Euro 2012
2012-06-19 - Sweden vs France
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : Euro 2012 : Group D
Tuesday 19th June - Kickoff 7:45pm
Sweden
Hamren's side are only the second side to be eliminated before the third round of matches. With 2 losses in 2 games, qualification is impossible and having blown a 2-1 lead over England you have to wonder where the players minds are going into this meaningless game with France.
Up against Ukraine, Sweden really had a shocker. Many including myself expected them to take the game to the hosts and get off to a flyer. Eventually they took the lead despite not playing well only to concede twice and lose the game 2-1.
The pressure was really on against England, they needed a point at the very least. Things looked to be going well after coming back from 1-0 down to get ahead 2-1. The Swedes were controlling the game and looked to have England on the back foot at this stage. Then a very poor piece of judgement from Isaksson allowed Walcott to score and the wheels fell off. England went on and won the game but what worries me is all talk since that game from the manager and players.
"We should have won" "England were lucky" - This bitter reaction makes me feel as though their heads are gone and no way are they ready to face France. The only bonus is that they have scored in every qualifying and group game so far but that was when they were up for it. Against France, who knows what mental state Hamren's side will be in.
France
Les Bleus currently occupy top spot in Group D ahead of England on goal difference. If they match England's result they qualify but will obviously want to secure top spot in case Ukraine win and over take them.
The French were unlucky not to beat England in game one. England played for the draw and had very little possession but by getting ahead it made them even harder to break down. Nasri got the equaliser but after that Blanc's side created very little and the game ended 1-1.
In game two against Ukraine the encounter was called off after 5 minutes only for a resumption to occur an hour or so later. The French showed great mental strength to outclass their opponents and win the game 2-0. The 2-0 was not a true reflection on the game for me, Menez, Benzema and Ribery all missed good chances to make the win bigger and they enter this game in very good form.
Blanc's side are now 20 games unbeaten and they have also won 8 of the last 17 with Sweden. This side has all the momentum going into the final group game and I'm sure France will want to win and ensure they avoid Spain in the next round.
Betting Verdict
It is no shock to see France odds on, despite playing well in patches the Swedes have taken nothing from two games and no have nothing to play for.
I expect the Swedes to go for it here and just play an open game of football. 12 of the last 13 Swedish competitive games have gone overs and with France creating plenty of chances in their last games i'm going with overs.
I want to back the French here but I feel the safer bet is overs with at least 3 goals scored in the game to ensure a payout.
Good Luck
The Pick :
Sweden 1-3 France
