MLB Baseball BETTING PREVIEW - Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres

MLB Baseball

2026-10-06 - Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres

A Sports Betting Preview by FirstDown

Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres
United States : MLB Playoff Divisional Round Game 3
Tuesday 6th October 2026 - Scheduled 9:30pm EST
2:30am (British Time)

---

Preview

The San Diego Padres return home on the brink of elimination and they have to be wondering how they have not managed to at least squeeze through a victory in one of the two games played on the road.

All of the pressure is on the home team to extend this Divisional Round Series as they prepare to host the Milwaukee Brewers.

Big Hits have been found at critical moments and the Brewers have done what they have needed to move into a 2-0 lead, but Milwaukee will also know that this Series is far from over. They would love to complete the sweep and get rested ahead of the National League Championship Series, but the Brewers will have noted how tough the opening two games have been and will be expecting more of the same.

The Number 1 Seed will turn to Dustin May in Game 3, but he has not been at his best since arriving in a trade from the St Louis Cardinals. In ten starts, Dustin May has a 5.65 ERA, and he will be pitching in the post-season for the first time since 2020 when he was a member of the Los Angeles Dodgers team that won the World Series.

Dustin May had been working more like an opener in September as the regular season wound down and he is expected to be on a short leash in this one as well.

Confidence can be taken from the fact that Dustin May has thrown 22 Innings against the San Diego Padres this season and allowed just three earned runs. One of those was in the Milwaukee uniform in this ballpark when Dustin May gave up a single run in 7 Innings completed and that may help this pitcher settle.

The San Diego Padres will have regrets about the way they managed the bullpen in the Game 2 defeat to the Milwaukee Brewers having entered the bottom of the 9th Inning with a lead. Mason Miller missed his Close attempt, but the Padres have also hinted that they should not have tasked him with getting six Outs and that ultimately cost them.

Nick Pivetta will be getting the ball to start for the Padres, but he is another pitcher that may not be given a lot of time on the mound.

Only eight regular season starts were made in 2026 and Nick Pivetta was withdrawn in the 4th Inning having allowed a single run to the Chicago Cubs in the Wild Card Round. The Padres will be confident the starter can get through the batting lineup twice, but Pivetta may not be tasked with moving through the Brewers a third time and the San Diego bullpen will have to find a way to close out a game.

It should be noted that Nick Pivetta has a pretty awful record against the Milwaukee Brewers overall, but he did not face them in 2026. In the final start of the 2025 regular season, Nick Pivetta allowed three runs in just shy of 6 Innings completed against the Milwaukee Brewers.

The Padres swept a home series with the Brewers in August.

Prediction

Another close game is expected when the Milwaukee Brewers look to sweep the Divisional Round Series with the San Diego Padres, but the home team may still believe they can find a way to force this back to Milwaukee for a decider.

Both starting pitchers may be ready to turn the ball over to the bullpen pretty quickly, and then it will come to the Managers making the right decisions with how they deploy those relievers.

Nick Pivetta has not had the season he would have hoped in terms of number of starts made, but looked decent enough in the Playoff win over the Chicago Cubs.

The Padres will need him at his best when facing Dustin May, who has made things difficult for them this season. However, May's overall recent level has not been as high as he would have hoped and it may allow the San Diego Padres to avoid elimination in a sweep.

The Pick :

San Diego Padres 3-2 Milwaukee Brewers

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

I'll back San Diego Padres to Win at -130 with BetOnline