NFL Football BETTING PREVIEW - Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills

NFL Football

2025-09-18 - Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills

A Sports Betting Preview by FirstDown

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills
United States : NFL Week 3
Thursday 18th September 2025 - Scheduled 8:20pm
1:20am (British Time)

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Preview

Week 3 opens up with a Thursday Night Football offering from the AFC East and it already looks a challenge for three teams to catch the defending Champions Buffalo Bills (2-0). The personal feeling was the Bills could be potentially vulnerable in Week 2 having fought back to beat the Baltimore Ravens in Week 1 thanks to an epic Fourth Quarter, but Buffalo crushed the New York Jets on the road and they can take a firm grip of this Division over the coming weeks.

They dropped the Jets to 0-2 and they face a Divisional opponent with the same record when the Miami Dolphins (0-2) head to town after losing to the New England Patriots.

About the only positive thing you can say about that is the Dolphins were a lot more competitive than in the opening game when blown out by the Indianapolis Colts, but falling to 0-2 has already placed the team in a desperate spot. A banner had been flown above the Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday declaring that the General Manager Chris Grier and Head Coach Mike McDaniel should be fired and there is a real sense that those supporters will get their wish at the end of this season.

That doesn't do much for the team now and the doom-mongers who suggested the Miami Dolphins could be the worst team in the NFL look to be on the right side of that discussion.

There really has not been much to be positive about and having to play on a short week at the home of a genuine Super Bowl contender, and one that will be keen to keep their foot on the throat of Divisional rivals, have left the layers with no choice but to ask the Bills to cover this big line.

With Mike McDaniel as Head Coach, there was a hope that the Dolphins Offensive performances would always be strong, but there has to be serious questions about Tua Tagovailoa's future at Quarter Back. Tyreek Hill looks desperate to get out of Miami and Jayden Waddle has not really kicked on, but the Quarter Back has had health issues and certainly looks weaker than some of his peers that came out in the same NFL Draft.

He did have 315 passing yards last week, but Tua Tagovailoa threw a late, back breaking Interception and then was also stopped on Downs as the Dolphins passed up the chance for the late victory. The Sacks have also been piling up and this Buffalo team have been getting some real pressure up front, so there may not be a lot of time for Tagovailoa if he is having to throw from behind the chains.

However, the Offensive Line have been able to open some solid running lanes and Miami will have noted the successes that the Ravens and Jets have had against the Buffalo Defensive Line. While this game is close, De'Von Achane can rip off some yards on the ground to put his team in the best position to have consistent Offensive success and he may also become a big factor in the passing game with Matt Milano set to miss out for the Buffalo Bills.

That should mean Miami arrive without all doom and gloom, but the pressure could be keeping up with the Buffalo Bills on the scoreboard and having to be forced to drift away from a running game-plan.

Josh Allen is Josh Allen, but it is a huge boost for the Buffalo Bills seeing James Cook producing as he has from Running Back, while the Wide Receivers and Tight Ends are looking like they have taken a step forward in their development.

It is all positive for the Bills right now and it may be tough for the Miami Dolphins to find a way to slow them down.

The Defensive Line has at least made some plays up front, but Buffalo are running out an Offensive Line that is experienced and feasting up front, which is making things very comfortable for James Cook. The Running Back has already produced three Touchdowns on the ground, while also having confident hands which makes Cook a secure safety blanket as far as his Quarter Back is concerned.

If the Bills are running the ball as expected, Josh Allen should be able to carve up a Secondary that has looked incredibly weak.

Josh Allen is not expected to be facing much pass rush pressure and the Buffalo fans arriving at the Stadium may be thinking about the way the Colts moved the ball against Miami and feeling that their team will be able to do whatever they like in this game.

The short week also gives the favourite a bit more of an advantage as Green Bay showed last week, although Buffalo have not always had success on Thursday Night Football with a 1-3 record against the spread when set as the home favourite. The Bills have tended to play in games that do not surpass the total in these Thursday Night affairs, especially at home, and that does make me a little wary about asking the team to cover a double digit spread.

Last season the Bills were 2-1 against the spread when set as favourites of at least 9.5 points, but this is a big mark and previously they had perhaps struggled to meet expectations considering how easily a backdoor cover can be achieved.

Miami certainly have the skill players to do that too, but Buffalo should be focused enough on a rival and this is a team that have dominated when facing winless opponents early in the season.

The Bills have tended to put the beatdown on the Miami Dolphins at least in one of the regular season games in recent years and everything is pointing to that more likely being the case in Week 3. In three of their last five home games against the Dolphins, Buffalo have been able to come through with a victory of at least a 15 point margin and the faster starting AFC East team can pull away in the second half and perhaps use a turnover or two to ensure they cover this line.

Prediction

Lay the points with what looks to be the best team in the AFC East yet again.

The Pick :

Buffalo Bills 34-17 Miami Dolphins

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

I'll back Buffalo Bills - 11.5 Points at -110 with BetOnline