Spreadsheet Index for GoonersGuide Football Betting Analysis


		TEAMS		ML	RATINGS				RESULT %			DV PICKS			SHEET	HOME ODDS		DRAW ODDS		AWAY ODDS
DATE	GAME_ID	HOME	AWAY	PK	M	H	A	OBS	HW	D	AW	V1	V2	V3	STATS	$	Value	$	Value	$	Value
2026-09-20	6010717	Valencia	Real_Sociedad		15	992	977	443	46	28	26				More	2.70	124%	3.40	95%	2.50	65%
2026-09-20	6010716	Villarreal	Levante	+	156	1094	937	187	71	20	9				More	1.55	110%	4.40	88%	5.25	47%
2026-09-20	6010715	La_Coruna	Real_Betis		-71	957	1028	98	29	36	36			=	More	2.80	81%	3.40	122%	2.40	86%
2026-09-20	6010714	Atletico_Madrid	Real_Madrid		12	1087	1075	9	11	33	56				More	4.05	45%	3.90	129%	1.80	101%
2026-09-20	6010713	Getafe	Malaga		83	996	912	153	48	24	28				More	2.10	101%	3.00	72%	3.95	111%
2026-09-20	3008309	Paderborn	Hoffenheim	-	-136	877	1013	4	50	25	25				More	4.50	225%	4.40	110%	1.66	42%
2026-09-20	3008308	Schalke	Elversberg		-1	961	962	136	43	32	26	=			More	2.01	86%	3.75	120%	3.60	94%
2026-09-20	3008307	Leverkusen	RB_Leipzig	+	119	1126	1006	95	64	22	14				More	1.99	127%	4.10	90%	3.30	46%
2026-09-20	2009978	Milan_AC	Lecce		60	1050	989	111	50	29	21		=		More	1.27	64%	5.75	167%	11.00	231%
2026-09-20	2009977	Juventus	Atalanta		19	1108	1089	33	39	27	33				More	1.69	66%	3.80	103%	4.90	162%
2026-09-20	2009976	Parma	Genoa		-30	961	991	113	35	31	34				More	3.10	109%	3.10	96%	2.50	85%
2026-09-20	2009975	Frosinone	Como	-	-140	971	1111	131	12	23	65	-	-		More	6.25	75%	4.33	100%	1.50	98%
2026-09-20	1010352	Fulham	Man_Utd		3	1028	1025	144	35	26	40	+			More	3.45	121%	3.80	99%	2.01	80%
2026-09-20	1010351	Man_City	Sunderland	+	179	1157	978	371	75	16	9				More	1.29	97%	5.90	94%	9.90	89%
2026-09-20	1010350	Leeds	Crystal_Palace		43	1048	1004	125	50	22	29			-	More	1.83	92%	3.80	84%	4.55	132%
2026-09-20	1010349	Bournemouth	Liverpool		3	1041	1038	96	35	22	43	+			More	3.10	109%	3.85	85%	2.17	93%
2026-09-19	6010712	Sevilla	Barcelona	-	-162	996	1158	88	20	15	65				More	11.00	220%	6.35	95%	1.22	79%
2026-09-19	6010711	Celta_Vigo	Santander		40	976	937	281	47	31	22				More	1.80	85%	4.00	124%	4.20	92%
2026-09-19	6010710	Bilbao	Alaves		38	1018	980	398	49	26	25	-	-	-	More	1.62	79%	3.90	101%	5.75	144%
2026-09-19	6010709	Osasuna	Vallecano		34	1006	972	433	47	27	25		+		More	2.25	106%	3.25	88%	3.25	81%
2026-09-19	3008306	Stuttgart	Dortmund		15	1103	1088	33	42	30	27	=			More	2.35	99%	4.00	120%	2.80	76%
2026-09-19	3008305	Bremen	Augsberg		-11	976	987	216	33	28	39		-	-	More	2.38	79%	4.00	112%	2.75	107%
2026-09-19	3008304	Hamburg	Cologne		48	990	942	245	39	27	34				More	2.70	105%	3.70	100%	2.45	83%
2026-09-19	3008303	Eintracht_F	Freiburg	+	64	1020	956	224	47	29	23	=	=		More	2.30	108%	3.95	115%	2.80	64%
2026-09-19	3008302	Monchengladbach	Mainz		-36	1021	1057	111	19	31	50			=	More	2.95	56%	3.70	115%	2.20	110%
2026-09-19	2009974	Fiorentina	Napoli		-77	1009	1086	116	26	23	51		-	-	More	3.25	85%	3.40	78%	2.20	112%
2026-09-19	2009973	Venezia	Lazio	-	-96	948	1044	84	14	33	52		-		More	3.75	53%	3.60	119%	1.96	102%
2026-09-19	2009972	Roma_AS	Inter_Milan		47	1175	1128	4	50	0	50		+		More	2.65	133%	3.60	0%	2.55	128%
2026-09-19	2009971	Udinese	Cagliari		21	1006	984	179	41	27	32				More	2.20	90%	3.20	86%	3.35	107%
2026-09-19	2009970	Bologna	Torino		23	990	967	214	37	31	31		=	=	More	1.93	71%	3.45	107%	4.00	124%
2026-09-19	1010348	Nottingham	Coventry		57	1003	946	286	48	29	23				More	1.65	79%	4.05	117%	5.10	117%
2026-09-19	1010347	Newcastle	Hull_City	+	174	1064	889	117	69	23	8				More	1.60	110%	4.50	104%	5.15	41%
2026-09-19	1010346	Everton	Ipswich		66	1017	952	273	47	27	26		=		More	1.75	82%	3.85	104%	4.55	118%
2026-09-19	1010345	Brighton	Arsenal		-58	1063	1121	60	33	17	50				More	4.65	153%	3.90	66%	1.72	86%
2026-09-19	1010344	Tottenham	Aston_Villa		-34	963	997	170	36	27	36				More	2.01	72%	3.65	99%	3.80	137%
2026-09-18	6010708	Espanyol	Elche		63	990	927	231	47	29	24				More	1.83	86%	3.60	104%	4.60	110%
2026-09-18	3008301	Bayern_Munich	Union_Berlin	+	321	1262	942	13	85	8	8				More	1.06	90%	19.00	152%	24.00	192%
2026-09-18	2009969	Monza	Sassuolo		-65	917	983	19	21	26	53				More	3.00	63%	3.45	90%	2.30	122%
2026-09-18	1010343	Brentford	Chelsea		-5	1053	1058	65	25	35	40				More	2.88	72%	3.85	135%	2.25	90%
2026-09-17	6010707	Malaga	Villarreal		-40	962	1002	175	37	27	36				More	3.60	133%	3.90	105%	1.95	70%
2026-09-17	6010706	Real_Betis	Getafe		84	1060	977	184	56	22	22	-			More	1.68	94%	3.80	84%	5.90	130%
2026-09-16	6010705	Levante	Bilbao		43	1031	988	301	46	29	25				More	3.54	163%	3.55	103%	2.10	53%
2026-09-16	6010704	Barcelona	Santander	+	274	1210	937	130	92	6	2				More	1.06	98%	18.00	108%	24.00	48%
2026-09-16	6010703	La_Coruna	Sevilla		-24	957	981	219	37	28	35				More	2.55	94%	3.25	91%	3.10	109%
2026-09-16	6010702	Atletico_Madrid	Osasuna	+	139	1087	948	241	75	16	9			+	More	1.38	104%	4.90	78%	8.50	77%

A BASIC KEY FOR THE SPREADSHEET : (in response to a few queries on Twitter and Facebook)

RATINGS : These are the ratings for the two teams adjusted for the venue. H = Home Team, A = Away Team, M = Margin between the two sides.
NOTES : A one goal margin win (on average) is 100 points - but given randomness, poisson distribution and standard devation - even 50-75 points is a strong indicator.

PICKS : There are two pick types ...
ML PK = Most likely pick (the most likely result). + is a home win, = is a draw, - is an away win. These are usually obvious to most punters.
DV PK = Discovered Value Pick. + is a home win, = is a draw, - is an away win. These consider the potential risk/reward of odds and potential profits.

OTHER STUFF : Some other notes about the sheet.
OBS : The number of Observations (or previous games) that have helped to shape the result %. The more obs, the better accuracy. 100+ obs is good data.
RESULT % : HW = Home Win, D = Draw. AW = Away Win. These are percentage estimates based on results from previous games with similar ratings.
VAL : This is the potential value of the decimal odds, when considering the expected result %. Eg. 2.00 * 50% = 100% value which is fair value

NOTES : Obvious winners and big favourites are very rarely "good value".
The bookies know they're likely to win too and usually offer a poor price and taking these bets usually means a losing season overall. Always look for value. (100% or better)

If there is anything else you need to know - drop me a line on the GoonersGuide Facebook Page.

GOONERS NUMBERS A Football Betting Spreadsheet

SPREADSHEET PREDICTIONS - NAVIGATION MENU

INSIDE THE NUMB3RS - THE CURRENT BETTING SHEET PREDICTIONS

GET A BET ON AT A RECOMMENDED ONLINE BOOKMAKER

WEB STUFF - COPYRIGHT - COUNTERS AND TRACKING BITS