NFL Football BETTING PREVIEW - Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs

NFL Football

2025-01-18 - Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs

A Sports Betting Preview by FirstDown

Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs
United States : NFL Playoff Divisional Round
Saturday 18th January 2025 - Scheduled 4:30pm
9:30pm (British Time)

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Preview

The two top Seeds in the AFC and NFC might be heading into the Divisional Round of the Playoff after a Bye Week, but they will both be playing on Saturday.

First up is the AFC Number 1 Seed the Kansas City Chiefs (15-2) who are looking to make history over the coming weeks.

There is no doubt that the Kansas City Chiefs are in the midst of their dynasty with three Super Bowl rings in the last of the five seasons. However, they can really cement their names in the history of the NFL by winning the Super Bowl for a third year in a row, something that has never been done before despite some of the top teams that have been around.

Even winning consecutive Super Bowl Championships has placed Kansas City amongst some of the very best teams in history. All credit has to be given to Head Coach Andy Reid and Quarter Back Patrick Mahomes for continuing to motivate themselves for more, but this season there has to be a lot of credit given to the Chiefs Defensive unit for the incredible record put together.

The Chiefs have rode their luck at times, but they are going to be very tough to beat with Arrowhead behind them.

Resting their starters in Week 18 does mean it has been a considerable layoff for the Kansas City Chiefs, but this is a team that have become used to earning Byes in the post-season. Last year was very different and the Chiefs got hot at a very good time, while there won't be many rushing to back the Houston Texans (11-7) to earn a second upset in a row.

Winning as a home underdog in the Wild Card Round will have given the Texans a boost, but this is a very tough game for them on the road and in what is expected to be very cold temperatures at Arrowhead. CJ Stroud has shown his qualities since entering the NFL, but one of those has not been performing in these kind of cold weather temperatures and it will be tough for the Texans, a Dome team.

The Texans will need the Quarter Back and the Offensive unit to make some plays, but the Defensive unit have to pick up from where they left off against the Los Angeles Chargers. The Houston Defensive Line will feel they can contain the Kansas City Chiefs on the ground and put all of the pressure on the shoulders of Patrick Mahomes, although this is a Quarter Back who thrives when he has the game on his shoulders.

It has not been a vintage season for Patrick Mahomes and this Texans Secondary have played well behind some of the pressure they have generated up front. In saying all that, you know Mahomes is going to scramble and extend plays and he has a huge amount of trust in all of his Receivers that he will keep drives moving.

A key for the Texans is to try and generate pressure with the front four and see if they can leave when in coverage, but it will be tough to completely lock down Patrick Mahomes. Instead the Defensive unit have to try and give their Offense a chance in this one by at least stalling some Kansas City drives and keeping their team in the game.

Both Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell are out for the Houston Texans and so the play-calling has perhaps become more reliant on the run rather than CJ Stroud and the pass. Joe Mixon has been having a strong end to the season for Houston and the encouraging part, as far as they are concerned, is that the Chiefs Defensive Line has been allowing teams to move the chains.

They may try and strengthen up front to force CJ Stroud to have to take to the air with the main threat being Nico Collins, and there have been one or two holes that the Quarter Back may feel he can exploit in the Secondary.

Avoiding turnovers is absolutely key for Houston, who were beaten here at Arrowhead just days before Christmas. That was a game where Kansas City only had a little over 60 yards more than Houston and it was a competitive game for a long time, which is the expectation of this Divisional Round game.

You would think having the Bye has given the home teams a big advantage in the Divisional Round, but that has not been the case and those teams are 3-5 against the spread.

And for all of Patrick Mahomes' qualities, he is just 22-32-3 against the spread when set as a favourite of at least 7 points. For a long time the Chiefs have done what is needed to win games, but blowing teams away is not really high on their list of agendas in each week and there is every chance they begin to look ahead to the AFC Championship Game if getting into a two score lead.

The cold weather continues to be a concern, but CJ Stroud is 10-6 against the spread as the underdog and the Texans can control the Line of Scrimmage, which should allow them to keep this close on the scoreboard at the very least.

Prediction

Take the points on offer with the road underdog.

The Pick :

Kansas City Chiefs 24-17 Houston Texans

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

I'll back Houston Texans + 9.5 Points at -120 with Bookmaker.eu