Spreadsheet Index for GoonersGuide Football Betting Analysis


		TEAMS		ML	RATINGS				RESULT %			DV PICKS			SHEET	HOME ODDS		DRAW ODDS		AWAY ODDS
DATE	GAME_ID	HOME	AWAY	PK	M	H	A	OBS	HW	D	AW	V1	V2	V3	STATS	$	Value	$	Value	$	Value
2025-11-03	6010376	Real_Oviedo	Osasuna		-52	923	976	33	27	30	42				More	3.00	81%	3.10	93%	2.55	107%
2025-11-03	1010022	Sunderland	Everton		-35	989	1024	139	36	24	40				More	2.88	104%	3.10	74%	2.63	105%
2025-11-02	6010375	Real_Betis	Mallorca		59	1043	984	238	50	27	23	=			More	1.62	81%	4.20	113%	5.25	121%
2025-11-02	6010374	Barcelona	Elche	+	201	1130	929	125	83	9	8				More	1.22	101%	7.00	63%	13.00	104%
2025-11-02	6010373	Alaves	Espanyol		42	1002	960	436	53	24	22				More	2.40	127%	3.00	72%	3.30	73%
2025-11-02	6010372	Levante	Celta_Vigo		-24	979	1003	227	37	24	39				More	2.88	107%	3.40	82%	2.45	96%
2025-11-02	3008045	Wolfsburg	Hoffenheim		-70	954	1024	95	24	34	42	=			More	2.75	66%	3.80	129%	2.38	100%
2025-11-02	3008044	Cologne	Hamburg		39	971	932	194	43	22	36				More	2.10	90%	3.75	83%	3.30	119%
2025-11-02	2009648	Lazio	Cagliari	+	86	1053	967	218	60	24	17	=			More	1.57	94%	4.00	96%	7.00	119%
2025-11-02	2009647	Sassuolo	Genoa		-21	983	1004	155	32	31	37				More	2.45	78%	3.10	96%	3.25	120%
2025-11-02	2009646	Milan_AC	Roma_AS	=	8	1077	1069	42	33	31	36				More	2.10	69%	3.25	101%	3.90	140%
2025-11-02	2009645	Parma	Bologna		-12	999	1011	123	34	31	35				More	4.20	143%	3.25	101%	2.05	72%
2025-11-02	2009644	Torino	Pisa		66	1023	958	231	45	34	21			=	More	1.95	88%	3.25	111%	4.33	91%
2025-11-02	2009643	Fiorentina	Lecce		78	1044	966	188	53	29	19		=	=	More	1.62	86%	3.90	113%	5.75	109%
2025-11-02	2009642	Verona	Inter_Milan	-	-193	946	1139	65	6	22	72				More	7.50	45%	4.75	105%	1.42	102%
2025-11-02	1010021	Man_City	Bournemouth	+	149	1166	1017	199	68	21	11	=			More	1.50	102%	4.50	95%	6.00	66%
2025-11-02	1010020	West_Ham	Newcastle		-73	939	1013	71	32	25	42		+	+	More	5.00	160%	4.00	100%	1.65	69%
2025-11-01	6010371	Real_Madrid	Valencia	+	187	1146	959	179	77	14	9				More	1.17	90%	8.00	112%	15.00	135%
2025-11-01	6010370	Real_Sociedad	Bilbao		-36	1000	1036	138	35	22	43				More	2.75	96%	3.00	66%	2.90	125%
2025-11-01	6010369	Atletico_Madrid	Sevilla	+	124	1126	1002	114	70	16	14				More	1.33	93%	5.25	84%	9.00	126%
2025-11-01	6010368	Villarreal	Vallecano		65	1093	1028	38	58	26	16	=			More	1.70	99%	4.00	104%	5.00	80%
2025-11-01	3008043	Bayern_Munich	Leverkusen	+	136	1234	1097	6	50	17	33				More	1.22	61%	6.50	111%	11.00	363%
2025-11-01	3008042	Union_Berlin	Freiburg		18	1007	990	237	40	27	34				More	2.50	100%	3.40	92%	2.80	95%
2025-11-01	3008041	St_Pauli	Monchengladbach		-29	954	984	144	38	22	41		-		More	2.10	80%	3.50	77%	3.40	139%
2025-11-01	3008040	RB_Leipzig	Stuttgart	+	66	1107	1041	29	55	24	21			+	More	1.95	107%	4.00	96%	3.50	74%
2025-11-01	3008039	Mainz	Bremen		-30	1004	1034	145	30	18	52		-	-	More	2.00	60%	3.90	70%	3.50	182%
2025-11-01	3008038	Heidenheim	Eintracht_F	-	-108	930	1038	32	16	31	53	=			More	3.60	58%	4.00	124%	1.91	101%
2025-11-01	2009641	Cremonese	Juventus		-51	977	1028	82	22	34	44				More	7.00	154%	4.33	147%	1.50	66%
2025-11-01	2009640	Napoli	Como	+	97	1112	1015	53	58	21	21				More	1.91	111%	3.30	69%	4.75	100%
2025-11-01	2009639	Udinese	Atalanta	-	-168	968	1136	100	10	21	69				More	4.60	46%	3.75	79%	1.80	124%
2025-11-01	1010019	Liverpool	Aston_Villa	+	119	1134	1016	203	68	21	11	=			More	1.60	109%	4.50	95%	5.00	55%
2025-11-01	1010018	Tottenham	Chelsea		-59	997	1057	131	19	31	50				More	2.70	51%	3.70	115%	2.40	120%
2025-11-01	1010017	Nottingham	Man_Utd		4	991	987	287	42	30	28	+			More	3.25	137%	3.75	113%	2.05	57%
2025-11-01	1010016	Fulham	Wolves		41	1005	965	332	43	29	28			-	More	1.85	80%	3.50	102%	4.50	126%
2025-11-01	1010015	Crystal_Palace	Brentford		16	1034	1018	124	45	23	31				More	1.95	88%	3.60	83%	4.00	124%
2025-11-01	1010014	Burnley	Arsenal	-	-175	940	1116	89	16	11	73	+	+		More	10.00	160%	6.00	66%	1.29	94%
2025-11-01	1010013	Brighton	Leeds	+	123	1046	923	241	65	24	11				More	1.85	120%	3.75	90%	4.20	46%

A BASIC KEY FOR THE SPREADSHEET : (in response to a few queries on Twitter and Facebook)

RATINGS : These are the ratings for the two teams adjusted for the venue. H = Home Team, A = Away Team, M = Margin between the two sides.
NOTES : A one goal margin win (on average) is 100 points - but given randomness, poisson distribution and standard devation - even 50-75 points is a strong indicator.

PICKS : There are two pick types ...
ML PK = Most likely pick (the most likely result). + is a home win, = is a draw, - is an away win. These are usually obvious to most punters.
DV PK = Discovered Value Pick. + is a home win, = is a draw, - is an away win. These consider the potential risk/reward of odds and potential profits.

OTHER STUFF : Some other notes about the sheet.
OBS : The number of Observations (or previous games) that have helped to shape the result %. The more obs, the better accuracy. 100+ obs is good data.
RESULT % : HW = Home Win, D = Draw. AW = Away Win. These are percentage estimates based on results from previous games with similar ratings.
VAL : This is the potential value of the decimal odds, when considering the expected result %. Eg. 2.00 * 50% = 100% value which is fair value

NOTES : Obvious winners and big favourites are very rarely "good value".
The bookies know they're likely to win too and usually offer a poor price and taking these bets usually means a losing season overall. Always look for value. (100% or better)

If there is anything else you need to know - drop me a line on the GoonersGuide Facebook Page.

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