NCAA Football
2024-12-31 - Penn State Nittany Lions at Boise State Broncos
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States : College Football PlayOff Quarter Final
Tuesday 31st December 2024 - Scheduled 7:30pm
12:30am (British Time)
Preview
The new First Round of the College Football Playoff was disappointing in terms of drama, and the hope is that the Quarter Final games in the new format will be much more competitive.
This is going to be the first time that a team will be facing an opponent that has had a Bye since the Championship Week of the regular season and in the years ahead we may have more of an indication as to how that will affect performances.
The Penn State Nittany Lions (12-2) crushed the SMU Mustangs at home and they will next face the Boise State Broncos (12-1) in Arizona. Both of these teams may feel they are on the 'weaker' side of the Bracket, especially with the injuries suffered by the Georgia Bulldogs, but focusing on the future and ignoring the present would be a mistake.
All eyes will be on Ashton Jeanty, the Boise State Running Back who was a leading contender to win the Heisman before coming up short in the voting to a deserving Travis Hunter. He will be playing behind the Broncos Offensive Line which has been very effective at setting up the run all season and Jeanty is going to feel he can earn the 132 yards needed on the ground to smash Barry Sanders single season record in the NCAA.
The battle at the Line of Scrimmage is expected to be key to the outcome of this game and the Nittany Lions Defensive Line have played the run very well all season. They will believe they can at least contain Ashton Jeanty to some extent and try and force the Boise State Broncos to have to get the ball out of the hands of their best player and make Maddux Madsen beat them from the Quarter Back position.
Maddux Madsen has benefited from having a superstar at Running Back, but he has been efficient and it has been possible to attack this Penn State Secondary. Being in front of the chains is important, but Madsen is also well protected by the Boise State Offensive Line when he has had to drop back to throw the ball and the Quarter Back has been careful enough with his decision making.
This is important with the Nittany Lions capable of stepping in front of the passing lanes, while Boise State have not had a high level of competition this season as the non-Power 4 representative in the Playoff. However, they did push Big Ten Champions Oregon Ducks all the way very early in the season and that will give the Broncos confidence as they chase the upset.
We know it will be a test for the Broncos at the Line of Scrimmage when they have the ball, but the Boise State Defensive Line is also going to have to try and stop this Penn State run game.
It feels like a big challenge for the Broncos who ended the regular season struggling at the Line of Scrimmage and they now have to face a Nittany Lions Offensive Line that have helped the team power the run game. Everything could come down to this battle in this Quarter Final and Penn State moving the ball on the ground with some big runs will just negate the Broncos pass rush and also allow Drew Allar plenty of time from the Quarter Back position.
There is plenty of pressure on Allar who has been facing a lot of criticism and the same goes for Head Coach James Franklin who has come up short in big spots. The first two Playoff games could not have been much more welcoming for Penn State and their Head Coach-Quarter Back combination and Drew Allar may feel more comfortable without having to be the one to win this with his arm.
Avoiding turnovers is going to be key on both sides of the ball, but the edge has to be with the Penn State Nittany Lions after their dominant win over SMU in the First Round. This is a game being played on a neutral ground, but the Nittany Lions look to have the edge when it comes to establishing the run with any kind of consistency and the Nittany Lions may make enough plays late on to secure a cover of what is a big spread.
Prediction
Lay the points with the favourite in the first ever College Football Playoff Quarter Final.
The Pick :
Boise State 20-33 Penn State
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back Penn State Nittany Lions - 11 Points at -108 with Bookmaker.eu
