ITALIAN SERIE A BETTING PREVIEW - CAGLIARI VS FIORENTINA

Italian Serie A

2025-08-24 - Cagliari vs Fiorentina

A Sports Betting Preview by Cafa

Cagliari v Fiorentina
Italy Serie A - Round 1
Unipol Domus, Cagliari, Sardinia, Italy (16,416)
Sunday, 24 August 2025, 18:30 CET
Free live streaming at Bet365. Funded account required.

Cagliari Team News

Cagliari is a side that somehow managed to stay up last season, against all odds, as they did marginally better than the relegated Empoli, Venezia and the awful Monza. Empoli has shown more during the early season, but eventually dug too deep of a hole with a 20-match winless streak, whereas Cagliari trodded along nicely, finishing with respectable 9 wins.

This team, frankly, was never expected to survive in Serie A for more than a year. But Claudio Ranieri achieved the impossible in their first season in top flight, in 2023/24, and then somehow the team grew, settled into the competition, and now they could achieve safety again if they continue on the same path. After all, Pisa, Lecce, Cremonese and Hellas Verona are all in worse condition, and three teams are getting relegated.

Fabio Pisacane, 39, is the new head coach, and he has some new toys to play with. Surprisingly, Cagliari decided to splash a lot of cash on new players, which is rare for a relegation candidate, as they usually loan players in or try to get a bargain. Cagliari brought in

Cagliari bought Roberto Piccoli from Atalanta after having him on loan last season, where he scored 10 goals and made 3 assists in 37 appearances. They also brought in Semih Kilcsoy on loan from Besiktas and Giancarlo Esposito on loan from Empoli, obviously using the same tried and tested path of having a player prove that he deserves a full transfer. They did the same with Elia Caprile, the 23-year-old goalkeeper whose contract was bought for €8m from Napoli after he played 18 times for Cagliari on loan.

Now Cagliari has a healthy selection of players, including those, like Piccoli, that are now considered key players because they’ve proven they can carry the team. All this seems to be heading in the right direction. Cagliari might grow into a stable Serie A team soon if they keep it up with good roster decisions.

It’s up to coach Pisacane to make it happen, though. Expect this side to be orientated towards scoring, as their roster is still very thin in defence, and, after all, it is common for Cagliari to play from behind and they know it. We can expect Cagliari to score just a little bit more this year (42 goals in 2023/24, 40 goals in 2024/25), while still conceding around 60, which makes them a good BTTS and/or Over 2.5 Goals candidate week after week.

Fiorentina Team News

For the last two seasons, Fiorentina was like a testing ground for various offensive players, on all four positions - left and right wingers, forwards, and attacking midfielders - none of which really worked out to be the magic solution. A lot of time, in particular, has been spent on rotating the centre forward. All the proposed solutions were some innovative way to cheat the system by not paying too much for a forward.

Eventually, Moise Kean, the surplus at Juventus, came along for mere €13m and is now worth €50m because he scored 19 times in 32 games last season. He was the player to cap off what is otherwise splendid offensive play (as Fiorentina keeps stockpiling decent offensive players). With this spearhead, Fiorentina’s offense can now be taken seriously, and, most importantly for us who are betting on Fiorentina, you can count on this side to score whereas previously you only hoped they would.

Fiorentina scored in 31 of 38 rounds last season, and conceded in 26 of 38. However, despite the natural tendency of this top-heavy side to always score and always concede, the stats show that BTTS came through in only 55% of their matches, for what would be fair average odds of 1.81. And as you surely know, we’re getting less than that on Fiorentina most of the time.

However, Fiorentina was at the very top of the league, together with Milan and Lazio, for frequency of Over 2.5 Goals, they had 23 such outcomes, which is 61%. Long story short, it is wise to bet on BTTS and/or Over 2.5 Goals on Fiorentina’s matches, regardless of the opponent.

This will continue to be the case in 2025/26.

Probable Lineups

(to be updated 24h prior to kick off)

The Betting Market

We expected something like 1.80 on Fiorentina but the bookmakers don't seem to trust the 7-4-8 28:23 away side much, despite them winning here last season and the season before. The price on Fiorentina is 2.30, and that's really something to consider.

Over 2.5 Goals is priced at 2.10, yet another tempting option, with BTTS-Yes the more likely outcome at 1.80, with 1.95 for a No.

The Betting Verdict

While it’s far from a certain thing, we can definitely see this match turning out very similar to last year’s meeting in Cagliari which ended 1-2 with the hosts scoring first. The bookmakers don’t really see it, as the Over 2.5 Goals is priced at 2.10, which actually further increases the appeal of that bet.

At least that bet was the original idea. But upon seeing Bet365's enhanced price on Fiorentina, 2.35, we simply must take that. This is a pure value bet.

The Pick :

Cagliari 1-2 Fiorentina

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Take Fiorentina to Win at 2.35 at Bet365