Spreadsheet Index for GoonersGuide Football Betting Analysis


		TEAMS		ML	RATINGS				RESULT %			DV PICKS			SHEET	HOME ODDS		DRAW ODDS		AWAY ODDS
DATE	GAME_ID	HOME	AWAY	PK	M	H	A	OBS	HW	D	AW	V1	V2	V3	STATS	$	Value	$	Value	$	Value
2026-05-04	6010607	Sevilla	Real_Sociedad		-19	971	989	273	37	32	31				More	2.45	91%	3.50	112%	2.80	87%
2026-05-04	2009898	Roma_AS	Fiorentina	+	132	1128	996	90	58	28	14				More	1.62	94%	4.20	118%	5.00	70%
2026-05-04	2009897	Cremonese	Lazio	-	-92	946	1037	78	15	27	58		-		More	3.20	48%	3.30	89%	2.30	133%
2026-05-04	1010271	Everton	Man_City		-74	1010	1084	144	17	19	64				More	6.00	102%	4.75	90%	1.48	95%
2026-05-04	1010270	Chelsea	Nottingham		12	1033	1021	138	41	24	35			-	More	1.70	70%	4.00	96%	4.75	166%
2026-05-03	6010606	Espanyol	Real_Madrid	-	-109	974	1082	62	19	21	60				More	4.75	90%	3.75	79%	1.75	105%
2026-05-03	6010605	Real_Betis	Real_Oviedo	+	103	1038	936	280	56	26	18				More	1.57	88%	4.10	107%	5.75	104%
2026-05-03	6010604	Getafe	Vallecano		6	984	979	388	43	30	27			-	More	2.00	86%	3.30	99%	3.90	105%
2026-05-03	6010603	Celta_Vigo	Elche		78	1003	925	223	46	29	25				More	1.75	81%	3.80	110%	4.50	113%
2026-05-03	3008255	Freiburg	Wolfsburg		51	1049	998	193	49	28	23				More	2.40	118%	3.50	98%	2.88	66%
2026-05-03	3008254	Monchengladbach	Dortmund		-79	1005	1084	91	29	23	48				More	3.75	109%	3.80	87%	1.91	92%
2026-05-03	3008253	St_Pauli	Mainz		-75	952	1027	80	28	31	41				More	2.70	76%	3.10	96%	2.50	103%
2026-05-03	2009896	Inter_Milan	Parma	+	174	1177	1003	20	90	5	5				More	1.22	110%	6.00	30%	13.00	65%
2026-05-03	2009895	Juventus	Verona	+	206	1138	932	108	81	16	4				More	1.22	99%	6.50	104%	12.00	48%
2026-05-03	2009894	Sassuolo	Milan_AC		-78	1004	1082	130	27	22	51	-	-		More	4.75	128%	4.20	92%	1.67	85%
2026-05-03	2009893	Bologna	Cagliari		53	991	938	175	48	34	18		=		More	1.80	86%	3.40	116%	5.00	90%
2026-05-03	1010269	Aston_Villa	Tottenham		75	1077	1003	142	62	24	14				More	2.20	136%	3.60	86%	3.10	43%
2026-05-03	1010268	Man_Utd	Liverpool		30	1077	1046	64	39	19	42		-		More	2.30	90%	3.80	72%	2.75	116%
2026-05-03	1010267	Bournemouth	Crystal_Palace		1	1027	1026	138	32	29	39			-	More	1.65	53%	4.20	122%	4.75	185%
2026-05-02	6010602	Osasuna	Barcelona	-	-100	1046	1145	31	16	32	52				More	4.50	72%	3.90	125%	1.75	91%
2026-05-02	6010601	Alaves	Bilbao		23	999	976	420	48	27	25		+		More	2.70	130%	3.40	92%	2.55	64%
2026-05-02	6010600	Valencia	Atletico_Madrid		12	1013	1001	283	44	25	31	-			More	1.80	79%	4.00	100%	4.10	127%
2026-05-02	6010599	Villarreal	Levante	+	167	1106	939	166	75	17	7				More	1.70	128%	4.33	74%	4.33	30%
2026-05-02	3008252	Leverkusen	RB_Leipzig	+	62	1111	1048	24	46	25	29				More	2.10	97%	4.20	105%	2.88	84%
2026-05-02	3008251	Bremen	Augsberg		10	985	974	257	40	28	32			-	More	1.91	76%	3.60	101%	3.50	112%
2026-05-02	3008250	Union_Berlin	Cologne		24	986	962	267	41	31	28		=		More	2.45	100%	3.40	105%	2.80	78%
2026-05-02	3008249	Hoffenheim	Stuttgart		-22	1038	1060	89	25	38	37		-	=	More	2.25	56%	4.20	160%	2.70	100%
2026-05-02	3008248	Eintracht_F	Hamburg	+	120	1046	926	302	57	24	19				More	1.70	97%	4.10	98%	4.50	86%
2026-05-02	3008247	Bayern_Munich	Hoffenheim	+	225	1252	1027	9	78	22	0				More	1.25	98%	6.00	132%	10.00	0%
2026-05-02	2009892	Atalanta	Genoa		70	1072	1002	95	59	24	17		+		More	1.60	94%	4.00	96%	5.50	94%
2026-05-02	2009891	Como	Napoli		32	1091	1059	36	33	44	22				More	2.25	74%	3.30	145%	3.30	73%
2026-05-02	2009890	Udinese	Torino		28	1005	978	197	43	30	27				More	2.30	99%	3.20	96%	3.30	89%
2026-05-02	1010266	Arsenal	Fulham	+	144	1135	991	330	68	21	11				More	1.45	99%	4.50	95%	7.00	77%
2026-05-02	1010265	Wolves	Sunderland		-5	962	968	233	43	26	31				More	3.10	133%	3.40	88%	2.30	71%
2026-05-02	1010264	Newcastle	Brighton		7	1048	1041	84	36	18	46				More	2.50	90%	3.75	68%	2.60	120%
2026-05-02	1010263	Brentford	West_Ham		53	1040	987	181	44	31	25				More	1.95	86%	3.75	116%	3.60	90%

A BASIC KEY FOR THE SPREADSHEET : (in response to a few queries on Twitter and Facebook)

RATINGS : These are the ratings for the two teams adjusted for the venue. H = Home Team, A = Away Team, M = Margin between the two sides.
NOTES : A one goal margin win (on average) is 100 points - but given randomness, poisson distribution and standard devation - even 50-75 points is a strong indicator.

PICKS : There are two pick types ...
ML PK = Most likely pick (the most likely result). + is a home win, = is a draw, - is an away win. These are usually obvious to most punters.
DV PK = Discovered Value Pick. + is a home win, = is a draw, - is an away win. These consider the potential risk/reward of odds and potential profits.

OTHER STUFF : Some other notes about the sheet.
OBS : The number of Observations (or previous games) that have helped to shape the result %. The more obs, the better accuracy. 100+ obs is good data.
RESULT % : HW = Home Win, D = Draw. AW = Away Win. These are percentage estimates based on results from previous games with similar ratings.
VAL : This is the potential value of the decimal odds, when considering the expected result %. Eg. 2.00 * 50% = 100% value which is fair value

NOTES : Obvious winners and big favourites are very rarely "good value".
The bookies know they're likely to win too and usually offer a poor price and taking these bets usually means a losing season overall. Always look for value. (100% or better)

If there is anything else you need to know - drop me a line on the GoonersGuide Facebook Page.

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