NCAA Football BETTING PREVIEW - Tennessee Volunteers @ Mississippi State

NCAA Football

2025-09-27 - Tennessee Volunteers at Mississippi State

A Sports Betting Preview by FirstDown

#15 Tennessee Volunteers @ Mississippi State Bulldogs
United States : College Football Week 5
Saturday 27th September 2025 - Scheduled 4:15pm
9:15pm (British Time)

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Preview

Once again the Georgia Bulldogs have found a way to get the better of the Tennessee Volunteers (3-1), but there is still so much for the Volunteers to play for through the remainder of the regular season. One defeat is not going to keep them out of the College Football Playoff and the team responded to the heartbreaking defeat to the Bulldogs by crushing the UAB Blazers in Week 4.

However, there is a pressure on Tennessee to get back on track in the SEC having dropped the opening Conference game and they are facing the Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-0) who lost all eight SEC games played last season.

Credit has to be given to the Bulldogs in the fact they have already doubled the win total of 2024 through the first four games, but the schedule has been relatively comfortable. The narrow win over the Arizona State Sun Devils, a team that made the Playoff Bracket last season, will have given Mississippi State a lot of belief, especially as they had been set as the home underdog in that game.

It is a win that could look very good come the end of the season, but this is the start of a run of eight SEC games in succession and that is when the schedule does look extremely challenging.

The Bulldogs do have some experienced players on the roster, although the team lost valuable players from last season in the transfer portal. Despite those losses, the start made to the 2025 campaign will have given the Bulldogs a huge amount of belief, even if they are about to step up a level or two in terms of competition.

Running the ball against this Volunteers Defensive Line has proven to be a huge challenge in recent years and everything points to this being a strength of the unit once again. The Mississippi State Offensive Line have begun the season very well, but the schedule has helped and the expectation is that Quarter Back Blake Shapen is going to have to make plenty of plays with his arm to keep things moving.

Blake Shapen was the understudy at the position last season so the system is not something that will be unfamiliar to him and he has made a strong start. 884 passing yards with 7 Touchdown passes has to be respected, but playing from behind the chains will be a different test for the Quarter Back, as will the fact that he is likely to be under pressure from this Tennessee pass rush.

There have been one or two spaces to exploit in the Secondary, which will give Blake Shapen and the Bulldogs something to attack, but finding the consistency will be the test for the home underdog.

Mississippi State have produced some early solid numbers on the Defensive side of the ball, but the level of competition cannot be ignored.

In Week 5 they are facing one of the stronger teams in the SEC who are being led very competently by Quarter Back Joey Aguiar.

Everything begins on the Offensive Line though and this Volunteers team have piled up the yardage on the ground and while playing stronger opponents than they one they face on Saturday. Stopping the run was a huge issue for the Bulldogs Defensive Line last season and the Tennessee Volunteers are likely to pummel them in this one and make sure Joey Aguilar is in a much more comfortable position to make plays against the Secondary.

If they are playing in front of the chains as expected, the Bulldogs Secondary are going to find it very difficult to make the same kinds of plays as they have against weaker opponents. This should give Tennessee the opportunities to move the ball pretty comfortably for much of the afternoon and they can win this game and cover the spread.

In recent years the Bulldogs have been a pretty poor home underdog with a 3-9-1 record against the spread since the beginning of the 2021 season. They are 2-3 against the spread in that spot under Head Coach Jeff Lebby, while Tennessee finished 3-1 against the spread as the road favourite last season.

This is the first true road game of the season, which is always going to be a test of character, but the Volunteers are going into a Bye Week following this one and they can put everything into this game.

Being 0-1 in the SEC means there is some urgency too and the Volunteers are unlikely to overlook the hosts, who have made a perfect start to the 2025 season, which should lead to a Tennessee win by double digits.

Prediction

Lay the points with the road favourite.

The Pick :

Mississippi State 17-30 Tennessee Volunteers

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

I'll back Tennessee Volunteers - 7 Points at -115 with EveryGame Sportsbook