English Premier
2025-05-16 - Aston Villa vs Tottenham Hotspur
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: English Premier League
Friday 16th May 2025 - Kick Off 7:30pm
This game is live on TV
Aston Villa
A win at a tough venue on a weekend when the likes of Chelsea, Manchester City and Nottingham Forest all dropped points has given Aston Villa the momentum to push into the top five places. Unai Emery and the club are incredibly proud that they have made it into a European competition for the third year in succession, but the opportunity to return to the Champions League gives Aston Villa the motivation to finish with a flourish.
They have moved up into 6th place in the Premier League standings after results this past weekend and Aston Villa are only 3 points behind 3rd placed Newcastle United. The poorer goal difference compared with their rivals will be a potential issue, but all focus for the team is to put in one more big effort at Villa Park where they have a 10-7-1 record in the top flight.
Aston Villa had just lost some of the positive momentum when losing to Manchester City in the Premier League and then being crushed by Crystal Palace in the FA Cup Semi Final. These results had come soon after The Villans had narrowly been beaten by Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League Quarter Final, but back to back 1-0 Premier League wins over Fulham and Bournemouth have kept the team on track. Aston Villa have won their last 7 at Villa Park in all competitions.
Jacob Ramsey was sent off at the Vitality Stadium and will serve a suspension, while both Youri Tielemans and Marcus Rashford are considered doubtful.
Tottenham Hotspur
Another Premier League fixture ended in a defeat, but Ange Postecoglou continues to insist that some of the results have partly been due to the fact that his one-time stretched squad had strong runs in the League Cup and Europa League. There is still one more match to play in Europe and you can guarantee that Ange Postecoglou will not mind if his Tottenham Hotspur team lose both Premier League games around that Europa League Final just as long as Spurs win in Bilbao.
After consultation with the Premier League and moving through the pushback offered by the home club, Tottenham Hotspur have managed to move this fixture from Sunday to Friday so they have the same preparation time as Manchester United for the Europa League Final. The side did drop to 17th in the Premier League table last weekend and they are set for not only their lowest finish since the formation of this League, but lowest since 1978 when playing in the second tier.
Tottenham Hotspur have to be given some respect for the way they have been able to battle in the Europa League and that character has been on display in Knock Out away wins at Eintracht Frankfurt and Bodo/Glimt. However, the defeat last Sunday means Spurs have won 1 of their last 10 Premier League games and lost 7 of those fixtures. Tottenham Hotspur had lost 4 away League games in a row before the 1-1 draw at West Ham United earlier this month.
Wholesale changes were made for the game against Crystal Palace and the first half knock picked up by Dejan Kulusevski may mean the manager is not willing to risk any of his key players this Friday. The Swede should be fit for Bilbao next week, but James Maddison is set to miss out. Heung-Min Son returned from the bench following a layoff and may need a few more minutes of action.
Head to Head
Tottenham Hotspur thumped Aston Villa 4-1 at home in the Premier League, but the latter earned a measure of revenge by beating Spurs 2-1 at home in the FA Cup Fourth Round.
Aston Villa have won 1 of their last 9 home Premier League games against Tottenham Hotspur and have lost 8 of those, including a 0-4 humbling last season.
Prediction
It can sometimes be very difficult to ignore the kind of record that Tottenham Hotspur have put together in League visits to Villa Park and in other circumstances, 8 wins in 9 trips here would really stand out.
They had a similarly strong home record against Crystal Palace before the 0-2 defeat on Sunday and it had been recommended to back The Eagles on that day.
The simple fact is that Ange Postecoglou and the entire squad have been firmly fixed on the Europa League for some time and that has come at a cost to the Premier League form. The manager admitted that the changes he feels he has had to make for the Premier League games have not really been capitalised on by those players still fighting for places in the Final starting lineup, but Postecoglou is also clear that it is all about that Final when it comes to his priorities.
After seeing Dejan Kulusevski pick up a knock, you have to believe Tottenham Hotspur will travel with the majority of their key players wrapped in cotton wool. Ultimately taking risks to win here doesn't seem like something Ange Postecoglou will want to do if it means losing next week and you have to believe the starting line up will be compromised with that Final in mind.
Even if some important players are given minutes, for example Heung-Min Son who has only just returned from injury, the manager is not going to push them too hard.
And it should be remembered that players are human beings- there is going to be a natural drop in intensity with players keen to be ready for the Europa League Final and all of that plays into the hands of Unai Emery and his Aston Villa team.
Lacking intensity has not been a problem for Aston Villa and especially not at Villa Park, while the motivation to get into the top five and put the pressure on their rivals for those places should keep the squad focused. Injuries to Youri Tielemans and Marcus Rashford are a blow and Jacob Ramsey's suspension hurts, but Emery should be hugely encouraged by how easily Crystal Palace cut through Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday.
7 straight home wins have been produced thanks to some very good play in the final third and Aston Villa may secure a second home win over Tottenham Hotspur this season and with room to spare. The 2-1 scoreline looks closer than it was in the FA Cup Fourth Round meeting and a similar Tottenham Hotspur starting line up may struggle to contain the hosts chasing a return to the Champions League.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Aston Villa 3-1 Tottenham Hotspur
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back Aston Villa - 1.5 Asian Handicap at 2.01 with Bet365
