Gooner’s Value Bets – Intro
These aren’t tips for the sake of tipping. Each pick below is a Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet — a wager where the numbers, form, price, and matchup dynamics all point to genuine value.
This list automatically gathers every value bet note from our match previews, covering the past three days and all upcoming fixtures. Updated in real time, it’s the quickest way to see where the edges really are.
No hype, no affiliate fluff — just the bets where the expected value stacks up.
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Gooner’s Value Bets – FAQ
What is a Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet?
A Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet is a wager where the expected value looks favourable based on our long-running performance data and price analysis. It isn’t a guarantee — it’s simply where the numbers, drawn from 27 years of league-specific data, identify similarly rated past matches and point to a potential edge.
How are the value bets calculated?
All calculations reference our published numbers spreadsheet, which has tracked global football results since 1998 and uses an ELO-style system to generate team ratings and matchup probabilities. You can view it directly here: GoonersGuide Numbers Spreadsheet.
Why do some matches not have a value bet?
Only fixtures where the data indicates a meaningful price discrepancy receive a Value Bet note. Many matches are correctly priced by the market and therefore show no statistical edge. Typically, I look for an expected value (EV) of around 115% before placing a bet, ensuring there is a clear edge. Small differences - 1%, 5%, or even 10% — are not precise enough to reliably signal a weak bookmaker line.
How often is this page updated?
The list refreshes automatically, pulling Value Bet notes from all previews posted in the past three days and upcoming matches. New picks appear as soon as their preview is published.
Are these bets personalised tips?
No. These are not personalised recommendations or financial advice. They are statistical observations derived from historic data and published odds.
Today’s Value Bets
Wolves did the double over United last season, including 2-0 here, I see why the sheet thinks there is a chance, but Wolves are woeful so far in 2025/26 with a 0-1-6 home record, and 0-2-12 record overall.
I am a +EV punter by nature - and this is screaming out at 185%EV now - but I think that the sheet hasn't finished down-ranking Wolves yet - so I'm going to leave this one alone.
NO BET for me.
Genoa 45% likely to win @ 3.27 odds = 146% EV. Worth a very small bet at CLoudbet
Not a banker - but Napoli to win is a great +EV bet at Bet365
The stats say a home win is a 38% chance so odds of 4.00 on a home win are 152% of EV - and that's an underdog bet that has got to be taken Bet365.
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