MLB Baseball BETTING PREVIEW - Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees

MLB Baseball

2025-10-01 - Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees

A Sports Betting Preview by FirstDown

Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees
United States : MLB Baseball Playoff Wild Card Game 2
Wednesday 1st October 2025 - Scheduled 6:08pm
11:08pm (British Time)

---

Preview

Manager Aaron Boone knows that all eyes are going to be on him and his decision making the rest of the way in the Major League Baseball Playoffs, but that 'rest of the way' may only be one more game. Previous years have seen fans raising the idea that Boone is holding back this Yankees team from winning a 28th World Series, but those statements really felt like they had rang true in Game 1 of this Wild Card Round.

With his team leading and Max Fried out-duelling Garrett Crochet, Aaron Boone decided to go to the bullpen with one out in the Seventh Inning.

Three batters later, Luke Weaver was giving the ball back to the Manager and the Yankees were trailing on the scoreboard.

Credit has to be given to Garrett Crochet for pitching a great game into the Eighth Inning as he set a new career best mark for number of pitches thrown in a single outing, but there is no doubt the New York Yankees will look in the mirror and know they blew a big chance to take a lead in a Series where they now need to win twice in a row.

It wasn't solely the decision to take out Max Fried, but relying on Luke Weaver felt like a big mistake and it ultimately cost the home team. The batters loading up the bottom of the Ninth with no outs recorded gave New York a chance, but a Strikeout was followed by a Fly Out and another Strikeout and the Yankees are a single loss away from having the 2025 season ended just a couple of days into October.

They will give the ball to Carlos Rodon, who did have a very strong regular season, but who will still have some questions to answer.

He did hold the Boston Red Sox to two earned runs in almost 6 Innings completed in August, and picked up the decision win, but in just shy of 16 Innings thrown against this Divisional rival in 2025, Carlos Rodon has given up ten earned runs. With a bullpen that was embarrassed already, the Yankees need Rodon to get through some Innings so there is a challenge set for the starter.

Last season, Carlos Rodon finished with a 1-2 record in four Playoff starts and he had a 5.60 ERA, so there are also some post-season demons to exorcise.

The Boston Red Sox have to be feeling really good about everything heading into Game 2 and they will be aware of how strong road teams and Game 1 Winners have been since 2022 in the Wild Card Round of the Playoffs.

They will turn to Brayan Bello, who is coming into this one behind his strongest regular season in terms of ERA, but who will be throwing in the Playoffs for the first time.

Brayan Bello lost his final three regular season starts, including when allowing four runs in 5 Innings against the New York Yankees. However, Bello had not allowed a single run in 14 Innings thrown in two previous starts against this rival, including in 7 Innings at Yankees Stadium in August.

That outing means Brayan Bello has made five starts in this ballpark and he has a 3-1 record with a 1.44 ERA.

Prediction

The natural reaction when looking at the New York Yankees batting lineup and regular season record is believing that they will bounce back in Game 2 of this Wild Card Series, but there are some red flags around picking the home team as a favourite.

For starters, the Boston Red Sox have regularly got the better of the Yankees in the regular season and found more magic at key times to beat them in Game 1.

Secondly, Brayan Bello is going to the mound having enjoyed considerable career success at Yankees Stadium, including holding New York scoreless in 7 Innings completed in August. His career mark of a 1.44 ERA in this ballpark cannot be dismissed, even if Bello was knocked around by the Yankees at Fenway Park a couple of weeks ago.

Thirdly, Carlos Rodon is heading to the mound having had some tough Playoff experiences last season and knowing that the Red Sox batting lineup have had success against him in 2025. He is also under pressure to get through a number of Innings to protect the vulnerable Yankees bullpen.

On Tuesday, three of the four Wild Card Game 1s were pitcher contests, but there is a feeling this one could be a little more fiery. Both batting lineups will feel they can get into the opponent's starter a little quicker than Game 1 and that might expose the bullpens.

When they played in a four game set in New York in August, three of the four games featured at least nine runs and both may believe they were a hit or two away from really getting the scoreboard ticking on Tuesday. The two starters have had successes to give them confidence, but both have also had moments of being knocked around by these batters and this could be one of the higher-scoring games of the day.

You cannot discount the upset here for a second night in a row, although the better play may be backing the total line to be surpassed.

The Pick :

New York Yankees 5-4 Boston Red Sox

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

I'll back Over 7.5 Total Runs at +100 with Bovada