MLB Baseball BETTING PREVIEW - Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians

MLB Baseball

2026-10-05 - Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians

A Sports Betting Preview by FirstDown

Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians
United States : MLB Playoff Divisional Round Game 2
Monday 5th October 2026 - Scheduled 5pm EST
10pm (British Time)

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Preview

There may have been a day of rest between the first two games of the American League Divisional Round Series, but teams are not giving away anything. The Chicago White Sox have taken their time before announcing a starter, although it has long been clear that Game 2, like Game 1, will be one where they deploy the bullpen and look to find the right match ups.

It worked well in Game 1 as the Chicago White Sox stole home field advantage from rivals and American League Central Winners the Cleveland Guardians in a 3-0 win. The expectation is that the White Sox will go with a long reliever in Game 2, but it is Anthony Kay who will begin as they look to take a stranglehold of the Series before it moves back to The Windy City later in the week.

After pitching in Japan for a couple of years, Anthony Kay made a solid return to the Major League in 2026 and concluded the regular season with a 10-9 record and 4.44 ERA after making thirty-three appearances for the Chicago White Sox. All but two of those has been in the role of a starter, but Kay would have been aware that little chances will be taken with his time on the mound as long as the White Sox are in the Playoffs.

This situation would have become clear for Anthony Kay when he concluded the regular season with a 1-3 record and 6.46 ERA from the last seven starts made.

However, the White Sox have to be happy with the early contributions in the Playoffs after Anthony Kay recorded a couple of Outs in the win over the Houston Astros in the Wild Card Round that ultimately earned him his first ever Playoff win. In Game 1 of this Divisional Round Series, Kay gave up a single Hit while recording four more Outs against the Cleveland Guardians and he may not be asked to go much longer than an Inning in this Game 2 start.

Last month, Anthony Kay did not give up an earned run in 4 Innings thrown in this ballpark, while he allowed a single run in the same amount of Innings in the other start made at Progressive Field.

The White Sox have to be encouraged by that, but the expectation is that Sean Burke will be entering Game 2 pretty quickly and will be tasked with getting through the bulk of the Innings. The third year pitcher finished the regular season with a 3.34 ERA from thirty-two appearances and twenty-seven of those had been as a starter.

Sean Burke pitched 4 Innings to start the Wild Card win over the Houston Astros, but gave up three runs before turning things over to Anthony Kay and the roles will be reversed for this Divisional Round Game 2.

He had a much stronger September than Anthony Kay having finished with a 4-1 record 3.47 ERA from the five starts made, although that ERA is impacted by the seven runs allowed while being withdrawn in the 2nd Inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Sean Burke bounced back to throw 5 Innings without giving up an earned run against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field, and that means the pitcher has thrown 11 Innings in this ballpark and allowed a single run to cross Home Plate in 2026.

Chicago are going to be comfortable with the approach they will take to Game 2, but the Cleveland Guardians will also believe they can bounce back behind Gavin Williams.

They will need to find big shots at the right time having allowed the White Sox to escape a couple of bases loaded Innings in Game 1, while there will be pressure on Williams to keep the Guardians in this Series for as long as possible.

Another defeat would put the Guardians on the brink of elimination, but Gavin Williams did have an 14-8 record and 3.76 ERA in his thirty-two starts made this season. Last year, Williams pitched 6 Innings in the Playoff loss to the Detroit Tigers and was saddled with the loss despite not giving up an earned run.

Gavin Williams was chased out of the game in his last regular season start, while also took the decision loss against the Chicago White Sox when giving up two runs in 5 Innings thrown last month. He has allowed at least two runs to the White Sox in all four starts made against them in 2026, and finished with a 0-1 record.

These two American League Central rivals played a big series here in the regular season in September and Cleveland did bounce back from dropping the opener to win two in a row before the White Sox rallied for a split.

Prediction

Playoff Games tend to be on the lower scoring side of the ledger as teams are willing to cycle out the relievers to play the match ups.

This may be especially the case in those Series where a day of rest between games helps and the White Sox have to be very confident in the depth of the bullpen.

Sean Burke likely operates as a long reliever and has dominated the Cleveland Guardians in 2026, which makes the underdog look an appealing price.

However, the Guardians are desperate and you have to expect the batters to be better when the big situations arise.

Gavin Williams will keep the home team competitive, although he has struggled to contain a power hitting Chicago White Sox lineup and the best play in Game 2 may actually be backing the 'over' since the line dipped below 7.

The Pick :

Cleveland Guardians 3-4 Chicago White Sox

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

I'll back Over 6.5 Total Runs at -110 with Bovada