Torquay United vs Cheltenham Betting Pick | English League Two

English League Two

2012-05-17 - Torquay United vs Cheltenham

A Sports Betting Pick by Auls

Torquay United v Cheltenham
Football: English League Two Play Off Semi Final Second Leg
Thursday 17 May 2012 - Kick Off 7:45pm
This game is live on TV
Cheltenham lead the tie 2-0

Torquay United

Torquay United may have finished above their opponents in the League Two final standings, but we saw yesterday that that counts for nothing as Crewe beat Southend over the two legs of their Semi Final. The team have an unenviable task of all overturning League Two Play Off history as they look to become just the 8th side that has overturned a first leg loss in the second leg at home.

They finished 5th in the League Two table, missing out on automatic promotion by just three points. Torquay were 12-8-3 at home this season, scoring 36 goals and conceding 23 and only the top two clubs managed to avoid defeat more often than them this season.

Momentum is a huge factor when you get to the Play Offs and the fact that Torquay failed to win any of their last 5 League games cost them an automatic promotion spot as well as led to them having no momentum. Therefore, it was no real surprise they lost the first leg and now it is about the heart the have for this one. Torquay are unbeaten in their last 6 games at home, but they have only won 3 of those and none by the required difference to even force extra time today. In fact, Torquay have failed to win any game at home by more than 1 goal since November.

Rene Howe will miss out and that is a big loss as the leading goalscorer for the home side this season. Danny Stevens should return to the side after being out with an illness.

Cheltenham

Cheltenham having given themselves a huge boost by taking the first leg of this Semi Final with a 2 goal cushion to boost, but they won't want to sit back and invite pressure for the full 90 minutes tonight so I think we will see a positive attitude from them.

The team finished 6th in the League Two table, comfortably getting into the Play Offs but also being enough away from automatic promotion. That means they don't have the emotional burden of just missing out that some other teams have, teams like their opponents today. Cheltenham are 10-3-10 away from home this season, scoring 34 goals and conceding 34 and only two teams won more games on their travels.

They came into the Play Offs in decent nick having won 4 of their last 6 League games and then backing that up with another win in the first leg. Cheltenham won their last away League game at Plymouth, but they had lost 6 in a row on their travels before that and 3 of those defeats came by more than 1 goal.

Luke Garbutt will need to pass a late fitness test if he is to take his place in the side after missing the first leg. Russ Penn and Ben Burgess are both available for selection.

Head to Head

This is the fifth time this season that Torquay United and Cheltenham will be meeting and it is Cheltenham that have 2 of the previous 4 while Torquay have 1 win.

The teams drew 2-2 at Plainmoor in the League this season, but Torquay had actually won their previous 3 at home against Cheltenham.

Prediction

The prices on Torquay United look a little short considering the way they have been playing in recent weeks, but Cheltenham have been pretty awful on their travels so I can't pick either side to win the game with any degree of confidence.

The one thing I do know is that the home side is going to need to attack pretty sharpish as they look to recover the 2 goal deficit they will be starting the match under.

And goals have never really been a problem when the sides have met each other with 8 of the last 11 games going over 2.5 goals.

That has been particularly evident here at Plainmoor where the last 6 meetings between the teams has seen at least 3 goals scored, including the 2-2 they played out earlier this season.

The Over option is currently being priced at odds against and that looks the way I will attack this game as 'attack' is the key requirement for the home team and spaces could be exploited by Cheltenham on the counter.