NFL Football BETTING PREVIEW - Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills

NFL Football

2025-01-12 - Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills

A Sports Betting Preview by FirstDown

Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills
United States : NFL Playoff Wild Card Game
Sunday 12th January 2025 - Scheduled 1pm
6pm (British Time)

---

Preview

Crushing Divisional rivals Kansas City Chiefs at home in Week 18 was enough for the Denver Broncos (10-7) to edge out the Cincinnati Bengals for the final Wild Card spot in the NFL Playoffs.

Credit has to be given to Sean Payton in his first season with the Broncos as he has snapped their run of eight seasons without making the Playoffs since winning the Super Bowl, and all with a rookie Quarter Back.

Of course it should also be pointed out that the Broncos had lost two in a row before the Week 18 win over the Chiefs, a team that rested all of their starters and who have been accused of wanting to see the Bengals eliminated as a much more dangerous team compared with the Broncos.

Sean Payton's team have made the best of their schedule in all reality and their sole win over an opponent that will also be playing in the Playoff came against Tampa Bay before the win over the second string Chiefs. This season the Broncos have lost to Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Kansas City in the first meeting and the Los Angeles Chargers twice so it is not a very big surprise that they are set as a considerable underdog.

First up for Denver is a trip to the Buffalo Bills (13-4) who won the AFC East and finished with the Number 2 Seed.

There have been so many positives to speak about when it comes to talking about the Bills of recent years, but this is a team that very much considers a success winning a Super Bowl and anything less than that is not good enough. They have beaten the Kansas City Chiefs in the regular season, but the Bills are expecting a tough path towards a potential rematch in the AFC Championship Game and Sean McDermott will not want his team to look too far ahead.

Key players were largely given time to rest through Week 18 as Buffalo turned their attention to the Wild Card Round and this is a Bills team powered by Quarter Back Josh Allen.

He will be up against a solid Denver Defensive unit that have really been a big help throughout the season and allowed Bo Nix to develop at Quarter Back. The Broncos are going to be aware that they need to find a way to slow down this Buffalo Offensive team that does not have too many stand out names around Josh Allen, but who are well Coached and able to be very successful without the superstar names.

Josh Allen is elite and the playmakers work hard, which has made Buffalo successful even without the likes of Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs. The Bills Offensive Line will look to power the running game and having someone like Josh Allen helps with his ability to tuck the ball and make some big plays with his legs.

Ultimately the key for the Bills is to play a clean game and try and stay in front of the chains, which is going to be tested by a tough Denver Defensive Line.

Buffalo will certainly feel they can stay in third and manageable regardless with little screens and the dual-threat of Josh Allen along with a solid Running Back in James Cook on this side of the ball.

Throwing into this Secondary should also be effective for Buffalo considering they don't have an official number one Receiver, meaning Patrick Surtain II is not going to have the same kind of ability to 'take away' an option as would be the case against many teams in the NFL. There are plenty of Receivers capable of stepping up for Josh Allen and he will be encouraged by the successes that Denver opponents have had against this Secondary down the stretch.

This is particularly the case for the better teams that Denver have faced and so the pressure could be on Bo Nix, Sean Payton and the Offensive game plan to find a way to keep this one competitive on the field.

Everything begins with the run for Denver to just give their rookie Quarter Back a bit more time and to be placed in better field position, but it is going to be a test for this Offensive Line to push Buffalo's Defensive Line around. Sean Payton will look to find a way to quicken passes and use little screens to help in place of a proper run game if needed, but it also only going to work as long as the Broncos are competitive.

Bo Nix has shown he has the confidence to make plays from within the pocket, although it will be a real test to do that against the Bills Secondary that ended the season in strong form. The Quarter Back has played clean games of late, but will have to be aware of the ability of the Bills to turn the ball over in the passing game.

Sean Payton has a strong covering record as an underdog in the Playoff, but he is operating with a rookie Quarter Back and they have largely struggled in their first post-season start.

As mentioned in the Baltimore-Pittsburgh Pick, big home favourites have been very good at covering in wins in this Round of the post-season, while teams that have missed at least two straight seasons of Playoff Football and then facing an experienced Playoff opponent are just 16-25 against the spread over the last twelve years.

A backdoor cover cannot be ruled out, but it should be pointed out that Bo Nix has not been the same Quarter Back when playing from behind as he has when operating protecting a lead. After a strong season overall, Denver might just not have enough to stay with a Super Bowl chasing host and the Buffalo Bills may end up pulling away for a strong win.

Prediction

Lay the points with the home favourite.

The Pick :

Buffalo Bills 27-17 Denver Broncos

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

I'll back Buffalo Bills - 8 Points at -115 with Bovada