Spreadsheet Index for GoonersGuide Football Betting Analysis


		TEAMS		ML	RATINGS				RESULT %			DV PICKS			SHEET	HOME ODDS		DRAW ODDS		AWAY ODDS
DATE	GAME_ID	HOME	AWAY	PK	M	H	A	OBS	HW	D	AW	V1	V2	V3	STATS	$	Value	$	Value	$	Value
2026-11-04	4004338	Viking	Sabah_Baku		57	882	825	84	48	29	24		=		More	1.62	78%	4.33	126%	5.50	132%
2026-11-04	4004337	Slavia_Prague	Arsenal	-	-229	858	1087	13	15	23	62				More	9.50	143%	6.50	150%	1.25	78%
2026-11-04	4004336	RB_Leipzig	Man_City		-45	982	1027	64	22	30	48				More	6.50	143%	4.70	141%	1.50	72%
2026-11-04	4004335	PSV_Eindhoven	Club_Brugge		72	980	908	121	57	22	21	+			More	2.10	120%	4.30	95%	2.99	63%
2026-11-04	4004334	Lens	Como		19	957	938	165	48	22	30				More	2.70	130%	3.80	84%	2.45	74%
2026-11-04	4004333	Porto	Napoli		47	971	924	139	53	23	24	+			More	2.10	111%	3.50	81%	3.50	84%
2026-11-04	4004332	Dortmund	Real_Betis	+	97	1059	962	68	72	13	15		+	+	More	1.75	126%	4.20	55%	4.10	62%
2026-11-04	4004331	Fenerbahce	Liverpool	-	-169	914	1083	18	28	11	61			-	More	3.80	106%	3.80	42%	1.83	112%
2026-11-04	4004330	AEK_Athens	Real_Madrid	-	-173	882	1054	25	20	4	76				More	8.20	164%	6.00	24%	1.33	101%
2026-11-03	4004329	Villarreal	Paris_SG	-	-188	937	1125	8	50	0	50				More	4.50	225%	4.50	0%	1.63	82%
2026-11-03	4004328	Manchester_Utd	Roma_AS		80	985	905	122	57	25	18				More	1.91	109%	3.90	98%	3.65	66%
2026-11-03	4004327	Linz_LASK	Slovan_Bratislava		39	830	791	40	58	30	13		=		More	1.50	87%	4.80	144%	6.30	82%
2026-11-03	4004326	Feyenoord	Inter_Milan	-	-114	929	1043	40	15	28	58				More	4.50	68%	4.30	120%	1.66	96%
2026-11-03	4004325	Bodo-Glimt	Lille		46	963	917	140	52	23	25				More	2.00	104%	3.90	90%	3.50	88%
2026-11-03	4004324	Barcelona	Aston_Villa	+	173	1140	967	34	74	18	9				More	1.29	95%	6.50	117%	10.75	97%
2026-11-03	4004323	Atletico_Madrid	Bayern_Munchen		-5	1071	1076	19	47	26	26				More	3.50	165%	4.15	108%	1.95	51%
2026-11-03	4004322	Shaktar_Donetsk	Sporting_Lisbon		-75	899	974	57	14	23	63				More	3.80	53%	4.05	93%	1.88	118%
2026-11-03	4004321	Galatasaray	Stuttgart		6	943	936	157	46	26	27				More	2.15	99%	4.00	104%	3.20	86%
2026-11-02	6010758	La_Coruna	Osasuna		43	955	912	84	58	26	15				More	2.15	125%	3.25	85%	3.60	54%
2026-11-02	2010028	Atalanta	Parma		75	1049	974	153	52	26	22		=		More	1.48	77%	4.60	120%	6.50	143%
2026-11-02	2010027	Sassuolo	Fiorentina		16	1012	995	150	46	28	26				More	2.80	129%	3.70	104%	2.35	61%
2026-11-02	1010392	Newcastle	Everton		35	1045	1010	149	46	25	29				More	2.30	106%	3.65	91%	3.00	87%
2026-11-01	6010757	Bilbao	Real_Sociedad		29	1030	1001	224	42	25	33		-		More	2.13	89%	3.70	93%	3.30	109%
2026-11-01	6010756	Elche	Valencia		20	1000	981	419	49	27	24		+		More	2.25	110%	3.40	92%	3.15	76%
2026-11-01	6010755	Santander	Real_Madrid	-	-134	948	1082	37	22	22	57			=	More	12.00	264%	8.00	176%	1.19	68%
2026-11-01	6010754	Getafe	Sevilla		13	995	982	413	44	28	28				More	3.15	139%	3.10	87%	2.50	70%
2026-11-01	3008345	Eintracht_F	Hamburg	+	80	1016	936	228	54	26	20		=		More	1.62	87%	4.50	117%	5.00	100%
2026-11-01	3008344	Union_Berlin	Cologne	+	69	1003	934	229	53	29	17				More	2.55	135%	3.60	104%	2.55	43%
2026-11-01	2010026	Juventus	Napoli		24	1100	1076	41	41	24	34		+		More	2.25	92%	3.30	79%	3.30	112%
2026-11-01	2010025	Lecce	Genoa		-32	947	979	109	32	26	42				More	3.25	104%	3.10	81%	2.35	99%
2026-11-01	2010024	Lazio	Cagliari		69	1041	971	163	50	31	19		=		More	1.45	73%	4.45	138%	7.00	133%
2026-11-01	2010023	Frosinone	Torino		38	1028	990	123	51	30	19	+			More	2.15	110%	3.95	119%	3.00	57%
2026-11-01	2010022	Como	Venezia	+	180	1095	916	189	74	18	8				More	1.30	96%	5.55	100%	9.50	76%
2026-11-01	1010391	Liverpool	Arsenal		-23	1081	1104	39	28	23	49				More	2.95	83%	3.50	81%	2.35	115%
2026-10-31	6010753	Barcelona	Alaves	+	239	1214	975	137	89	4	7				More	1.10	98%	11.00	44%	21.00	147%
2026-10-31	6010752	Real_Betis	Malaga	+	141	1061	920	133	65	24	11				More	1.33	86%	5.65	136%	9.00	99%
2026-10-31	6010751	Vallecano	Celta_Vigo		-18	1012	1030	171	33	28	39				More	2.40	79%	3.25	91%	3.05	119%
2026-10-31	6010750	Levante	Atletico_Madrid		3	1039	1036	104	37	30	34				More	5.25	194%	4.75	143%	1.55	53%
2026-10-31	3008343	Bayern_Munich	Dortmund	+	203	1291	1088	1	0	0	0				More	1.33	0%	5.50	0%	7.85	0%
2026-10-31	3008342	Bremen	Hoffenheim		-25	982	1008	196	35	24	41			+	More	2.90	102%	3.90	94%	2.20	90%
2026-10-31	3008341	Schalke	RB_Leipzig		-24	961	985	169	30	24	47				More	4.00	120%	3.70	89%	1.90	89%
2026-10-31	3008340	Monchengladbach	Paderborn		54	1004	950	239	41	27	32				More	1.96	80%	3.90	105%	3.40	109%
2026-10-31	3008339	Leverkusen	Stuttgart	+	99	1126	1027	47	47	26	28				More	1.79	84%	4.35	113%	3.80	106%
2026-10-31	3008338	Augsberg	Freiburg	+	60	1030	969	231	46	26	28				More	3.00	138%	3.75	98%	2.20	62%
2026-10-31	2010021	Milan_AC	Inter_Milan		-79	1061	1140	28	29	18	54		-		More	3.65	106%	3.70	67%	2.00	108%
2026-10-31	2010020	Udinese	Roma_AS	-	-121	964	1085	122	15	29	57	-	-		More	6.00	90%	4.50	131%	1.53	87%
2026-10-31	2010019	Bologna	Monza		79	982	904	117	60	24	16				More	1.69	101%	3.90	94%	5.00	80%
2026-10-31	1010390	Aston_Villa	Fulham	+	90	1067	976	218	57	24	19				More	1.93	110%	3.80	91%	3.80	72%
2026-10-31	1010389	Tottenham	Crystal_Palace		-24	969	992	196	34	30	36				More	1.55	53%	4.75	143%	5.50	198%
2026-10-31	1010388	Man_City	Brighton	+	122	1149	1027	172	69	19	12				More	1.65	114%	4.50	86%	4.75	57%
2026-10-31	1010387	Hull_City	Ipswich		39	998	959	318	44	30	26				More	2.65	117%	3.40	102%	2.65	69%
2026-10-31	1010386	Coventry	Sunderland		-38	926	965	76	30	36	34				More	3.10	93%	3.40	122%	2.35	80%
2026-10-31	1010385	Brentford	Nottingham		35	1057	1022	100	45	24	31	-			More	2.04	92%	3.70	89%	3.60	112%
2026-10-31	1010384	Bournemouth	Leeds		40	1042	1002	150	51	19	30	-			More	2.14	109%	3.40	65%	3.50	105%
2026-10-31	1010383	Chelsea	Man_Utd		3	1030	1027	137	36	25	39		-	-	More	1.85	67%	3.90	98%	4.10	160%

A BASIC KEY FOR THE SPREADSHEET : (in response to a few queries on Twitter and Facebook)

RATINGS : These are the ratings for the two teams adjusted for the venue. H = Home Team, A = Away Team, M = Margin between the two sides.
NOTES : A one goal margin win (on average) is 100 points - but given randomness, poisson distribution and standard devation - even 50-75 points is a strong indicator.

PICKS : There are two pick types ...
ML PK = Most likely pick (the most likely result). + is a home win, = is a draw, - is an away win. These are usually obvious to most punters.
DV PK = Discovered Value Pick. + is a home win, = is a draw, - is an away win. These consider the potential risk/reward of odds and potential profits.

OTHER STUFF : Some other notes about the sheet.
OBS : The number of Observations (or previous games) that have helped to shape the result %. The more obs, the better accuracy. 100+ obs is good data.
RESULT % : HW = Home Win, D = Draw. AW = Away Win. These are percentage estimates based on results from previous games with similar ratings.
VAL : This is the potential value of the decimal odds, when considering the expected result %. Eg. 2.00 * 50% = 100% value which is fair value

NOTES : Obvious winners and big favourites are very rarely "good value".
The bookies know they're likely to win too and usually offer a poor price and taking these bets usually means a losing season overall. Always look for value. (100% or better)

If there is anything else you need to know - drop me a line on the GoonersGuide Facebook Page.

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