Mississippi State at Memphis Tigers Betting pick | 2011-09-01

NCAA Football

2011-09-01 - Mississippi State at Memphis Tigers

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Mississippi State Bulldogs @ Memphis Tigers
United States: College Football
Thursday 1 September 2011 - Kick Off 8pm ET
1am (British Standard Time)

Preview

I will be completely honest- I have missed American Football and I was resigning myself to thinking we would only have the College game this year when the NFL decided the money they were making was not enough to prevent a work stoppage. Thankfully the NFL is going to start this time next week, but first we have Week 1 from the NCAA.

Mississippi State are ranked in the top 20 during pre-season but will need to show why that is the case as they travel to face the Memphis Tigers, a team that really struggled at the back end of last season.

The Bulldogs have been keeping their cards close to their chest coming into the new season, with topics such as injuries and depth chart not acceptable when speaking with Head Coach Dan Mullen.

There is a quiet confidence that the Bulldogs can build on last season when they finished 9-4 and they actually return 15 starters from that team. Chris Relf is back as the Quarter Back and Vick Ballard also returns after rushing for 19 TDs last season. The Secondary will also see all 4 starters return.

While injuries have not been allowed to be discussed, Mullen did say Chris Hughes (LB) is doubtful although he would not go to any length to say what the issue is. Ricco Sanders (WR) is very unlikely to be ready to go after knee surgery.

There is also going to be some big responsibility on the shoulders of James Carmon, a Senior who will be making his first start on the Offensive Line as Left Tackle. His job will be to make sure Relf's blind side is protected during the game.

While Mississippi State will be introducing a couple of new pieces to their team, they will have a chance to settle against Memphis if they play anything like last season when they finished with a 1-11 record.

Memphis have also not brought back as many starters from last season and that means they could be in line for a long night.

One player who is returning is Marcus Rucker (WR) who caught a team high 8 TDs last season. Rucker was expected to miss this game, but has been upgraded to probable during the week and should be good to go. Jerrell Rhodes, the leading rusher on the team last season, is also probable for the game.

The Tigers will likely begin with a new QB in the form of Skylar Jones who was transferred from Wake Forest. Jones is the only QB on the depth chart with any playing experience and I would be surprised if he is not given the keys to the Offense in the opener.

Head to Head

Mississippi State have won the last 11 games between the schools, although they met for the first time last season since 2003.

The Bulldogs won by 42 points at home against Memphis in that game.

Mississippi State are 5-0 against the spread in the last 5 meetings between the schools.

The favourite improved to 4-1 in the last 5 games last season.

Other Interesting Notes

Memphis are 1-4 in their last 5 home games against the spread where they are considered the underdog by more than 10.5 points.

They are 1-8 against the spread in their last 9 games against non-Conference opponents.

They are 6-15-1 against the spread in their last 22 games as the underdog.

Mississippi State are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the road favourite.

However, the Bulldogs are just 1-7 against the spread in their last 8 games being favoured by more than 10.5 points.

Prediction

The spread has really been interesting me all week as it has now moved by another field goal in favour of Mississippi State.

While it has been interesting to see the move, I am still ready to back the road team that has much more experience than their opponents and have returned some key components of the team that was so successful last season.

Dan Mullen may be hiding his plans and injuries and even who will start for his team, but will be proud that they are ranked at this stage for the first time since 2001. I expect he will have the Bulldogs fired up and ready to go in this game and I think they will be able to cover the spread in the final Quarter of the game.

Memphis have a QB that has only recently moved to the system and one that has not had as much experience as a starter as a team that finished 1-11 will need.

The fact that Marcus Rucker and Jerrell Rhodes are available will help the team, but the Tigers were blown out last season when they faced the Bulldogs and I expect some more of the same on Thursday night.