your personal betting log will show you where to improve. It should be possible to develop a method that gets within 5%-10% of a reasonable estimate.
NOTE : This section simply considers match result betting. If you want to talk a look at HT/FT, goal betting, goal scorer betting (etc) then you need to visit the GoonersGuide.com Special Betting Tips section.
Is there anything else?
Well - there is one way - one simple way - where I can guarantee that 90% of punters can win 10% more or maybe even 15% more than they do right now.
It's a simple thing - an obvious thing - but many punters ignore it and simply say that they cannot be bothered with it. (I'll never understand that - can't be bothered winning?!!)
So take a look at your betting log. Could you have benefited from 10% more in winnings? Of course you could have - if you want to know how - then you'll have to read my Betting Money Management section.
Good luck with your punting!
