Spreadsheet Index for GoonersGuide Football Betting Analysis


		TEAMS		ML	RATINGS				RESULT %			DV PICKS			SHEET	HOME ODDS		DRAW ODDS		AWAY ODDS
DATE	GAME_ID	HOME	AWAY	PK	M	H	A	OBS	HW	D	AW	V1	V2	V3	STATS	$	Value	$	Value	$	Value
2026-02-03	2009778	Bologna	Milan_AC		-56	1043	1099	35	40	17	43				More	3.75	150%	3.25	55%	2.10	90%
2026-02-02	6010485	Mallorca	Sevilla		16	1002	986	395	49	25	26		+		More	2.40	118%	3.20	80%	3.10	81%
2026-02-02	2009777	Udinese	Roma_AS		-77	987	1064	132	19	23	58		-	-	More	4.33	82%	3.40	78%	1.91	111%
2026-02-01	6010484	Bilbao	Real_Sociedad		46	1035	989	269	50	25	25				More	2.30	115%	3.10	78%	3.40	85%
2026-02-01	6010483	Getafe	Celta_Vigo		-64	953	1017	112	29	29	42			=	More	2.80	81%	2.90	84%	2.80	118%
2026-02-01	6010482	Real_Betis	Valencia	+	107	1065	958	228	58	27	15				More	1.83	106%	3.50	95%	4.50	68%
2026-02-01	6010481	Real_Madrid	Vallecano	+	196	1161	965	148	84	7	9				More	1.27	107%	5.75	40%	11.00	99%
2026-02-01	3008146	Dortmund	Heidenheim	+	202	1147	944	90	74	11	14				More	1.22	90%	6.00	66%	12.00	168%
2026-02-01	3008145	Stuttgart	Freiburg	+	78	1053	975	192	56	27	18				More	1.70	95%	3.90	105%	4.50	81%
2026-02-01	2009776	Parma	Juventus		-76	982	1058	124	17	27	56	-			More	7.50	128%	4.33	117%	1.45	81%
2026-02-01	2009775	Cremonese	Inter_Milan	-	-164	967	1131	103	15	21	64	-			More	11.00	165%	5.00	105%	1.30	83%
2026-02-01	2009774	Como	Atalanta		-11	1072	1082	50	38	22	40				More	2.30	87%	3.25	72%	3.25	130%
2026-02-01	2009773	Torino	Lecce		-8	969	976	161	44	30	25				More	1.95	86%	3.10	93%	4.50	113%
2026-02-01	1010162	Sunderland	Burnley		70	1031	961	237	44	27	29				More	1.73	76%	3.50	95%	5.00	145%
2026-02-01	1010161	Tottenham	Man_City	-	-105	977	1083	221	19	17	64				More	4.33	82%	4.20	71%	1.67	107%
2026-02-01	1010160	Nottingham	Crystal_Palace		-21	1003	1024	149	39	25	36			-	More	1.95	76%	3.50	88%	3.70	133%
2026-02-01	1010159	Man_Utd	Fulham		55	1050	996	128	48	26	27				More	1.60	77%	4.20	109%	5.25	142%
2026-02-01	1010158	Aston_Villa	Brentford	+	106	1103	997	244	67	20	14				More	1.95	131%	3.60	72%	3.60	50%
2026-01-31	6010480	Elche	Barcelona	-	-121	1017	1137	57	16	19	65			+	More	7.50	120%	5.75	109%	1.33	86%
2026-01-31	6010479	Levante	Atletico_Madrid		-66	970	1036	101	30	34	37				More	5.25	158%	4.00	136%	1.62	60%
2026-01-31	6010478	Osasuna	Villarreal		-19	1041	1060	66	38	21	41				More	2.88	109%	3.30	69%	2.50	103%
2026-01-31	6010477	Real_Oviedo	Girona		-37	958	995	166	37	25	39				More	2.70	100%	3.10	78%	2.80	109%
2026-01-31	3008144	Hamburg	Bayern_Munich	-	-182	1026	1209	42	14	7	79	+			More	11.00	154%	6.50	46%	1.22	96%
2026-01-31	3008143	Bremen	Monchengladbach		-15	986	1001	213	39	21	40			-	More	2.38	93%	3.60	76%	2.70	108%
2026-01-31	3008142	RB_Leipzig	Mainz	+	122	1121	999	116	67	20	13				More	1.55	104%	4.80	96%	5.50	72%
2026-01-31	3008141	Hoffenheim	Union_Berlin		51	1029	978	246	43	27	30				More	1.80	77%	3.70	100%	4.33	130%
2026-01-31	3008140	Eintracht_F	Leverkusen		-18	1062	1079	75	39	28	33			+	More	2.80	109%	3.80	106%	2.20	73%
2026-01-31	3008139	Augsberg	St_Pauli		18	989	971	273	42	27	30				More	2.00	84%	3.40	92%	4.20	126%
2026-01-31	2009772	Cagliari	Verona		52	1011	960	211	44	38	18	=	=	=	More	2.20	97%	3.00	114%	3.80	68%
2026-01-31	2009771	Napoli	Fiorentina	+	109	1093	984	170	69	22	9				More	1.73	119%	3.50	77%	5.25	47%
2026-01-31	2009770	Pisa	Sassuolo		-34	948	982	90	38	24	38				More	2.88	109%	3.10	74%	2.60	99%
2026-01-31	1010157	Liverpool	Newcastle	+	100	1094	994	226	60	23	17				More	1.75	105%	4.10	94%	4.33	74%
2026-01-31	1010156	Chelsea	West_Ham	+	108	1092	984	265	66	20	14				More	1.50	99%	4.33	87%	6.00	84%
2026-01-31	1010155	Wolves	Bournemouth		-47	949	996	126	34	34	32				More	3.00	102%	3.60	122%	2.20	70%
2026-01-31	1010154	Leeds	Arsenal	-	-79	1013	1092	133	24	21	55	+			More	6.00	144%	4.20	88%	1.53	84%
2026-01-31	1010153	Brighton	Everton		-3	1042	1045	75	31	27	43			-	More	1.83	57%	3.60	97%	4.10	176%

A BASIC KEY FOR THE SPREADSHEET : (in response to a few queries on Twitter and Facebook)

RATINGS : These are the ratings for the two teams adjusted for the venue. H = Home Team, A = Away Team, M = Margin between the two sides.
NOTES : A one goal margin win (on average) is 100 points - but given randomness, poisson distribution and standard devation - even 50-75 points is a strong indicator.

PICKS : There are two pick types ...
ML PK = Most likely pick (the most likely result). + is a home win, = is a draw, - is an away win. These are usually obvious to most punters.
DV PK = Discovered Value Pick. + is a home win, = is a draw, - is an away win. These consider the potential risk/reward of odds and potential profits.

OTHER STUFF : Some other notes about the sheet.
OBS : The number of Observations (or previous games) that have helped to shape the result %. The more obs, the better accuracy. 100+ obs is good data.
RESULT % : HW = Home Win, D = Draw. AW = Away Win. These are percentage estimates based on results from previous games with similar ratings.
VAL : This is the potential value of the decimal odds, when considering the expected result %. Eg. 2.00 * 50% = 100% value which is fair value

NOTES : Obvious winners and big favourites are very rarely "good value".
The bookies know they're likely to win too and usually offer a poor price and taking these bets usually means a losing season overall. Always look for value. (100% or better)

If there is anything else you need to know - drop me a line on the GoonersGuide Facebook Page.

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