Euro 2012
2012-06-11 - Ukraine vs Sweden
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : Euro 2012 : Group D
Monday 11th June - Kickoff 7:45pm
Ukraine
Co-hosts Ukraine come into this tournament struggling for form having had a torrid time in recent friendlies. Still those games don't matter, it's how they do in the next few weeks that counts and in front of their passionate crowd anything is possible.
Ukraine in the past 2 years have lost to Czech Republic, Uruguay, Sweden, France, Italy, Brazil and most recently to Turkey. This side is hardly looking the real deal at the minute but the 3-3 draw with Germany shows the side's potential.
Blokhin's side like to play in a 4-2-3-1 system that still contains veteran Shevchenko in it. The ex-Chelsea man is 35 now and only scored 6 goals this season and he will play behind Milevsky in attack. Milevsky a fellow Kiev player along side Sheva only scored 6 goals this season himself. What it means is the side struggles to take the few chances you get at International level and this lack of efficiency in front of goal may cost them on Monday.
The good news is that the midfield is very solid with Garmash and Tymoschuk hard working and tough tackling. Both protect the back four very well and allow the likes of Gusev and Yarmolenko to spring counter attacks down the flanks. This style of football will be used against Sweden no doubt but will Shevchenko and Milevsky take their chances?
Sweden
Erik Hamren leads his Swedish side into Group D quietly confident that his side can shock England and France and qualify for the quarter finals. On paper this game against Ukraine will be the easiest but in the Ukranian's back yard this could be a really challenging encounter.
Sweden finished second behind Holland in qualifying and even beat the Dutch, granted this was after the Dutch had guaranteed qualification. Interestingly this side scored in every qualification game including 4 against Holland so they certainly know the net is.
As ever Imbrahimovic is the main man, he top scored in qualifying with 5 goals as well as having a fantastic season in Milan with 28 goals in 32 games. Unfortunately, he will probably play just behind Toivonen in the number 10 role but this should increase Sweden's creativity.
I really like the Swedish side when it comes to attacking strength. Larsson is very good out wide whilst Elm is one to watch if you haven't seen him for AZ before. Kallstrom is very good and along with Larsson is sensational from set pieces. So with Zlatan playing deep and midfielders with great service, i fancy Sweden to score a few in this tournament.
Unfortunately, at the other end they struggle. The last 11 competitive games for Sweden have been overs simply because this side doesn't keep clean sheets. Mellberg is 34 now, past his best and still gets games. I fear that against stronger attackers this side will be punished. Fortunately for them I don't think that side is Ukraine.
Betting Verdict
I look at the prices and I struggle to understand why Sweden are outsiders? I can only assume it's because the game is in the Ukraine but when you see their results even at home, they have lost to all sorts of sides. Sweden are very solid and I will definitely be favouring them in this one.
If this game were game 2 or 3 then I would take the 2/1 for Sweden to win this but because a draw may suit both I will have a play on the Asian Market.
Sweden +0.25 is the bet for me, being able to lay Ukraine and get a partial payout seems fair enough. If Sweden win the game then we get a full payout as I expect the likes of Zlatan and co to create just far too many chances. However, the back line of Sweden worries me and this game comes down to whether Sweden can find that second goal and ultimately the full priced winner.
Good Luck
The Pick :
Ukraine 1-2 Sweden
