Spreadsheet Index for GoonersGuide Football Betting Analysis


		TEAMS		ML	RATINGS				RESULT %			DV PICKS			SHEET	HOME ODDS		DRAW ODDS		AWAY ODDS
DATE	GAME_ID	HOME	AWAY	PK	M	H	A	OBS	HW	D	AW	V1	V2	V3	STATS	$	Value	$	Value	$	Value
2025-09-18	4004068	Sporting_Lisbon	Kairat_Almaty	+	138	927	789	56	73	18	9				More	1.11	81%	10.00	180%	23.00	207%
2025-09-18	4004067	Newcastle	Barcelona		-69	950	1019	78	31	29	40				More	3.20	99%	3.75	109%	2.10	84%
2025-09-18	4004066	Man_City	Napoli	+	138	1120	982	36	58	25	17				More	1.67	97%	4.00	100%	5.00	85%
2025-09-18	4004065	Eintracht_F	Galatasaray		79	927	848	100	54	28	18				More	2.05	111%	3.90	109%	3.40	61%
2025-09-18	4004064	Copenhagen	Leverkusen		80	989	910	121	60	21	19		+		More	3.50	210%	3.40	71%	2.15	41%
2025-09-18	4004063	Club_Brugge	Monaco		12	929	918	98	42	30	29	=			More	2.70	113%	3.50	105%	2.50	73%
2025-09-17	4004062	Paris_SG	Atalanta		89	1093	1004	20	30	45	25				More	1.44	43%	4.75	214%	7.00	175%
2025-09-17	4004061	Liverpool	Atletico_Madrid		92	1071	979	44	52	25	23				More	1.60	83%	4.20	105%	5.50	127%
2025-09-17	4004060	Bayern_Munchen	Chelsea		85	1103	1018	18	44	33	22				More	1.67	73%	4.33	143%	5.00	110%
2025-09-17	4004059	Ajax	Inter_Milan		-56	982	1038	43	23	33	44				More	4.00	92%	3.80	125%	1.90	84%
2025-09-17	4004058	Slavia_Prague	Bodo-Glimt		94	888	794	34	53	26	21			=	More	1.80	95%	4.00	104%	4.20	88%
2025-09-17	4004057	Olympiakos	Pafos		56	919	863	84	44	31	25				More	1.44	63%	4.60	143%	8.00	200%

A BASIC KEY FOR THE SPREADSHEET : (in response to a few queries on Twitter and Facebook)

RATINGS : These are the ratings for the two teams adjusted for the venue. H = Home Team, A = Away Team, M = Margin between the two sides.
NOTES : A one goal margin win (on average) is 100 points - but given randomness, poisson distribution and standard devation - even 50-75 points is a strong indicator.

PICKS : There are two pick types ...
ML PK = Most likely pick (the most likely result). + is a home win, = is a draw, - is an away win. These are usually obvious to most punters.
DV PK = Discovered Value Pick. + is a home win, = is a draw, - is an away win. These consider the potential risk/reward of odds and potential profits.

OTHER STUFF : Some other notes about the sheet.
OBS : The number of Observations (or previous games) that have helped to shape the result %. The more obs, the better accuracy. 100+ obs is good data.
RESULT % : HW = Home Win, D = Draw. AW = Away Win. These are percentage estimates based on results from previous games with similar ratings.
VAL : This is the potential value of the decimal odds, when considering the expected result %. Eg. 2.00 * 50% = 100% value which is fair value

NOTES : Obvious winners and big favourites are very rarely "good value".
The bookies know they're likely to win too and usually offer a poor price and taking these bets usually means a losing season overall. Always look for value. (100% or better)

If there is anything else you need to know - drop me a line on the GoonersGuide Facebook Page.

GOONERS NUMBERS A Football Betting Spreadsheet

SPREADSHEET PREDICTIONS - NAVIGATION MENU

INSIDE THE NUMB3RS - THE CURRENT BETTING SHEET PREDICTIONS

GET A BET ON AT A RECOMMENDED ONLINE BOOKMAKER

WEB STUFF - COPYRIGHT - COUNTERS AND TRACKING BITS